EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Roubini Topic Archive: Portugal

  • The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems

    Financial conditions in the eurozone have significantly improved since the summer, when eurozone risks peaked because of German policymakers’ open consideration of a Greek exit, and the sovereign spreads of Italy and Spain reached new heights. The day before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s famous speech in London in which he announced that the […]

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  • A Divorce Settlement for the Eurozone

    From the FT: The European Central Bank has averted disaster, sparking a powerful relief rally – but nothing fundamental has been resolved. Greece may need another debt restructuring; Portugal and Ireland may need restructuring too. Spain and Italy may yet come under the gun. Banking crises are hardly ever resolved without removing toxic assets or […]

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  • CNBC Video and Report – Portugal to Fall, Greece to Leave Euro Zone: Roubini

    CNBC — Portugal is likely to be the next to restructure its debt and exit the euro zone, economist Nouriel Roubini predicted on CNBC Friday. There are several euro-zone countries in trouble, including Italy and Spain, but Roubini sees Portugal as the weakest. The longtime bear and chairman of Roubini Global Economics said the Greek […]

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  • A Loan and a Prayer

    From Project Syndicate:  

    By Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm

    The countries known collectively as the PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain – are burdened with increasingly unsustainable levels of public and private debt.   Several of the worst-hit – Portugal, Ireland, and Greece – have seen their borrowing costs soar to record highs in recent weeks, even after their loss of market access led to bailouts financed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Spanish borrowing costs are also rising.

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  • Portugal: Policy Postcard From the Edge—Third Time Unlucky?

    My recent trip to Lisbon and policy meetings suggest a very fragile political and economic/financial outlook for Portugal. The election result may confirm the current political stalemate, leading to a center-right government with a very thin majority or a grand coalition. Read the rest of my analysis in my RGE paper: Portugal: Policy Postcard From […]

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  • Spiegel Interview with Nouriel Roubini: Europe Needs Growth to Prevent a Collapse of the Euro

    DER SPIEGEL:

    Europe, says star economist Nouriel Roubini, needs to take immediate action to shore up the euro. In an interview with SPIEGEL, Roubini said Germany must provide more money to defend the common currency and allow the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy. Otherwise, disaster could be looming.

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  • An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches

    Ireland is now on the verge of following Greece into the Land of Lost Market Access. At the same time, sovereign spreads continue to widen for the rest of the PIIGS (especially Portugal but also for Spain and Italy). If, as appears likely, Ireland ends up losing market access, the short term response of the EU will be feature a rerun of last spring’s Greek solution: kicking the can down the road with a bailout package (a combination of EFSF support and IMF loans) to prevent systemic contagion spreading to the rest of the eurozone and to global financial markets. The same prescription awaits should Portugal lose market access in the next few months.

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  • Roubini Hosts CNBC Squawk Box – Europe: Contagion 2.0

    CNBC VIDEO — Roubini and Bremmer on Crisis Economics Click for report by Ash Bennington, NetNet Writer, Special to CNBC.com CNBC — Roubini Maps Out Nightmare Scenario of Domino Debt Collapse in Europe All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC

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  • Irish Woes Should Speed Europe’s Default Plan

    From the Financial Times:

    As the European Union attempts to force it to accept an aid package, Ireland’s government is close to being unable to sell its debt on the open market, a fate that befell Greece last spring. Bond spreads in Spain, Italy and Portugal are also rising, with the Portuguese finance minister warning on Monday that his country may have to accept a rescue package too.
     
    In the short term the EU will kick the can down the road via a temporary Irish bail-out, just as it did with Greece. It is likely to do the same with Portugal. But it has finally dawned on the EU that a rolling process that places private bank losses on to public balance sheets could leave its governments insolvent too.

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  • CNBC – Roubini on the Market Fall

    CNBCDiscussing the fate of the markets and the impact the Greek contagion is likely to have on the rest of the world, with Nouriel Roubini, roubini.com. (Click for Video [3:51])

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    CNBC — Investors need to be risk averse and say in cash, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Thursday after riots broke out in Greece following the passage of an austerity program.

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