The global economy, artificially boosted since the recession of 2008-2009 by massive monetary and fiscal stimulus and financial bailouts, is headed towards a sharp slowdown this year as the effect of these measures wanes. Worse yet, the fundamental excesses that fueled the crisis – too much debt and leverage in the private sector (households, banks and other financial institutions, and even much of the corporate sector) – have not been addressed. Private-sector deleveraging has barely begun. Moreover, there is now massive re-leveraging of the public sector in advanced economies, with huge budget deficits and public-debt accumulation driven by automatic stabilizers, counter-cyclical Keynesian fiscal stimulus, and the immense costs of socializing the financial system’s losses.
At best, we face a protracted period of anemic, below-trend growth in advanced economies as deleveraging by households, financial institutions, and governments starts to feed through to consumption and investment. At the global level, the countries that spent too much – the United States, the United Kingdom, Spain, Greece, and elsewhere – now need to deleverage and are spending, consuming, and importing less.
But countries that saved too much – China, emerging Asia, Germany, and Japan – are not spending more to compensate for the fall in spending by deleveraging countries. Thus, the recovery of global aggregate demand will be weak, pushing global growth much lower.
The global slowdown – already evident in second-quarter data for 2010 – will accelerate in the second half of the year. Fiscal stimulus will disappear as austerity programs take hold in most countries. Inventory adjustments, which boosted growth for a few quarters, will run their course. The effects of tax policies that stole demand from the future – such as incentives for buyers of cars and homes – will diminish as programs expire. Labor-market conditions remain weak, with little job creation and a spreading sense of malaise among consumers.
The likely scenario for advanced economies is a mediocre U-shaped recovery, even if we avoid a W-shaped double dip. In the US, annual growth was already below trend in the first half of 2010 (2.7% in the first quarter and estimated at a mediocre 2.2% in April-June). Growth is set to slow further, to 1.5% in the second half of this year and into 2011.
Whatever letter of the alphabet US economic performance ultimately resembles, what is coming will feel like a recession. Mediocre job creation and a further rise in unemployment, larger cyclical budget deficits, a fresh fall in home prices, larger losses by banks on mortgages, consumer credit, and other loans, and the risk that Congress will adopt protectionist measures against China will see to that.
In the eurozone, the outlook is worse. Growth may be close to zero by the end of this year, as fiscal austerity kicks in and stock markets fall. Sharp rises in sovereign, corporate, and interbank liquidity spreads will increase the cost of capital, and increases in risk aversion, volatility, and sovereign risk will undermine business, investor, and consumer confidence further. The weakening of the euro will help Europe’s external balance, but the benefits will be more than offset by the damage to export and growth prospects in the US, China, and emerging Asia.
Even China is showing signs of a slowdown, owing to the government’s attempts to control economic overheating. The slowdown in advanced economies, together with a weaker euro, will further dent Chinese growth, bringing its 11%-plus growth rate towards 7% by the end of this year. This is bad news for export growth in the rest of Asia and among commodity–rich countries, which increasingly rely on Chinese imports.
An important victim will be Japan, where anemic real income growth is depressing domestic demand and exports to China sustain what little growth there is. Japan also suffers from low potential growth, owing to a lack of structural reforms and weak and ineffective governments (four prime ministers in four years), a large stock of public debt, unfavorable demographic trends, and a strong yen that gets stronger during bouts of global risk aversion.
A scenario in which US growth slumps to 1.5%, the eurozone and Japan stagnate, and China’s growth slows below 8% may not imply a global contraction, but, as in the US, it will feel like one. And any additional shock could tip this unstable global economy back into full-fledged recession.
The potential sources of such a shock are legion. The eurozone’s sovereign-risk problems could worsen, leading to another round of asset-price corrections, global risk aversion, volatility, and financial contagion. A vicious cycle of asset-price correction and weaker growth, together with downside surprises that are not currently priced by markets, could lead to further asset-price declines and even weaker growth – a dynamic that drove the global economy into recession in the first place.
And one cannot exclude the possibility of an Israeli military strike on Iran in the next 12 months. If that happens, oil prices could rapidly spike and, as in the summer of 2008, trigger a global recession.
Finally, policymakers are running out of tools. Additional monetary quantitative easing will make little difference, there is little room for further fiscal stimulus in most advanced economies, and the ability to bail out financial institutions that are too big to fail – but also too big to be saved – will be sharply constrained.
So, as the optimists’ delusional hopes for a rapid V-shaped recovery evaporate, the advanced world will be at best in a long U-shaped recovery, which in some cases – the eurozone and Japan – may be long enough to stretch into an L-shaped near-depression. Avoiding a double dip recession will be difficult.
In such a world, recovery in the stronger emerging markets – the great hope for the global economy – will suffer, because no country is an island economically. Indeed, growth in many emerging-market economies – starting with China – is highly dependent on retrenching advanced economies.
Fasten your seat belts for a very bumpy ride.
This article is from Project Syndicate.
All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC
138 Responses to “Double-Dip Days”
Dear Prof,Thank you for advising, I like the words, “fasten your seat belts for a very bumpy ride”, it sounds like very hard journey ahead, but we will get through.Prof, I think many people never used a seat belt before, can you teach?
