Home»rge-staff (Page 4)

Roubini Global Thought Leaders

For Every Seller There’s a Buyer

Whenever you see “money going into/out of XYZ”, your bullshit detector should go off — it usually indicates a lack of understanding of markets. Day-to-day, bonds and stocks and currencies…

Tim Harford on UK Budget

In an opinion piece in yesterday’s FT, Tim Harford shows what his simple UK budget ideas of “short-term stimulus; long-term fiscal consolidation; and reform aiming at a sane system of…

US $707 Trillion

And growing fast. The Doomsday Machine is loaded and fully protecting the TBTF banks in the safe Nash Equilibrium of MAD and we’re finally back above pre-Lehman levels with a…

MENA/Kuwait: Not All Cabinet Shuffles Are Alike…

It’s looking more and more precarious to be a member of the cabinet in the Middle East and North Africa… at least in terms of job security. Along with new subsidies, public housing investment and public sector wage hikes, cabinet shuffles have emerged a primary tool for rulers to deflect criticism, signal a policy change (even if one is not forthcoming) and to stall for time. Last week both the Syrian and Kuwaiti cabinets resigned in the face of political pressure. This follows resignations in Jordan, Egypt (several), Tunisia and Lebanon, the latter because Hezbollah withdrew from the inactive parliament back in January.…

RGE’s Wednesday Note – Fallout From the MENA Days of Rage

The political situation throughout the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is still in flux, with a rotating cast of countries carrying on “days of rage” and several regimes, including Libya’s, teetering. The overthrow of the Egyptian and Tunisian leaders has energized populations and opposition groups—leaders will no longer be able to rely solely on the old playbook of repression and subsidies. Regardless of how the political developments play out, all the regimes in the region have been challenged, and the populations will not be content with business as usual. In fact, many members of Tunisia’s caretaker government resigned this week as protesters demanded a government untainted by members of the old regime. In our latest MENA Focus, we consider what the recent political shake-up could mean for regional economies, their neighbors and their trading partners.…

Political Uncertainty Across the MENA Region

Overall, the economic and political outlook has become more clouded for the MENA region, even for the oil exporting nations that should stand to benefit from higher fuel prices, at least until demand destruction kicks in. As the chart below shows, demographic traits and unemployment levels contribute to this uncertainty to different degrees, depending on the country. Across the region, governments have responded with a mixture of reinforcing food subsidies, transfers to the population and, increasingly, more extensive use of force.…

Can World Cup Frenzy Keep Qatar Growing After Gas Momentum Fades?

It’s a very big day for Qatar. As a long-time watcher of Russia and Qatar, among other hydrocarbon rich countries, the news that the countries will host consecutive world cups is really quite exciting. The decision is a leap of faith for FIFA, as the WSJ’s Matthew Futterman put it earlier today, as both countries still need a lot of infrastructure development.  As David Roberts notes, Qatar is set to be even more in the spotlight, including in some ways it may not like. Though, these are after all events that are eight and twelve years in the future.…