The Wilder View

State GDP shows a manufacturing rebound in 2012

State GDP shows the following in 2012: durable goods manufacturing and finance and insurance are primary drivers of cross-sectional growth. This confirms the national story, according to the BEA.

A state-level breakdown shows strong (a surge in) economic activity in North Dakota, Oregon, Texas, and Utah, as 2012 real GDP was the highest in these economies compared to a long-term average (since 1997): 55%, 33.2%, 26%, and 25.3%, respectively (see Table in appendix). In contrast, 2012 real GDP in Missouri, Ohio, Michigan, and Connecticut were the worst performers compared to their long-term averages at 5.6%, 4.2%, 2.3%, and -2.4%, respectively.

A couple of articles from My San Antonio and Money paint of a picture of an oil/gas boom driving capital investment in Texas and North Dakota. Tech manufacturing is adding to Oregon’s GDP to the tune of a 2.87% contribution in 2012. Texas and North Dakota are benefiting from the oil and investment boom. However, in looking at the accounts for these two states, the economic improvement is rather broad based. In North Dakota, for example, construction and real estate added 2.37% to the total 13.4% annual growth – striking. Connecticut is an interesting case – apparently the consolidation of the hedge fund industry is having a large and adverse effect on the economy, as finance and insurance pulled the economy down -0.57% and more than offset the positive gains from durable goods manufacturing (+0.46% in 2012). And perhaps Ohio stands to gain from the shale gas boom.

On jobs at the aggregate level, we saw last week that growth in manufacturing correlated with growth in manufacturing jobs in 2012. Likewise for finance and insurance industries – see graph below and here. But in 2013, manufacturing jobs have been dropping.

Overall, the aggregated and State GDP data suggest that durable goods manufacturing was a big driver of the economy in 2012 In looking at the state by state comparison, I wonder how much of that is being driven by structural shifts related to oil and gas drilling and production. Perhaps I’ll do a little more research in this area.

I’m open to comments.

Appendix: Here is the full cross-section of 2012 real GDP relative to the long-term average for the US states.

3 Responses to “State GDP shows a manufacturing rebound in 2012”

rjsigmundJuly 9th, 2013 at 10:45 am

this is pretty unique; i dont recall seeing state level GDP coverage done nationally before…

anecdotally, i would guess almost all those jobs in north dakota are related to the expansion that came with the exploitation of the Bakken…i have covered the Bakken several times from the energy angle, but also noted that hundreds of oil field workers were still living in their cars in the Willston Walmart parking lot; a correspondent from WA who's son has taken a construction job there is living in a "lodge" made of portable units (… ) and expects to be making $40 /hr soon…the influx of a large number of highly paid workers into a relatively unpopulated area is bound to throw off quite a bit of ancillary economic activity…

rjsigmundJuly 9th, 2013 at 10:45 am

on shale jobs in ohio, i have the data:
mining & logging includes oil, gas, coal, other mining, logging and support activities; total currently employed in ohio 12,500
historical data:
ten years ago, there were 11,700 jobs in those categories…
which means that on net, ~ 800 additional jobs in oil, gas, coal, other mining, logging and support activities have been created in ohio over ten years, about 80 jobs a year..

windrivenJuly 20th, 2013 at 4:02 pm

"On jobs at the aggregate level, we saw last week that growth in manufacturing correlated with growth in manufacturing jobs in 2012."

I'm having a very hard time correlating this assertion with the accompanying chart that shows a decidedly negative trend in mfg jobs in 2012.

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