Archive for June, 2010
CNBC: The Kudlow Report — Crisis Economics: Discussing whether the recession is headed for a double-dip, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics chairman. (Click for Video [6:48]) All rights reserved, Roubini GlobalEconomics, LLC
A longer and more detailed analysis of this proposal of mine for an orderly restructuring of Greece’s public debt is available to RGE clients: Order from Chaos From the Financial Times: It is time to recognise that Greece is not just suffering from a liquidity crisis; it is facing an insolvency crisis too. Rating agencies […]
From the NYT:
By Paul M. Barrett
In late March, the former Federal Reserve chairman Alan Greenspan told Al Hunt of Bloomberg Television that the financial crisis had been a “once in a century” shocker. “We all misjudged the risks involved,” Greenspan said. “Everybody missed it — academia, the Federal Reserve, all regulators.”
Well, not everyone. A number of prominent scholars warned long before the meltdown of 2008 that something awful was approaching. Greenspan and his successor, Ben Bernanke, chose to ignore the alarms.
Please read RGE’s view of the significance of China’s announcement of more currency flexibility in the following RGE STRATEGY VIEW (clients only): ‘Yuan Upmanship’: Interpreting China’s FX Regime Change.
PBS NEWSHOUR — Transcript
There is an ongoing debate among global policymakers about when and how fast to exit from the strong monetary and fiscal stimulus that prevented the Great Recession of 2008-2009 from turning into a new Great Depression. Germany and the European Central Bank are pushing aggressively for early fiscal austerity; the United States is worried about the risks of excessively early fiscal consolidation.In fact, policymakers are damned if they do and damned if they don’t. If they take away the monetary and fiscal stimulus too soon – when private demand remains shaky – there is a risk of falling back into recession and deflation. While fiscal austerity may be necessary in countries with large deficits and debt, raising taxes and cutting government spending may make the recession and deflation worse.
From Outlook Money:
By Rajesh Kumar
In September 2006, Nouriel Roubini, a professor of economics at New York University, speaking at the International Monetary Fund (IMF), warned that the US economy would suffer a once-in-a-lifetime housing bust and a deep recession. The warning was received by the audience with a fair amount of skepticism, as the US economy, though looking a little weak, was still growing, with low inflation and unemployment. But, as events unfolded afterwards, the prediction by Dr. Doom, as Roubini is famously—or infamously— known, started coming true.
Interestingly, though the recent economic crisis has been termed as once-in-a lifetime, or diffi cult to predict, Roubini was not the only whistle-blower. Economists like Robert J. Shiller of Yale University and Raghuram Rajan of the University of Chicago also highlighted different areas of trouble, but, perhaps, only Roubini anticipated the extent of the damage. In the same IMF address he concluded that the financial system could face a systemic risk, and it did. In the words of Nassim Nicholas Taleb, the author of Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness, Roubini was the only professional economist who really predicted the crisis of 2008.
Roubini and El-Erian on CNBC’s Squawk Box: Double Dip Risk, Growth vs. Fiscal Consolidation, Future of the Eurozone
CNBC.com — Double Dip Risk is Rising in the Eurozone
By David Warsh
Like many others, the New YorkUniversity professor was searching for a business model. His site had begun life nearly ten years before as a public service bulletin board posting everything that was being written about the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. As a monitor of what was being said, rather like Romenesko on the news industry or Johnson’s Russia List, he earned a devoted following among economists, investors, regulators and journalists. But it was hard work, and by 2005 he was eager to monetize his success.
by Michael Wolff
At the Festival Economia in Trento, Italy, yesterday, Nouriel Roubini, the New York-based globe-trotting economist, who has been a mighty and consistent voice of financial apocalypse, said that the only way Europe could save itself from certain catastrophe (which would, in turn, double dip the rest of the world) was to let the euro fall to below parity with the dollar. Roubini noted, not disapprovingly, the euro’s historic low of 82 cents—compared to its recent high of $1.50.