EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Roubini Topic Archive: Italy

  • The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems

    Financial conditions in the eurozone have significantly improved since the summer, when eurozone risks peaked because of German policymakers’ open consideration of a Greek exit, and the sovereign spreads of Italy and Spain reached new heights. The day before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s famous speech in London in which he announced that the […]

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  • A Divorce Settlement for the Eurozone

    From the FT: The European Central Bank has averted disaster, sparking a powerful relief rally – but nothing fundamental has been resolved. Greece may need another debt restructuring; Portugal and Ireland may need restructuring too. Spain and Italy may yet come under the gun. Banking crises are hardly ever resolved without removing toxic assets or […]

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  • Italy’s Debt Must Be Restructured

    Here is my latest article from the Financial Times: It is increasingly clear that Italy’s public debt is unsustainable and needs an orderly restructuring to avert a disorderly default. The eurozone’s wish to exclude private sector involvement from the design of the new European Stability Mechanism is pig-headed – and lacks all credibility. With public […]

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  • Why Italy’s Days in the Eurozone May Be Numbered

    From the Financial Times: With interest rates on its sovereign debt surging well above seven per cent, there is a rising risk that Italy may soon lose market access. Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt of €1,900bn. That would partially address its […]

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  • Nouriel Roubini’s 2006 Speech at Davos-WEF Warning That Italy and PIGS May Experience Debt Crisis and EZ Break-Up in 5 years; and Tremonti’s Reaction to the Speech

    Here is a post from my blog from January 28, 2006: On Friday I was in Davos on a panel on the “Ups and Downs of EMU” (European Monetary Union) where ECB head Trichet, Italian Economy Minister Tremonti, a few other EU officials and myself were supposed to discuss the following questions: Will EMU collapse […]

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  • Roubini Hosts CNBC Squawk Box – Europe: Contagion 2.0

    CNBC VIDEO — Roubini and Bremmer on Crisis Economics Click for report by Ash Bennington, NetNet Writer, Special to CNBC.com CNBC — Roubini Maps Out Nightmare Scenario of Domino Debt Collapse in Europe All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC

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  • Irish Woes Should Speed Europe’s Default Plan

    From the Financial Times:

    As the European Union attempts to force it to accept an aid package, Ireland’s government is close to being unable to sell its debt on the open market, a fate that befell Greece last spring. Bond spreads in Spain, Italy and Portugal are also rising, with the Portuguese finance minister warning on Monday that his country may have to accept a rescue package too.
     
    In the short term the EU will kick the can down the road via a temporary Irish bail-out, just as it did with Greece. It is likely to do the same with Portugal. But it has finally dawned on the EU that a rolling process that places private bank losses on to public balance sheets could leave its governments insolvent too.

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  • CNBC – Roubini on the Market Fall

    CNBCDiscussing the fate of the markets and the impact the Greek contagion is likely to have on the rest of the world, with Nouriel Roubini, roubini.com. (Click for Video [3:51])

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    CNBC — Investors need to be risk averse and say in cash, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Thursday after riots broke out in Greece following the passage of an austerity program.

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  • Roubini Concerns About the Future of the EMU – World Economic Forum, Davos, 2006

    While in the last few weeks it has become conventional wisdom to worry about the troubles of Greece and other PIIGS and to express concern about the future of the EMU, much of the recent market commentary sounds like Monday morning quarterbacking and worrying about a problem after it has emerged well into the daylight. But, some observers – Marty Feldstein of Harvard, Daniel Gros of CEPS, Martin Wolf of the FT and others like myself – were very early in expressing the concerns about the EMU that have now clearly emerged in the markets.

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  • The Debt Death Trap

    The Greek financial saga is the tip of an iceberg of problems of public-debt sustainability for many advanced economies, and not only the so-called PIIGS (Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece, and Spain). Indeed, the OECD now estimates that public debt-to-GDP ratios in advanced economies will rise to an average of around 100% of GDP. The International Monetary Fund has recently put out similar estimates.

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