Roubini on CNBC’s Squawk Box – U.S. Economic Outlook and European Stress Tests
CNBC — What to expect for the second half of the year, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.
CNBC — Why the European stress tests were not stressful enough, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman.
CNBC — Roubini: EU Stress Tests Criteria Not Realistic
The pan-European stress tests on the banking sector were not tough enough to reflect future worsening conditions for the continent’s economy, Nouriel Roubini, economist and chairman of Roubini Global Economics, told CNBC Monday.
European stress tests assumed a rise of 6 percent in unemployment, economic contraction of 3 percent on average and a 6 percent hike in market interest rates. Many analysts said the conditions were harsher than what they had anticipated.
“The assumptions made about economic growth, about sovereign risk are not realistic enough,” said. Roubini, who was dubbed by the media “Dr. Doom” but prefers to be called “Dr. Realist.”
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4 Responses to “Roubini on CNBC’s Squawk Box – U.S. Economic Outlook and European Stress Tests”
Professor, the male host was rude and ignorant, I recommend you Not go on the show again if they are going to ask you a question and then interrupt and talk aver your answers with selective recall supporting their political disposition while ignoring items such as the wealth transfer resulting from Bush administration giving tax cuts to the wealthy while not paying for Medicare part D.The fact that the deficits need to be paid down with both revenue increases and cuts in spending seems to not penetrate certain minds. Please stick with Bloomberg for your rational discussions.
Maybe, when they continue to invite a Dr realist, some minds will be penetrated with some sense of reality after all. I hope. The longer this process is delayed, the stronger the tailwinds become (problems are not solved but aggravated).
David Stockman, a director of the Office of Management and Budget under President Ronald Reagan, is working on a book about the financial crisis.”The second unhappy change in the American economy has been the extraordinary growth of our public debt. In 1970 it was just 40 percent of gross domestic product, or about $425 billion. When it reaches $18 trillion, it will be 40 times greater than in 1970. This debt explosion has resulted not from big spending by the Democrats, but instead the Republican Party’s embrace, about three decades ago, of the insidious doctrine that deficits don’t matter if they result from tax cuts.”http://www.nytimes.com/2010/08/01/opinion/01stockman.html
72 Analysts Believe Gold Will go to $2,500 to $15,000!This may sound like good news to gold bugs, but it’s really bad news forthe rest of us. The value of gold has been constant for thousands of years.http://www.amazon.com/Golden-Constant-American-Experience-1560-2007/dp/1847202616/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1280151725&sr=8-1What this really means is that the relatively high value of the dollarhas been jury-rigged through its historical significance and politicalmanipulation.Today’s drama in the silver and gold markets tell us that “pressure” isbuilding as people lose confidence in the dollar. But since the value ofthe dollar relies on confidence, a negative feed-back loop is developing.