EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Roubini Topic Archive: Equity

  • The Year of Betting Conservatively

    The upswing in global equity markets that started in July is now running out of steam, which comes as no surprise: with no significant improvement in growth prospects in either the advanced or major emerging economies, the rally always seemed to lack legs. If anything, the correction might have come sooner, given disappointing macroeconomic data […]

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  • Hard to be Easing

    The United States Federal Reserve’s decision to undertake a third round of quantitative easing, or QE3, has raised three important questions. Will QE3 jump-start America’s anemic economic growth? Will it lead to a persistent increase in risky assets, especially in US and other global equity markets? Finally, will its effects on GDP growth and equity […]

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  • Steve Forbes Interviews Nouriel Roubini on the U.S. and Global Economy

    Intelligent Investing with Steve Forbes.  Click for Video [26:59]

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  • CNBC – Roubini on the Market Fall

    CNBCDiscussing the fate of the markets and the impact the Greek contagion is likely to have on the rest of the world, with Nouriel Roubini, roubini.com. (Click for Video [3:51])

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    CNBC — Investors need to be risk averse and say in cash, economist Nouriel Roubini told CNBC Thursday after riots broke out in Greece following the passage of an austerity program.

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  • Nothing “Perverse” about the Flight to Bonds

    The renowned CIO of Legg Mason, Bill Miller, has written an opinion piece in the FT today, criticizing investor preferences for bonds over equities, as demonstrated by the re-direction of equity fund flows toward bond funds. He believes that things are getting better, based on GDP numbers, credit spreads, and the level of bond re-financing. These are not, in our view, good indicators. GDP figures are, at best, inconclusive; the inventory cycle contributed 3.4 pp of the 5.7% Q4 GDP number and the other 2.3 pp is likely substantially stimulus-related. Furthermore, we could expect support from net exports to decline thanks to the rally in the dollar and the underlying causes of the risk aversion that drove it, i.e. the need for demand hitting fiscal adjustment in the eurozone periphery. Credit spreads have been distorted by extraordinary liquidity measures and a lack of imposed losses on debtholders and the level of bond re-financing reflects manufactured and unsustainably low rates. A constructive view on equities, in our view, necessarily assumes above-average inflation and good growth and underestimates the risk of a double-dip. This assumption stands in stark contrast with RGE’s forecast for anemic growth in the developed economies and glosses over significant slack in labor markets and excess capacity across sectors and regions.  

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  • RGE’s Wednesday Note – The Carry Trade in 2010

    A couple months ago, in a widely read FT op-ed, Nouriel Roubini warned that the “mother of all carry trades,” one funded in U.S. dollar denominated debt, could pump up asset bubbles around the world. This Monday RGE released two new reports, both available exclusively to clients, forecasting where and how this trend might unfold. Our macro analysis, “Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency-by-Currency Forecast for 2010,” estimates the interest rate paths and currency trends for several potential carry trade funding and recipient currencies. RGE’s strategy team then looks at implications of these potential rate moves for investors in a parallel analysis, “Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade.”

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  • Asset Price Co-Movements and the Dollar Carry Trade

    The ongoing dollar carry trade has recently come to the forefront of the international policy debate (Roubini, 2009). Capital inflows to emerging market countries have put pressures on some currencies, and authorities have responded by slowing the pace of appreciation, in some cases by capital controls. This short article uses a GARCH framework to examine […]

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  • CNBC Interview Discussing Carry Trades and Asset Bubbles

    CNBC — Roubini on Carry Trade (Click for VIDEO) [9:05]   CNBC — The mother of all carry trades faces an inevitable bust, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, told CNBC. _______________________________________ CNBC —  ‘Mother of Carry Trades’ Leading to ‘Asset Bust’: Roubini By: Jeff Cox The “mother of all carry trades” that Nouriel Roubini warned […]

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  • Bloomberg’s Reporting of my Remarks…

    From Bloomberg: Oct. 27 (Bloomberg) — Investors worldwide are borrowing dollars to buy assets including equities and commodities, fueling “huge” bubbles that may spark another financial crisis, said New York University professor Nouriel Roubini. “We have the mother of all carry trades,” Roubini, who predicted the banking crisis that spurred more than $1.6 trillion of […]

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  • BBC Video Interview

    BBC — World financial crisis ‘not over’ (Click for VIDEO) [2:17] BBC — Nouriel Roubini: “The real economy still looks very weak” By Michelle Fleury Business reporter, BBC News, New York The US economist widely credited with having predicted the financial crisis has warned we are already “planting the seeds of the next crisis”. Nouriel […]

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