Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

A Presidency Heading for a Fiscal Train Wreck

From the Financial Times:

What has been the fiscal performance of President Barack Obama? He inherited the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression, as well as a budget deficit that – after much needed bail-outs and a series of reckless tax cuts – was already close to $1,000bn. His stimulus package, together with a backstop of the financial system, low rates and quantitative easing from the Federal Reserve, prevented another depression. Mr Obama also deserves credit that the US, alone among advanced economies, currently supports a “growth now”, rather than an “austerity now” path.

But this is but one half of the picture; we must also judge his first two years on his ability to anticipate what the economy will need tomorrow. Here the picture is much less positive. Given the likely path of fiscal policy after next Tuesday’s election – with the expiration of existing stimulus and transfer payments, and even with most of the 2001-03 tax cuts being kept – the US economy will soon experience serious fiscal drag just when it needs a further boost. Problematically, the administration’s failures leave it relying on the Fed, which is bent on further QE, likely to be announced next Wednesday. But studies show this will have little effect on US growth in 2011, so fiscal policy should be doing some of the lifting to prevent a double dip recession.


Editor’s Note: This is an excerpt of a longer piece previously made available to RGE clients, U.S. Fiscal Policy: A Train Wreck Down the Line? by Nouriel Roubini

All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC

144 Responses to “A Presidency Heading for a Fiscal Train Wreck”

Modern Money MechanicsOctober 29th, 2010 at 11:12 pm

Dear Mr. President,There is a consensus that the economy is worse, not better. Despite your team’s best efforts, we see the nation’s economy as a wobbling, spinning top, slowly beginning to spin out of control.We assume your team members are telling you that we have to stick with the plan. If we do not stay with the plan, we risk more economic down turns and even the possible specter of societal collapse.You see that the economy is caught between the rock of immense debt and a hard spot of insolvency. These are indeed dire times and the problems appear to be intractable. You are faced with grim choices that may have catastrophic effects on the poor and middle class. Choices that turn a person’s hair prematurely gray.However, history shows us that other presidents such as Andrew Jackson, Abraham Lincoln, and John Kennedy faced similar dire circumstances and prevailed through a bold but simple economic move. (Let’s ignore Woodrow Wilson and Franklin Roosevelt for sake of argument.)Here is an alternative plan, inspired by these presidents, for your (new?) team members to consider. They would begin by declaring a banking holiday and…1. Remove the nation’s debt by saying all private Treasury bonds, notes, and bills are now cash. This would immediately remove the ~$14 trillion national debt and interest payments, yet keep the ~$14 trillion in highly liquid private Treasuries intact.2. Nationalize the Federal Reserve recalling the ~$800 billion in private-debt Federal Reserve Notes.3. Protect yourself from the status quo by hiring an additional thousand FBI agents to comb through records and prosecute financial fraud from 2003 to the present.4. Have the Treasury exchange a new, debt-free, currency similar to the Lincoln Greenbacks or the Kennedy Silver Certificates with the old Federal Reserve Notes. This new fiat currency would be issued directly by the Federal government and operate in a similar fashion as the old Federal Reserve private-debt currency.5. Nationalize the insolvent mega-banks using their infrastructure to establish public (transparent) top-tier banking thereby establishing confidence in the new currency, as well as to issuing new credit via existing loan and credit card vehicles.6. The nationalized Fed and Primary Dealer banks would now act as public-private partners, much like the bank of North Dakota has worked with private banks for the last 90 years.7. Declare all public banking actions open and transparent (this is the key element). Now Congress is directly responsible, in a very public way, for its fiduciary responsibilities.Now let’s take a break. Play some golf/basketball. Watch the real economy start to recover in six months.