=====================COMEX & LBMA aka “the spot market” trade in paper gold. The price ofgold is actively suppressed through trading in a fractional reservebullion banking where paper shares are traded as if they were physical gold.The paper gold market is selling, on average, 45 ounces of gold forevery one ounce of real physical gold via an “unallocated” gold pool(fractional reserve bullion banking). In other words, the paper goldmarket is backed by just 2.3% of physical gold.Assuming a conservative linear demand slope, that makes the true priceof physical gold around $54,000/oz if fractional reserve bullion bankingdid not exist.In the presence of 2.3% fractional gold backing and international bankprice intervention, the market price of “gold” is suppressed to $1200/oz.The US dollar appears to have 45 times over-valued purchasing power.Gold price suppression will end as more and more “investors” haveallocated physical bullion preferably held outside of the bullionbanking system.http://www.zerohedge.com/article/lbma-closes-public-access-key-bullion-bank-trading-data========================Bullion buyers bank on gold coinsPrecious metal glitters for investors seeking to hedge financial chaoshttp://www.marketwatch.com/story/bullion-buyers-bank-on-gold-coins-2010-07-23========================72 Analysts Believe Gold Will Increase Between $2,500 and $15,000!44 out of the 72 believe that $5,000 or more for gold is likely. Iencourage you to check out their articles and their rationale for suchhigh gold prices in the years (and in some cases just months) to come.Higher than $10,0001. Mike Maloney: $15,000;http://goldbasics.blogspot.com/2009/09/gold-should-reach-15000-oz-mike-maloney.htmlhttp://goldsilver.com/news/newsID/8538/tPath/2/2. Howard Katz: $14,000;http://www.24hgold.com/english/contributor.aspx?contributor=Howard+S.+Katz&article=2241359014G10020&redirect=False3. Silver-Coin-Investor.com: $7,000-$14,000;http://www.silver-coin-investor.com/gold-and-silver.html4. Jim Rickards: $4,000 – $11,000;http://www.cnbc.com/id/34038650/Gold_s_Money_Value_is_4_000_to_11_000_Market_Strategist5. Roland Watson: $10,800 (in our lifetime);http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05watson081605.html$5,001 – $10,0001. Bob Kirtley: $10,000 (by 2011);http://www.goldeditor.com/wp-content/uploads/editorpdfsimages/Gold-Prices-at-10-000.pdf2. Arnold Bock: $10,000 (by 2012);http://www.munknee.com/2010/06/gold-going-to-parabolic-top-of-10000-by-2012-%e2%80%93-for-good-reasons/3. Porter Stansberry: $10,000 (by 2012);http://www.kitco.com/ind/stansberry/dec022009.html4. Tom Fischer: $10,000;http://gold.approximity.com/gold_price_models_sinclair.html5. Shayne McGuire: $10,000;http://www.safehaven.com/article/9572/shayne-mcguire-the-early-innings-of-a-gold-boom6. Eric Hommelberg: $10,000;http://www.gold-speculator.com/eric-hommelberg/17257-golds-inflation-adjusted-high-reaches-8000-a.html7. Gerald Celente: $6,000 – $10,000;http://www.trendsresearch.com/forecast.html8. Peter Schiff: $5,000 – $10,000 (in 5 to 10 years);http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_23/b4181044623002.htmhttp://www.commodityonline.com/news/Gold-forecast-Jim-Rogers-Peter-Schiff-or-Roubini-23940-3-1.html9. Egon von Greyerz: $5,000 – $10,000;http://www.munknee.com/2010/06/why-many-analysts-see-gold-going-as-high-as-10000/10. Patrick Kerr: $5,000 – $10,000 (by 2011);http://www.marketwatch.com/story//a-reality-check-for-investors-mulling-sale-of-gold-2009-11-2011. Peter Millar: $5,000 – $10,000;http://www.gata.org/files/PeterMillarGoldNoteMay06.pdf12. Alf Field: $4,250 – $10,000;http://www.24hgold.com/english/news-gold-silver-gold-price-objective.aspx?contributor=Alf+Field&article=1440499960G10020&redirect=Falsehttp://www.gold-speculator.com/alf-field/7413-elliot-wave-gold-update-23-a.htmlhttp://jsmineset.com/2009/05/10/alf-field%E2%80%99s-gold-price-predictions/13. Peter George: $3,500 (by 2011-13); $10,000 (by 2015);http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1129126809.php14. Jeff Nielson: $3,000 – $10,000;http://www.bullionbullscanada.com/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=12906:the-real-truth-about-the-imfs-gold-sale&catid=48:gold-commentary&Itemid=13115. Dennis