Roubini Topic Archive: Russia
Op-ed in the Moscow Times
November 25, 2010
In my September 3, 2008, column titled “10 Reasons Why the Russian Economy Will Falter,” I saw no reason why economic growth would continue. At the time, most economic analysts argued that Russia was a safe haven and predicted growth of 7 percent to 8 percent in 2009. Instead, gross domestic product plummeted by 8 percent in 2009.
During the past two years, the mood in Russia has changed profoundly. Euphoria and complacency have been replaced with cynicism and pessimism. A broad conviction has spread that the country is condemned to a growth rate of, at most, 3 percent to 4 percent a year.
Uniquely BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) has become a political grouping after having been invented by Jim O’Neill at Goldman Sachs. In June 2009, Russia organized the first BRIC summit, but will it hold?
The emerging economies will soon account for most of the world economy. We are at a crossroads of world history, as Oswald Spengler caught in his pessimistic 1918 book Der Untergang des Abendlandes or Paul Kennedy in his 1988 book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.
Op-ed in the Moscow Times: It cannot be denied: Exchange rate policy around the world is confused and lacks theoretical ground. Although the degree of confusion varies, Russia is close to taking the prize. Before World War I, it was easy. Just about everybody used the gold standard, and if any country faced too high […]