As far as I can see the VISION is broke. Where there is no sustainable vision, the people perish. The visionless criminal elite media, politicians, banksters, corporations, warmongers, etc. have put this country (USA), this world (because we have spread our errors), on a course that is totally unsustainable. We are raping the planet in order to sustain the “growth forever” Ponzi scheme economic model, birth model of adding more consumers…My rant. It could be a lot longer. What does a different sustainable vision of the future look like? Probably a world population of about 500 million who live in harmony with Nature as their brother/sister and not something to be exploited for profit. Thank God I don’t have that many more years left to live on this battlefield we call Earth but our children do and from what I can see they face a horrible future that will unfold in the next decade.
Professor,Morbid has his points that are worth considering.Professor Steve Keen has a new video out. It is worth watching. http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/2010/07/14/new-york-debtwatch-talk-modelling-debt-deflation/Also, if you have not yet looked at the video series that Chris Martenson produced, you really should watch that too. http://www.chrismartenson.com/crashcourseKeen and Martenson in different ways show mathematically how unsustainable exponential growth is. Both show that a return to what was normal is now impossible. Martenson’s series, thru many graphs and charts show the resource restrictions on even sustaining our current lifestyles and standards of living.You should really spend the time to watch each. They will change your perspective. Unless you disbelieve their research which is derived from the same sources you use.The world has crossed the top of the bell curve in many interdependent systems and we are quickly heading for the down side of the curve.Denial will not reverse this nor will it protect you.Best RegardsAnd again thank you for sharing.
once in power, you wouldn’t want to let go..people deep asleep in scenic Utopian dreams, wouldn’t want to wake up…that’s why we called it a “crash” … sudden jolt of shock…disbelief…anger…
Morbid on 2010-07-19 09:19:12Thank God I don’t have that many more years left to live on this battlefield we call Earth but our children do and from what I can see they face a horrible future that will unfold in the next decade.
Here is a glimse of a potential “horrible future” as used in the plot of the novel One Second After by William Forstchen.The novel opens with a terrorist nuclear device launched from a container ship and exploded 100 miles above Nebraska. The resulting radiation ionises the atmosphere, generating a massive Electro-Magnetic Pulse which silently disables every vehicle built since 1980, zaps every electronic device connected to the grid, and wipes out all communication.This premise sets the stage for a series of “die-offs.” The first takes place within a week (those in hospitals and assisted living). After about 15 days, salmonella induced Typhoid fever and Cholera set in from eating tainted food, drinking tainted water, and generally poor sanitation. Americans have lived in an environment of vaccinations, sterilization, and antibiotics making them prime targets for third-world diseases. The lack of bathing and poor diet will lead to rampant feminine hygiene infections while the “douche bag” will take on its former definition and utilitarian function. Of course deep cuts, rusty nail punctures, and dog bites will go untreated with antibiotics, tetanus shots, or rabies treatment as more die from common infections.Critical medial supply and food thieves and others will be executed in public as enforcement of marshal law. In 30 days the cardiac and other drug-dependent patients die-off. In 60 or so days, the pacemaker and Type I diabetics begin to die-off. Next, come the cold-turkey withdrawal for hard-core alcoholics and consumers of other addictive compounds such as Oxcodine, Prozac, and Xanax. The 5% of population having severe psychotic disorders that no longer have medication will re-create Bedlam. Jerry-built wood-burning stoves lead to carbon monoxide deaths and fires that cannot be controlled for the lack of a fire department.Then emigrants show up looking for food and shelter and the fight over scarce resources leads to confrontation, home invasion, and more violence-related die-offs. If you live in an organizied social arrangement, then your community becomes an inviting target for free prisoners and organized gangs and more violence-related die-off. Ration cards will be issued to conserve the little food left; regardless, the community slowly starves with the elderly the first to die-off. Next parents starve themselves to save their children. Throughout this period suicides are common. After a year, approximately 20% of the initial population has “survived.”
Oh, this was the “average” die-off. Food-rich Iowa had about a 50% die-off while Florida had a 95% die-off from its elderly population, lack of air conditioning, rampant transmission of disease, fighting among the large population, and natural disasters such as hurricanes.
And I thought I was MORBID!
Does Extend and Pretend have its limits?What will force lenders to market ALL their housing inventories (shadow)? Most everyone in blogosphere keeps saying homes will hit the market soon. What will prevent lenders from holding homes off the market for say, 5 years, or whenever they feel it won’t have a negative impact on their performing loans? Accounting rules have been changed to help banks hide loses, but do you know when they must foreclose on ALL those not paying and actually sell the houses?Analyst Meredith Whitney thinks housing is in for a double dip but does not say why banks must sell. If banks only trickle out their inventory, where is the downward pressure.Meanwhile here in San Diego, many short sales listings are being cancelled because lenders don’t want to accept the highest and best offer.What are the limits to extend and pretend?http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/real-estate-housing-market-housing-bubble/7/20/2010/id/29230
I think Professor Roubini misses the main point about the US economy: political risk.It is bad enough to be in a crisis, but it is very possible that the electorate will decide to split power between an increasingly radicalized right that will not cooperate and the Democrats. The Democrats are being pushed to the left by their base (predictions are that the Blue Dogs will be the major losers of this election), angry that the Democrats have failed to deliver on sufficient public sector/infrastructure jobs. The likelihood for gridlock is high and rising.A lot of the financial people think that gridlock is good. When one is in a crisis, it is very bad to have two people fighting to control the steering wheel.I’m sure that Nouriel is aware of this, but it should be listed as an explicit factor.
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