Roubini Topic Archive: Labor Markets and Productivity
From Newsweek:The traditional Chinese model of economic growth required the U.S. and a few other countries to be consumers of first and last resort, spending more than their income and running ever-larger trade deficits—so that China could be the producer of first and last resort, spending less than its income and building ever-larger trade surpluses. That model is now challenged, if not altogether broken, because the excessive accumulation of private and public debt and deficit by the U.S. has forced a painful deleveraging: the overindebted U.S. consumer needs to spend and consume less, import less, and save more to reduce debt. Indeed, as the U.S. trade deficit shrinks, the Chinese trade surplus has been sharply shrinking, too.
Roubini assesses the U.S. Economy on the Rachel Maddow Show – MSNBC. Rachel Maddow Dr. Doom Assesses Efforts to Restart the Economy. Click for Video [6:20] Post Show Interview. Click for Video [12:30]
CNBC Video — Roubini Predicts “Fiscal Train Wreck” (Click for VIDEO [5:10]) CNBC — With the GOP slated to take over the House, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, tells CNBC the Congressional gridlock will get even worse, leading to a “fiscal train wreck.” All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC
From Foreign Policy:
How Obama can save the fragile economy from going back into a tailspin.
Roughly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy increasingly looks vulnerable to falling back into recession. The United States is flirting with “stall speed,” an anemic rate of growth that, if it persists, can lead to collapses in spending, consumer confidence, credit, and other crucial engines of growth. Call it a “double dip” or the Great Recession, Round II: Whatever the term, we’re talking about a negative feedback loop that would be devilishly hard to break.
Yuan Revaluation for China’s Own Sake
By Peter Stein
U.S. lawmakers have put China’s currency policy high up on America’s political agenda. Nouriel Roubini believes it ought to be even higher on China’s economic agenda.
The famously gloomy economist, known in part for his prescient views ahead of the global financial crisis, says China needs to revalue its currency, the yuan, not because failure to do so hurts the U.S. Rather, keeping the yuan artificially low will lead China’s own economy to hit a dangerous “growth wall” in the next two to three years, he said in an interview on the sidelines of the World Capital Markets Symposium in Kuala Lumpur last week.
From the Washington Post:
Nearly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the continued weakness of the labor and real estate markets, U.S. consumers’ unbalanced balance sheets and fading support from policy stimulus have transformed the risk of a double-dip recession from unlikely to about a 40 percent likelihood. The government responded creatively and massively to the near collapse of the U.S. financial system: The Troubled Assets Relief Program, stimulus spending and near-zero interest rates for nearly two years prevented a second Great Depression.
I am happy to say that I will be giving another speech at the IMF on Friday, September 17th, 2010, on the downside risks to the U.S. and the global economic outlook.
Many of you have asked me for the now infamous speech that I gave at the IMF on September 7, 2006 with my views about the housing bust, the credit crunch, the likely banking crisis and insolvency of Fannie and Freddie, the oil shock and the severe recession and financial crisis that would follow those shocks.
Below is the full transcript of that speech:
INTERNATIONAL MONETARY FUND BOOK FORUMS AND INTERNATIONAL SEMINARS LECTURE AND DISCUSSION WITH NOURIEL ROUBINI
Washington, D.C. Thursday, September 7, 2006 Transcript of an IMF Seminar Nouriel Roubini on the U.S. and Global Outlook
Participants: Nouriel Roubini NYU, Anirvan Banerji ECRI, Moderated by: Charles Collyns Deputy Director, Research Department, IMF Introduction by Charles Collyns
CNBC Squawk Box — Roubini’s Economic Outlook (Click for VIDEO [2:58]) CNBC — What to expect for the second half of the year, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman. ———————————- CNBC Squawk Box — Getting Real with “the Realist” (Click for VIDEO [11:17]) CNBC — Why the European stress tests were not stressful […]
Roubini and El-Erian on CNBC’s Squawk Box: Double Dip Risk, Growth vs. Fiscal Consolidation, Future of the Eurozone
CNBC.com — Double Dip Risk is Rising in the Eurozone
Panel Discussion from the Milken Institute Global Conference: Global Financial Markets: Nouriel Roubini and Mike Milken Debate Where We’ve Been – Where We’re Going
[81:52, panel discussion starts at 9:00]
Michael Milken, Chairman, Milken Institute
Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Roubini Global Economics, Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University
Matthew Winkler, Editor-in-Chief, Bloomberg News