EconoMonitor

Peterson Institute for International Economics

Roubini Topic Archive: Foreign and Domestic Political Risk

  • The Political Redefinition of Europe

    Opening remarks at the Swedish Financial Markets Committee’s (FMK) Conference on “The European Parliament and the Financial Markets,” Stockholm, June 8, 2012 For the past few years, headlines in Europe have been dominated by the financial and economic developments of the crisis, first in the banking system and then in sovereign debt markets. Throughout this period […]

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  • Endgame in Greece: Don’t Look for an Imminent ‘Grexit’

    As the countdown toward a new Greek election heads toward June 17, most analysts predict an imminent Greek exit from the euro area. Almost anything can happen, but a few possibilities are worth considering. Any newly elected Greek government will have trouble implementing the current austerity program called for by euro leaders and the International […]

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  • Gasoline Prices and Electoral Politics in the Age of Unconventional Oil

    With average US gasoline prices approaching $4 per gallon, markets are trying to gauge the impact of high oil costs on a fragile US economic recovery. Some analysts have argued that surging unconventional oil production in North America will make this price spike less harmful than those in the past. But for the political class, […]

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  • Will the French Elections Derail the Fiscal Compact in Europe?

    On March 2, 25 European Union members signed their long-discussed fiscal compact, the treaty committing them to balance their budgets in the future, paving the way for national ratification of the compact before January 2013. Most analysts expect the compact to be ratified in most countries. But a few signs of doubt have emerged over […]

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  • Why President Obama Can Stop Worrying About Europe

    Can President Obama’s increasingly confident reelection drive come undone because of the economic turmoil in Europe? That is a question that many in the White House are said to be worrying about. The fears have some foundation based on recent experience. The relatively strong US economic recovery in early 2010—3.9 percent growth in the first […]

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  • North Korea’s Surprising Steps: ‘Modest’ Progress

    In the wake of the death of Kim Jong-il, there were questions as to whether anyone was in charge in Pyongyang.  Now we know that someone is capable of making decisions and their first one constitutes a conciliatory (indeed, concessionary), not belligerent, gesture. The agreement does not completely freeze the North Korean nuclear program but […]

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  • Brinkmanship in Brussels, Sturm and Drachma for Greece and Europe

    Just as it did when Congress recently extended the payroll tax cut, brinkmanship has produced a deal in Europe to extend a new lifeline to Greece and clear the way for the biggest sovereign bond restructuring in history. Both pieces of the agreement—the privately held Greek debt write-down of more than €100 billion and the […]

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  • Iran’s Food Supply Gets Pinched

    Washington and Brussels are trying to curb Iranian oil revenue in a bid to convince Tehran to abandon its nuclear weapons program. But it appears financial sanctions imposed by the West are having a more immediate impact on what Iran buys from abroad rather than what it sells. Reports this week suggest Iranian companies are […]

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  • How Euro Brinkmanship Is Beginning to Succeed

    European Union leaders had the umpteenth euro crisis summit at the end of January. Indeed the EU Council meets so often that the descriptions of these gatherings should be changed from “yet another summit” to “back in session.” The slide to near-permanent policymaking has occurred as the EU Council begins to resemble a sitting parliament. […]

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  • The Failed Political Economy of the Euro Crisis

    The euro crisis has been extensively discussed in terms of economics, finance, political intrigues, and European institutions, but a key aspect—the political economy of the crisis—has received little attention. Politicians and social scientists from emerging economies, not least from Eastern Europe, look with amazement at this oversight. Europeans need to absorb and apply the lessons […]

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