economicminorOctober 30th, 2010 at 11:25 am

I like #3 a lot. Except in reality only the peons would go to jail while those who really benefited would get to keep their ill gotten gains.. At least that is how things have worked out so far in our history.I like #5, 6 & 7 too! One thing we really need to have a free nation is transparency. I don’t really agree with the second part of #5. Bailing out or propping up the credit card debt holders just solidifies their gains in while the majority of us take a huge hit due to rising costs. Sort of like the new health care bill that props up the insurers at the expense of the general public.Wouldn’t #1, #2 & #4 destroy private savings by flooding the system with newly created cash? Wouldn’t this just lock in the profits by the speculators at the expense of the savers? The TBTF who were able to borrow at near 0% would now have free cash with no obligation to repay?Besides, what’s the difference between 0% interest and trading existing T notes for cash… except to force all this cash to run around looking for something to buy… thus starting a hyper-inflationary scenario.Also in this scenario, what happens to the private debt which is the basis for insolvency at the consumer level? Isn’t this one of the real underlying problems with our economy? Along with underfunded pension funds and …….. > long list.There is nothing to do that is really fair as far as I can determine. I just don’t think it is right to further punish the savers for the benefit of the speculators. What ever is done should again make savings secure or we will soon find ourselves right back into the boiling water.

Modern Money MechanicsOctober 30th, 2010 at 3:08 pm

Wouldn’t #1, #2 & #4 destroy private savings by flooding the system with newly created cash?

Economicminor,#1 removes interest payments (~23% of current tax receipts) and inoculates the government from rising interest rates. The ~$144 trillion in bonds, bills, and notes are a new form of cash, no more or no less than what was before, to be invested in non-government enterprises (since the government issues its own money, it does not borrow money). But the government can assist in directing the former bond capital into productive private ventures much like Wall Street used to do. #2 & #4 are also a one for one exchange. No additional cash is injected into the system.

Wouldn’t this just lock in the profits by the speculators at the expense of the savers?

The savers have lost ground, but this would stop that loss and allow interest rates to rise significantly, without hurting the government, and encourage savings again.

The TBTF who were able to borrow at near 0% would now have free cash with no obligation to repay?

Everyone is still responsible for their financial obligations. As part of the status quo, the TBTFs may initially benefit, but their enterprises are insolvent. The TBTFs would be flushed out of the industry and prosecuted for many types of fraud.

Besides, what’s the difference between 0% interest and trading existing T notes for cash…

The problem has always been insolvency. The 0% interest for government and insiders (primary dealers) has created a liquidity trap. Transmuting T’s into cash is a debt jubilee for the government. Now there is the possibility of using ~23% of revenue for unfunded mandates, but that is old style thinking. Since the government now prints its own debt-free money, it can choose to fund whatever it wants at what ever level it wants.

…except to force all this cash to run around looking for something to buy…

With 20 million unemployed, there is plenty to invest in. We need to restart manufacturing in the USA. We have deep infrastructure problems. There is a oil crunch coming, we need to expand the electrical grid, develop alternative transportation, develop ways to harvest the vast methane hydrate reservoirs, etc.

…thus starting a hyper-inflationary scenario.

We know from history hyperinflation results from a loss of confidence a country’s currency. As the currency rapidly devalues, people run from savings to tangibles to preserve wealth. With the 25% upswing in gold prices, we believe the process is beginning in the USA.But experience with the 1750-1760s Continental Script (before the British counterfeiting), the Bailiwick of Guernsey, Brazil, et. al. demonstrated how government issued money does not lead to significant inflation.

Also in this scenario, what happens to the private debt which is the basis for insolvency at the consumer level? Isn’t this one of the real underlying problems with our economy? Along with underfunded pension funds and …….. > long list.

Non-fraudulent private debt remains. The underlying problem is no jobs as opposed to no money, but now with government issued money there are more jobs than people. Anyone who wants to work can work and joe6pack can pay back his debts. Sounds too simple does it not? Well, throughout the history of civilization from Babylonia, to Egypt, pre-Caesar Rome, early middle ages, through to today, government issued money has always led to stable economic times.What continues to amaze me about this whole economic mess is that it is simply a problem of how we view ourselves! Why, as a society, do we allowed a few people the privilege of creating money in secrecy? Why do we let them determine among themselves, again in secret, whether there will be more or less credit and thereby creating abundance or scarcity? Or do we ask the government to create money in a public and transparent fashion so that we all can judge its fairness?So, yes Mr. President, we can solve these seemingly intractable problems simply by changing our attitude about how money is created.

