Peterson Institute for International Economics

Roubini Topic Archive: Northeast Asia

  • China: Capital Stock….and Flow

    Recently there have been several articles written on the China’s capital stock. The argument in most of these pieces is that China’s capital stock per capita is low and thus claims of overinvestment in China are incorrect. Just to recap, the capital stock is a broad measure of the existing physical capital in an economy. […]

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  • Can Microcredit Lenders Fill the Gap?

    The Chinese press is full of stories documenting the difficulties small and medium enterprises (SMEs) have obtaining financing. Contrary to popular belief, the problem is not that SMEs are being crowded out by large enterprises. The SME share of total business loans has been relatively stable in the past several years. Moreover, the pace of […]

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  • Chinese Household Wealth and the Housing Market

    The Chinese housing market is clearly undergoing a correction that may eventually bring housing prices back to a more reasonable level. As the past several years have made all too apparent, housing downturns are economically painful and can lead to larger economic crises. The network of financial leverage that fueled the US housing bubble turned […]

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  • North Korea’s Surprising Steps: ‘Modest’ Progress

    In the wake of the death of Kim Jong-il, there were questions as to whether anyone was in charge in Pyongyang.  Now we know that someone is capable of making decisions and their first one constitutes a conciliatory (indeed, concessionary), not belligerent, gesture. The agreement does not completely freeze the North Korean nuclear program but […]

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  • Oops, I Underestimated China’s GDP

    More than a year ago, I argued that China’s GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars had overtaken that of the United States in 2010. This calculation is used in my book, Eclipse: Living in the Shadow of China’s Economic Dominance and plays a role in my conclusion that China has overtaken or is close […]

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  • China: Capital Account Liberalization and the Corporate Bond Market

    The People’s Bank of China (PBoC) released a report (Chinese language) this week that focused on prospects for capital account liberalization. Opening up the capital account would be a major reform, perhaps the most significant in a more than a decade. It would give Chinese savers an escape hatch from financial repression and force the […]

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  • The Link Between China’s Property Market and Local Government Finances

    The importance of the property market to China’s investors, savers and banks is well known, but its impact on local governments is less well understood. The ability of Chinese local governments to service the debt they have built up over the past several years, 10.7 trillion RMB at the end of 2010, relies heavily upon […]

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  • The Internal Cost of China’s Currency Policy

    By Joseph E. Gagnon, Nicholas R. Lardy, and Nicholas Borst It is currently costing the Chinese central bank about $240 billion per year to hold down the value of the Chinese currency relative to other currencies.  This cost is growing rapidly.  The cost would decrease significantly if China allowed its currency to float and began […]

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  • Japan: An Opportunity Slipping Away?

    Last month, in a Washington Post outlook piece, I argued that if handled adroitly, the triple crisis facing Japan could be used to modernize the country’s politics. The government’s response to the disaster has been anything but adroit, and the opportunity to use the crisis to propel the nation forward is slipping away.

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  • Foreign Manufacturing Multinationals and the Transformation of the Chinese Economy: Faustian Bargain to Trade Technology for Access?

    Testimony before the US-China Economic and Security Review Commission Hearing on “Chinese State-Owned Enterprises and US-China Bilateral Investment” March 30, 2011

    What is the relationship between foreign manufacturing multinational corporations (MNCs) and the expansion of indigenous technological and managerial technological capabilities among Chinese firms? How are foreign manufacturing MNCs changing the skill intensity of activities and the extent of value-added of operations within the domestic Chinese economy?

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