EconoMonitor

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Roubini Topic Archive: Geostrategy

  • Endgame in Greece: Don’t Look for an Imminent ‘Grexit’

    As the countdown toward a new Greek election heads toward June 17, most analysts predict an imminent Greek exit from the euro area. Almost anything can happen, but a few possibilities are worth considering. Any newly elected Greek government will have trouble implementing the current austerity program called for by euro leaders and the International […]

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  • Gasoline Prices and Electoral Politics in the Age of Unconventional Oil

    With average US gasoline prices approaching $4 per gallon, markets are trying to gauge the impact of high oil costs on a fragile US economic recovery. Some analysts have argued that surging unconventional oil production in North America will make this price spike less harmful than those in the past. But for the political class, […]

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  • Will the French Elections Derail the Fiscal Compact in Europe?

    On March 2, 25 European Union members signed their long-discussed fiscal compact, the treaty committing them to balance their budgets in the future, paving the way for national ratification of the compact before January 2013. Most analysts expect the compact to be ratified in most countries. But a few signs of doubt have emerged over […]

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  • Why President Obama Can Stop Worrying About Europe

    Can President Obama’s increasingly confident reelection drive come undone because of the economic turmoil in Europe? That is a question that many in the White House are said to be worrying about. The fears have some foundation based on recent experience. The relatively strong US economic recovery in early 2010—3.9 percent growth in the first […]

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  • Why Greece Must Not Leave the Euro Area

    The two most crucial questions about the Greek public debt crisis have been whether the country would be forced to default on its public debt and whether it would have to leave the euro area. At present Greece has pursued an orderly default on its privately held debt, but it remains in the euro area. […]

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  • North Korea’s Surprising Steps: ‘Modest’ Progress

    In the wake of the death of Kim Jong-il, there were questions as to whether anyone was in charge in Pyongyang.  Now we know that someone is capable of making decisions and their first one constitutes a conciliatory (indeed, concessionary), not belligerent, gesture. The agreement does not completely freeze the North Korean nuclear program but […]

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  • An Alternative for Greece: An Incomes Policy to Achieve Internal Devaluation

    The sad fact is that no one outside officialdom (who are duty-bound to talk nonsense when sense is too embarrassing) seems to regard the recent privately held debt write-down and second Greek bailout as likely to offer an exit to Greece from its nightmare, even in the long run. The reason is simple: Greek competitiveness […]

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  • Brinkmanship in Brussels, Sturm and Drachma for Greece and Europe

    Just as it did when Congress recently extended the payroll tax cut, brinkmanship has produced a deal in Europe to extend a new lifeline to Greece and clear the way for the biggest sovereign bond restructuring in history. Both pieces of the agreement—the privately held Greek debt write-down of more than €100 billion and the […]

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  • Iran’s Food Supply Gets Pinched

    Washington and Brussels are trying to curb Iranian oil revenue in a bid to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But it appears financial sanctions imposed by the West are having a more immediate impact on what Iran buys from abroad rather than what it sells. Reports this week suggest Iranian companies are […]

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  • The KORUS Blues

    Setting aside Syria, South Korea may be the only country in the world with politics more polarized than the United States. While in Seoul last week I was reminded of this when the leaders of the political opposition attempted to march on the US embassy to deliver letters addressed to President Obama and Vice President […]

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