economicminorOctober 31st, 2010 at 12:33 pm

I have to disagree with some of your basic underlying assumptions.Private consumption makes up 70%, m/l, of the US economy. You don’t get real structural job growth while the private sector is deleveraging. People are still losing their homes due to a Ponzi scheme of finance perpetrated on them by both the government, the Federal Reserve and Wall Street. The resolution of this is the lowering of house values back to more realistic economic levels. This deleveraging includes a reduction of consumption. After all a home is a tool which has value as utility, not a rare work of art (no matter what people thought at the time of purchase). This Ponzi finance also allowed massively excessive over consumption which created overcapacity in manufacturing and service jobs.How is your currency proposal going to contain this damage?The jobs you seem to think come from Wall Street really come from Main Street. Main Street is the underlying basis for the US economy. Main Street is over leveraged from getting caught up in Wall Street’s Ponzi financing scheme. How does giving WS a ton more cash when they currently can’t find borrowers for what they have eludes me. Or giving tons of cash to the federal government who very seldom ever creates anything of value? With the current structure it sounds like a receipt for cronyism and nepotism and lots of no bid contracts to the insiders who have helped strip the US of its validity.As for your proposition about creating a new currency to replace the old currency and wiping out the US government debt. Well, it sounds good on the surface but part of the reason that the US$ is the reserve currency of the world is that there is faith in this not happening. There are trillions of US$ held in reserve for trade all over the world. All the contracts are written in US$ language. This would cause chaos in world trade and the US can not afford such chaos as we import something like 60% of our crude oil and as you probably know our clothes and shoes and rare minerals and …… you can say we can produce our own but that takes time and if under current profit structures, laws and regulations it was profitable to do, then we wouldn’t have shipped so many jobs over seas in the first place.The problems the US have are much bigger than just currency and federal government debt. They are structural. Fraudulent Enron type accounting is rampant in business and in insurance and pension accounting. Plus if you ran a company like the US runs their books, you’d be bankrupted by your creditors. There is way to much of the profits are taken out by the system by overleverage and over paid executives.Our education has suffered because of the transfer of capital upward to make the elite more powerful and less money available on Main Street to fund it. Poor quality education makes us less able to invent the new products and solutions. It is no wonder that Main Street wants lower taxes but the biggest tax they pay is the accumulation of interest.A dysfunctional political system rampant with lobbyists and rules that prevent not only change but rational responses to real crisis. This has led to the real underlying structural problem and that is income inequity. When workers can not afford to live the American Dream they helped build because people with influence and connections slowly drained away the majority of the assets. Americans survive by borrowing at a cost from the elite while the elite never are accountable for what their actions.Also, you say that hyper inflation is a loss in confidence. But as I understand inflation it is the increase in the money supply. More dollars chasing fewer goods and services equals out with higher prices. Your history lessons don’t seem to include Wiemar Germany or Zimbabwe.I won’t argue against getting rid of the FED and having the government issuing the money but there were periods when Rome clipped the coins to create more from less. It is human nature.So in conclusion, I see no really fair solutions yet we need to find some that at least fix our underlying problems. Otherwise, noting is fixed and we continue to decline. Maybe just printing enough cash to send $100,000 to every man woman and child that are current citizens. Some would pay down their debts, others would invest and others would just spend it.. At least that would treat all savers and debtors the same..What do you think?

