Peterson Institute for International Economics

Roubini Topic Archive: Trade and External Balance

  • Reauthorize the Export-Import Bank: Part II

    Reauthorization of the Export-Import Bank is stalled in Congress because of opposition from odd bedfellows. The issue has been addressed previously in this forum, but in this posting a solution to the impasse is offered that could clear the way for funding a vital federal program. Before we get to that drama, it’s worth considering […]

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  • China’s Rebalancing Will Not Be Automatic

    The imminent rebalancing of China’s economy has been forecast repeatedly over the past several years. With the shrinking of China’s external surplus during 2011, proponents of this argument have all but declared victory. The decrease of the current account surplus, from 10.1 per cent in 2007 to less than 3 per cent in 2011, is a […]

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  • The KORUS Blues

    Setting aside Syria, South Korea may be the only country in the world with politics more polarized than the United States. While in Seoul last week I was reminded of this when the leaders of the political opposition attempted to march on the US embassy to deliver letters addressed to President Obama and Vice President […]

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  • The Internal Cost of China’s Currency Policy

    By Joseph E. Gagnon, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Nicholas Borst It is currently costing the Chinese central bank about $240 billion per year to hold down the value of the Chinese currency relative to other currencies.  This cost is growing rapidly.  The cost would decrease significantly if China allowed its currency to float and began […]

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  • The G-20’s Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture

    The G-20 Agriculture Ministers met in Paris last June 22 and 23 to tackle the issue of food price volatility with the goal to improve food security. The Ministerial Declaration “Action Plan on Food Price Volatility and Agriculture” is a 24-page document whose main objectives are: 1) improve agricultural production and productivity to respond to […]

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  • Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: Faustian Bargain to Trade Technology for Access?

    Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on “Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and US-China Bilateral Investment” March 30, 2011

    What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? How are foreign manufacturing MNCs changing the skill intensity of activities and the extent of value-added of operations within the domestic Chinese economy?

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  • The Shadow Cast by U.S. Debt

    Carmen M. Reinhart discusses how history teaches that large public and private debt impedes economic growth, a lesson that the United States must heed in the years ahead.

    Edited transcript, recorded February 18, 2011. © Peterson Institute for International Economics. 

    Steve Weisman: It’s budget season, and Washington is dealing with steps to curb the American overhang of debt. This is Steve Weisman at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and with pleasure I welcome Carmen Reinhart, new senior fellow here at the Institute, for her first Peterson Perspectives interview. Thanks for joining me, Carmen.

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  • The End of the Beginning for the Euro Crisis

    The European Union Council, meeting in the first week of February, did not produce the “comprehensive long-term solution” to the eurozone’s debt crisis that some had hoped. Yet, EU leaders did agree on a deadline to produce their version of such a solution at the next Council in late March 20111, and they offered the general policy direction of the content of this long-term package. The EU and eurozone in particular are finally approaching the end of the beginning of the euro crisis, which is gradually being reflected in the calming eurozone financial markets.

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  • A Breakthrough on the Reminbi?

    There are encouraging signs that a breakthrough may have been achieved in the long-running debate over the exchange rate of China’s currency, the renminbi. Its real rate against the dollar is now rising at an annual rate of 10 to 12 percent, which if continued would complete the needed correction of 20 to 30 percent over two to three years, and official US reactions suggest that assurances that the adjustment will continue may have been received. This movement appears to derive from effective US pressure, increasing expressions of concern about the issue from other countries (especially a number of major emerging markets) and, most importantly, changes in economic conditions in China itself.

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  • US-China Trade Disputes Could Grow

    Gary Clyde Hufbauer says that while the specific trade disputes the United States has with China are in line with the levels experienced with other countries, those with China are likely to grow.

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