Peterson Institute for International Economics

Roubini Topic Archive: Emerging Europe and CIS

  • Washington and Kiev: Progress and Problems

    On July 7, three prominent Washington think tanks — the Atlantic Council, the Brookings Institution and the Peterson Institute for International Economics — organized a big conference on Challenges and Impact of Governance in Ukraine. It was held at the Peterson Institute in Washington. This conference attracted no fewer than 300 participants, including 50 representatives […]

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  • 10 Reasons Why the Russian Economy Will Recover

    Op-ed in the Moscow Times

    November 25, 2010

    In my September 3, 2008, column titled “10 Reasons Why the Russian Economy Will Falter,” I saw no reason why economic growth would continue. At the time, most economic analysts argued that Russia was a safe haven and predicted growth of 7 percent to 8 percent in 2009. Instead, gross domestic product plummeted by 8 percent in 2009.

    During the past two years, the mood in Russia has changed profoundly. Euphoria and complacency have been replaced with cynicism and pessimism. A broad conviction has spread that the country is condemned to a growth rate of, at most, 3 percent to 4 percent a year.

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  • The Sun Is Rising in the East

    What hand wringing there has been recently on both sides of the Atlantic as the major European economies pursue austerity in their budgets and social programs! But is it not overdone? Europeans and Americans need only look east—to the European Union’s new eastern members—to see that austerity can deliver growth and improve the efficiency of the European economic and social systems.

    Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria were hit by profound financial crisis in late 2008, but their cure has proven effective. Almost all East European economies are growing and their public sectors have become leaner and more efficient.

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  • Going from State Capitalism to Pragmatism

    Op-ed in the Moscow Times June 23, 2010  The most striking thing about this year’s St. Petersburg International Economic Forum was Russia’s new, pragmatic consensus. President Dmitry Medvedev put it succinctly in the title of his introductory speech: “We have changed.” The pretexts of building state capitalism are gone and replaced by pragmatic problem solving. […]

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  • Does Russia Belong in the BRICs?

    Uniquely BRICs (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) has become a political grouping after having been invented by Jim O’Neill at Goldman Sachs. In June 2009, Russia organized the first BRIC summit, but will it hold?

    The emerging economies will soon account for most of the world economy. We are at a crossroads of world history, as Oswald Spengler caught in his pessimistic 1918 book Der Untergang des Abendlandes or Paul Kennedy in his 1988 book The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers.

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  • The Leader of the CIS Is Lonely and Weak

    Op-ed in the Moscow Times October 28, 2009 Russia’s relations with its neighbors are worse than ever, and this is particularly true among the former Soviet republics. On October 9, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) held its annual summit in Chisinau. The Nezavisimaya Gazeta headline said it all: “Summit in 30 Minutes. CIS Leaders […]

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  • Latvia, Lithuania, and the IMF

    The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has had a good year in Eastern Europe. It has been called to help numerous countries and it has acted fast and generously. It has learned several lessons from the East Asia financial crisis of 1997–98, which was very similar. The East European crisis is primarily a current-account crisis, not […]

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  • The Ruble as a Global Reserve Currency? No!

    Op-Ed in the Moscow Times Do you remember the Kremlin hubris of the summer of 2008? Forget it! The ruble cannot possibly become a reserve currency for the next half-century. To become a major financial center, Moscow needs many years of serious reforms not even contemplated today. In June 2008, Prime Minister Vladimir Putin proclaimed, […]

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  • Control High Inflation, Not Exchange Rates

    Op-ed in the Moscow Times: It cannot be denied: Exchange rate policy around the world is confused and lacks theoretical ground. Although the degree of confusion varies, Russia is close to taking the prize. Before World War I, it was easy. Just about everybody used the gold standard, and if any country faced too high […]

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