Modern Money MechanicsOctober 30th, 2010 at 9:08 pm

Not to kick a dead horse, but Ellen Brown just released an article discussing the same theme as above.Citizens Against Government Waste (CAGW) unveiled a national ad addressing our country’s spending addiction, the dangers of relentless deficits, and the corrosive nature of our national debt ( advertisement is set in a lecture hall in China in the year 2030 and shows a Chinese professor lecturing on the fall of empires: Greece, Rome, Great Britain, the United States… “They all make the same mistakes,” he says. “Turning their backs on the principles that made them great. America tried to spend and tax itself out of a great recession. Enormous so-called stimulus spending, massive changes to health care, government takeover of private industries, and crushing debt.”But the problem with this analysis is that unlike the West, the Chinese government prints its own money, owns its own banks, and issues the loans to the people. As businesses fail and loans go unpaid, the government buys back the toxics bonds from the bankers creating a debt jubilee. Since there is no private banker, the unpaid debt is a loss to society at large. Given the amount of forgiven debt the West knows about, if one were to use Western GAAP, China’s GDP to real debt ratio would be 100% or more rather than the claimed 23%.Even though the Chinese banking system has been partially privatized, the government is still the controlling shareholder of the big four commercial banks. So, while Western governments suffer from an unrelenting credit crunch, China’s banks continue on a lending binge in response to the government’s economic stimulus policy promoting infrastructure and internal development.What is the moral of the story? Chinese banks work for the people rather than making the people work for the banks.As described above, we need to cancel the private Wall Street dollars and issue Greenback dollars to Main Street. We can do that by tying up Wall Street in criminal prosecution, nationalizing mega-banks, and returning control over money and credit to the people.The Citizens Against Government Waste (CAGW) national ad has irony at several levels, but the most striking irony is that the ad is true. China will overtake America simply because of its banking system structure.Ellen Brown’s article…

MorbidNovember 1st, 2010 at 2:59 pm

…we risk more economic down turns and even the possible specter of societal collapse.Yes, that is your key contribution, with a little editing.The entire economic model is unsustainable. The Earth is about to puke humans off its face like so many fleas on a dog’s back.Show me what is SUSTAINABLE…Everything else is just so much wishful thinking that a social collapse is avoidable. It is not. It just needs a little more time to reach full maturity.Good Luck to all

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sierraNovember 5th, 2010 at 9:41 am

There is probably something in all the above comments…but, like one, without further “editorializing” there is/are no simple solutions. We have disattatched ourselves from economic reality…we have a quasi corrupt government; a banking system, facing reality, that is in default, because of changed rules mid-stream; a continuous loss of good paying middle class jobs (regardless what “official” figures say); (I agree)a deteriorating educational system that leaves so much in doubt for younger generations facing unknown societal quantities and so many wedded to a further corrupt major media; a debt burden for both private (citizen)and public that is a deepening abyss despite several years of being in this mess; and, that debt so much reflecting the incestuous relationship to the “consumer” society so many have embraced.The (private) FED must be abolished; at the least ALL business transacted must be transparent. Period.One of the biggest mistakes we have made is not to have taken that bank holiday, sorted out the banks, made them take their “castor oil” regardless of bondholders, investors, and the private small saver would have been made whole thru FDIC. That, my friends was so important.As events played out, the largest Wall Street firms received “Do Not Go To Jail” cards and the circus was on.There are no simple solutions for anyone. To reconstitute this economy it will take a virtual, “economic revolution.” It is no longer sufficient to leave our currency in the hands of a private institution such as the FED; “markets” must socialized. No, not “socialism” but “socialized markets”. The world is changing. We are still operating in an economic defensive posture. We will remain there because of past beliefs of eventually “privatizing profits” by, “socializing the cost”. Those socialized costs are now coming home to roost in a vicious way on main street.True, there is enough blame to go around.But, the corruption this time is right up front and the largest economic powers, ie, the major financial houses and banks have our government in their grasp and will not let go.I agree with another writer above; hire another 1,000 or so incorruptible (Untouchables) investigators to sift through this mess and somebody must go to jail. Period.There are no solutions without pain for everybody.I often have thought about the issuance of new currency…..but, as another writer reasoned well about the confidence of the dollar as a “reserve” currency. Even though there are many countries that are trying mightily to retreat from that position.There are many who rail against any government subsidies to the private sector, but, history should point out that the “bank of last resort” is the government.A holiday for the banks; a holiday for homeowners descending into default because of continuing loss of jobs; a commitment to sound, open, transparency in banking operations; a transparent investigation into the outright frauds committed with resulting jail time for those involved like in the Savings and Loan mess, and more; you get the picture.Without incorruptible politicians we will not get any of this. None.So far our only solution is what homeowners were enticed to do, borrow more money, make deepening mortgages on their best possession and “hope for the best.”That is not a solution.That is a continuing recipe for more and deepening crisis and eventual total default for our currency (and our country).We need individuals with more vision, insight, courage and integrity.

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