EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Roubini Topic Archive: Ireland

  • The Year Ahead in the Eurozone: Lower Risks, Same Problems

    Financial conditions in the eurozone have significantly improved since the summer, when eurozone risks peaked because of German policymakers’ open consideration of a Greek exit, and the sovereign spreads of Italy and Spain reached new heights. The day before European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s famous speech in London in which he announced that the […]

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  • A Divorce Settlement for the Eurozone

    From the FT: The European Central Bank has averted disaster, sparking a powerful relief rally – but nothing fundamental has been resolved. Greece may need another debt restructuring; Portugal and Ireland may need restructuring too. Spain and Italy may yet come under the gun. Banking crises are hardly ever resolved without removing toxic assets or […]

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  • A Loan and a Prayer

    From Project Syndicate:  

    By Nouriel Roubini and Stephen Mihm

    The countries known collectively as the PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, Greece, and Spain – are burdened with increasingly unsustainable levels of public and private debt.   Several of the worst-hit – Portugal, Ireland, and Greece – have seen their borrowing costs soar to record highs in recent weeks, even after their loss of market access led to bailouts financed by the European Union and the International Monetary Fund. Spanish borrowing costs are also rising.

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  • Spiegel Interview with Nouriel Roubini: Europe Needs Growth to Prevent a Collapse of the Euro

    DER SPIEGEL:

    Europe, says star economist Nouriel Roubini, needs to take immediate action to shore up the euro. In an interview with SPIEGEL, Roubini said Germany must provide more money to defend the common currency and allow the European Central Bank to loosen monetary policy. Otherwise, disaster could be looming.

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  • An Orderly Market-Based Approach to the Restructuring of Eurozone Sovereign Debts Obviates the Need for Statutory Approaches

    Ireland is now on the verge of following Greece into the Land of Lost Market Access. At the same time, sovereign spreads continue to widen for the rest of the PIIGS (especially Portugal but also for Spain and Italy). If, as appears likely, Ireland ends up losing market access, the short term response of the EU will be feature a rerun of last spring’s Greek solution: kicking the can down the road with a bailout package (a combination of EFSF support and IMF loans) to prevent systemic contagion spreading to the rest of the eurozone and to global financial markets. The same prescription awaits should Portugal lose market access in the next few months.

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  • Comparing Spain With Ireland and Other PIIGS: Better in Some Ways, More at Risk in Others

    Contagion is spreading from Ireland to Spain, which shares some key vulnerabilities in the wake of its real estate boom/bust and large non-performing loan overhang in the banking sector. A house price comparison shows that the housing bubble in Spain was more pronounced than in the United States but less pronounced than in Ireland.

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  • Roubini Hosts CNBC Squawk Box – Europe: Contagion 2.0

    CNBC VIDEO — Roubini and Bremmer on Crisis Economics Click for report by Ash Bennington, NetNet Writer, Special to CNBC.com CNBC — Roubini Maps Out Nightmare Scenario of Domino Debt Collapse in Europe All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC

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  • Irish Woes Should Speed Europe’s Default Plan

    From the Financial Times:

    As the European Union attempts to force it to accept an aid package, Ireland’s government is close to being unable to sell its debt on the open market, a fate that befell Greece last spring. Bond spreads in Spain, Italy and Portugal are also rising, with the Portuguese finance minister warning on Monday that his country may have to accept a rescue package too.
     
    In the short term the EU will kick the can down the road via a temporary Irish bail-out, just as it did with Greece. It is likely to do the same with Portugal. But it has finally dawned on the EU that a rolling process that places private bank losses on to public balance sheets could leave its governments insolvent too.

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  • CNBC – Roubini on the Market Fall

    CNBCDiscussing the fate of the markets and the impact the Greek contagion is likely to have on the rest of the world, with Nouriel Roubini, roubini.com. (Click for Video [3:51])

    cnbc_nouriel_4610.jpg 

    CNBC — Investors need to be risk averse and say in cash, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Thursday after riots broke out in Greece following the passage of an austerity program.

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  • Roubini Concerns About the Future of the EMU – World Economic Forum, Davos, 2006

    While in the last few weeks it has become conventional wisdom to worry about the troubles of Greece and other PIIGS and to express concern about the future of the EMU, much of the recent market commentary sounds like Monday morning quarterbacking and worrying about a problem after it has emerged well into the daylight. But, some observers – Marty Feldstein of Harvard, Daniel Gros of CEPS, Martin Wolf of the FT and others like myself – were very early in expressing the concerns about the EMU that have now clearly emerged in the markets.

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