van Ek: $9,000 (by 2015);http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/Goldbug/gold_price/goldprices_could_hit_9000_per_oz_by_2015_1889803416. James Turk: $8,000 (by 2015);http://www.munknee.com/2010/06/where-gold-and-silver-will-be-by-2015/17. Joseph Russo: $7,000 – $8,000;http://www.financialsense.com/fsu/editorials/russo/2007/0416.html18. David Petch; $6,000 – $$8,000;http://www.gold-eagle.com/editorials_05/petch040105.html19. Michael Rozeff: $2,865 – $7,151;http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article14168.htmlhttp://www.lewrockwell.com/rozeff/rozeff16.html20. Martin Murenbeeld: $3,100 – $7,000;http://www.dundeeprecious.com/Theme/Dundee/files/The%20Gold%20Price%20Outlook%20through%202010-%20website.pdf21. Dylan Grice: $6,300;http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/63123/Barry_Dawes_Projects_Gold_To_Reach_5000oz_At_The_Resources_Investment_Expo_In_Brisbane.htm22. Aubie Baltin: $6,000 (by 2017);http://www.24hgold.com/english/contributor.aspx?rss=true&article=2158395926G10020&redirect=false&contributor=Aubie+Baltin23. Murray Sabrin: $6,153;http://www.kitco.com/ind/Sabrin/may262009.html24. Harry Schultz: $6,000;http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/harry-shultz-deflation-hyperinflation/2010/06/11/id/361725?s=al&promo_code=A0D6-125. Paul van Edeen: $6,000;http://paulvaneeden/Dr.murenbeelds.gold.price.forecast.for.the.coming.year26. Lawrence Hunt: $5,000 – $6,000 (by 2019);http://laurencehunt.blogspot.com/2010/06/gold-invisible-bull-market.html27. Paul Brodsky/Lee Quaintance: $3,000 – $6,000;http://www.gold-eage.com/editorials_08/brodsky121208pv.htmlhttp://gata.org/files/QBAssetManagement-07-2009.pdf$5,0001. David Rosenberg: $5,000;http://www.zerohedge.com/article/rosenberg-pattern-would-suggest-test-5000-dow-same-time-gold-5000-toohttp://www.investmentpostcards.com/2010/05/16/3000-gold-price-may-yet-prove-conservative-says-rosie/2. Martin Hutchinson: $5,000 (by end of 2010);http://www.prudentbear.com/index.php/thebearslairview?art_id=10309http://www.nytimes.com/2010/05/14/business/economy/14views.html3. Doug Casey: $5,000;http://pragcap.com/is-gold-going-to-50004. Peter Cooper: $5,000;http://www.arabianmoney.net/gold-silver/2010/05/12/5000-an-ounce-in-sight-as-gold-its-new-all-time-high/5. Robert McEwen: $5,000;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601082&sid=ajm6lryLYViQ6. Martin Armstrong: $5,000 (by 2016);http://www.businessinsider.com/martin-armstrong-gold-headed-to-5000-and-beyond-2009-167. Peter Krauth: $5,000;http://moneymorning.com/2010/01/14/gold-superspike8. Tim Iacono: $5,000 (by 2017);http://seekingalpha.com/article/174088-faber-gold-a-better-buy-than-at-300-oz?source=hp9. Christopher Wyke: $5,000;http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aF1439PVhAgk10. Frank Barbera: $5,000;http://www.theaureport.com/pub/na/157511. John Lee: $5,000;http://goldnews.bullionvault.com/gold_dollar_fiat_currency_fed_confidence_03032008212. Barry Dawes: $5,000;http://www.abnnewswire.net/press/en/63123/Barry_Dawes_Projects_Gold_To_Reach_5000oz_At_The_Resources_Investment_Expo_In_Brisbane.html$2,500 – $5,0001. Pierre Lassonde: $4,000 – $5,000;http://www.commodityonline.com/news/Panic-effect-could-push-Gold-to-$4000-or-$5000-11770-3-1.html2. Mary Anne and Pamela Aden: $3,000 – $5,000 (by February 2012);http://www.adenforecast.com/articlesInterviewDetail.php?id_publicacion=193. Bob Chapman: $3,000 (by 2011);http://bobchapman.blogspot.com/2010/05/gold-will-go-to-75-and-gold-to-3000.html4. Larry Edelson: $2300 – $5,000 (by 2012);http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/two-mandatory-investments-9648?FIELD9=15. Luke Burgess: $2,000- – $5,000;http://www.wealthdaily.com/articles/gold-etfs/24096. Ian Gordon/Christopher Funston; $4,000;http://www.munknee.com/2010/06/the-long-wave-cycle-of-winter-is-coming/7. D.P. Baker: $3,000 – $3750;http://www.stockhouse.com/Columnists/2010/Jun/8/Gold-s-next-move-could-be-parabolichttp://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1272548046.php8. Christopher Wood: $3,500 (in 2010);http://www.bi-me.com/main.php?id=32459&t=1&c=62&cg=4&mset=10119. Adam Hamilton: $3,500 (by 2010-11);http://www.commodityonline.com/futures-trading/technical/Gold-price-to-hit-$3500-by-201011-13620.html10. Eric Roseman: $2,500 – $3,500 (by 2015);http://worldcurrencywatch.com/2010/04/08/the-still-unpaid-price-of-the-global-bailout/11. John Henderson: $3,000+ (by 2015-17);http://seekingalpha.com/article/160592-gold-1200-by-year-end-1500-in-2010-3000-by-2015-201712. Hans Goetti: $3,000;http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232/?video=1043867279&play=113. Michael Yorba: $3,000;http://yorbatv.ning.com/forum/topic/show?id=2014856%3ATopic%3A969814. David Tice: $3,000 (by 2012);http://www.cnbc.com/id/3424048915. David Urban; $3,000;http://seekingalpha.com/article/36315-why-i-believe-gold-will-hit-3000-oz16. Michael Lambert: $3,000;http://mitchell-langbert.blogspot.com/2010/06/is-ride-to-3000-gold-going-to-hit-air.html17. Brett Arends: $3,000;http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704792104575264863069565780.html18. Ambrose Evans-Pritchard: $3,000;http://www.moneynews.com/StreetTalk/evans-pritchard-gold-price/2010/05/26/id/36017519. Trader Mark: $3,000 (by mid-2011);http://www.ibtimes.com/articles/25200/20100526/if-gold-gld-tracks-nasdaq-housing-peaks-its-headed-to-3000-in-18-months.htm20. John Williams: $3,000;http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/4967209/Gold-Inflation-will-beat-deflation-and-gold-will-hit-3000.html21. Byron King: $3,000;http://whiskeyandgunpowder.com/gold-is-going-to-3000-get-some-physical-gold/22. ThumbCharts.com: $3,000;http://www.thumbcharts.com/1300/gold-at-3000-only-if-bubbles-repeat23. Ian McAvity: $2,500 – $3,000 (by 2012);http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=106419&sn=Detail&pid=10205524. Jeff Nichols: $2,000 – $3,000;http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page34?oid=99961&sn=Detail&pid=125. Graham French: $2,000 – $3,000;http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/investing/gold/7743787/Gold-bulls-claim-price-could-double-to-3000-in-five-years.html26. Sascha Opel: $2,500+;http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=79363&sn=Detail27. Rick Rule: $2,500 (by 2013);http://www.mineweb.com/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=107168&sn=Detail&pid=10228. Daniel Brebner: $2,500;http://www.midasletter.com/news/09031105_UBS-bullish-on-gold-price-nearing-2500-dollars.phpConclusionThere you have it. Who would have believed that so many distinguishedanalysts would maintain that gold and by implication, silver, (see myarticlehttp://www.munknee.com/2010/07/silver%e2%80%99s-historical-correlation-with-gold-suggests-a-parabolic-top-as-high-as-714-per-ounce/for details) are likely to achieve such lofty levels as a result of theeffects of our current financially troubled and volatile times? Theirrationale is varied but each is sound in its own right. I haveidentified 72 analysts with such views and look forward to yourassistance in adding to that number.If we are to put any credence whatsoever into the rationale presented bythe above analysts then it seems prudent for us to own some physicalgold and silver in order to shield ourselves from future rampantinflation and currency devaluations and to ensure an outstanding returnon our investment. Yes, indeed, “Got Gold?http://news.goldseek.com/GoldSeek/1279566456.php