EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

RGE’s Weekly Roundup

Check out all of the RGE analysis and EconoMonitor contributions that were published this past week at roubini.com.

RGE Analysis: [Available only to RGE clients]

U.S. Growth Outlook: Still Anemic and U-Shaped but Risks of a Double-Dip Recession Are Rising by Nouriel Roubini

A slew of poor economic data over the past two weeks suggests that the U.S. economy in 2010 is headed for – at best – a U-shaped recovery. The macro news, including data on consumer confidence, home sales, construction and employment, actually suggests a significant downside risk even to the anemic 2.7% growth which RGE forecast for H1. With the positive effects of the historic levels of fiscal stimulus due to fade this year, the U.S. faces at best a 1.5% growth rate in H2, which looks too close for comfort to a tipping point of a double-dip recession.

 

A Year of Living Divergently: RGE’s 2010 Global Market Strategy Outlook by Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, and Jennifer Kapila

Global Macro & Markets:Expect diverging economic performance, rising volatility, and falling correlations.

 

Q4 U.S. GDP Growth: Going Beyond the Headlines by Christian Menegatti and Prajakta Bhide

Recent data revisions indicating stronger Q4 2009 growth in the U.S. economy are largely a reflection of inventory liquidation, a phenomenon that will provide a transient boost to growth. A better barometer of overall economic health is the level of real final sales, which were revised lower in the second estimate of Q4 GDP, pointing to possible downward risks to our U.S. growth forecasts for 2010.

 

LatAm: What’s Coming Up? (Week of March 1, 2010) by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado

The most relevant releases this week will be Brazil’s figures for February inflation, tracked by the IPCA, and January industrial production, along with the central bank’s Focus report. Markets will also closely follow Mexico’s February consumer and business sentiment figures, February inflation results for Colombia and Peru, Chile’s economic activity in January and Argentina’s February tax revenues.

 

LatAm: Never a Dull Moment by Bertrand Delgado and Juan Lorenzo Maldonado

Inflation and growth dynamics in Brazil continue to suggest that the central bank might implement a 50-basis-point hike to 9.25% in April; however, the possibility of an increase in interest rates in March cannot be discounted. Meanwhile, inflation expectations in Mexico and actual inflation in Peru in February suggest that neither country’s central bank is in a hurry to increase the monetary policy rate, though in the case of Peru, an increase in reserve requirements in the upcoming months cannot be ruled out.

 

On Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, as the debate of the shape of the recovery in the United States rages on, Nouriel Roubini analyzes the macro data and finds it to be fully consistent with – at best – a U-shaped recovery.  However, the last two weeks of poor economic data suggest that the probability of a W, a double-dip recession, is rising. The following RGE Analysis U.S. Growth Outlook: Still Anemic and U-Shaped but Risks of a Double-Dip Recession Are Rising is available only to RGE clients.

 

On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Adam Wolfe takes a look at The National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s legislature and nominally highest political body.  While the agenda and outcome of the NPC may be predetermined, the legislature is an opportunity for the government to lay out its plans to the population.  Please read What’s on the Agenda at China’s National People’s Congress.

In Canada’s Growth: Not Yet a Win? Rachel Ziemba considers Canada’s return to growth and raises a few warning signs ahead.

In RGE’s Wednesday Note – Will Silver Sparkle in 2010? Mikka Pineda examines the price drivers of silver, the least “precious” of the precious metals.

 

On the Finance & Markets Monitor, Simon Johnson examines the Dodd-Corker financial reform proposal in the Senate and points out that U.S. big banks are global and nothing in the legislation would really rein them in.  Please read Why No International Financial Regulation.

In Banksters Win Yet Again: Dodd Proposes Putting Consumer Protection Agency at the Fed, you can imagine Yves Smith’s reaction to the proposal of the Fed having the consumer watchdog role.

In Berkshire Hathaway Letter to Shareholders, Barry Ritholtz points out some of the gems in Warren Buffet’s letter to shareholders, and looks at the difficult but correct legal call the judge had to make in handling the Madoff losses in What Were the Actual Losses in Madoff’s Fraud?

 

On the Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, C. Fred Bergsten explains how best to boost U.S. exports, which would create many new jobs, by focusing on the exchange rate of the dollar, trade agreements, export controls, and tax policy.

 

On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, John Graham and Kate O’Sullivan present their results from their quarterly survey of CFO’s in the U.S., Europe and Japan and report that there is finally some good news, but of course there are caveats.  Don’t miss Economy Slowly Improving but Risks Posed by Weak Employment and Tight Credit Remain.

In The Greek Job, Satyajit Das points out that as the Greek debt crisis highlights, simple borrowing and lending can be readily disguised using derivatives exacerbating risks and reducing market transparency, and while none of this is new, it should be addressed by regulators.

In Yemen’s Push into the Gas Sector Fails to Stimulate Great Excitement and Raises Disturbing Questions, Fawzia Sheikh considers Yemen’s options as oil revenues plunge.

Also on the Global Macro EconoMonitor:

A Tale of Two Recoveries: Malaysia vs. Germany by Rebecca Wilder

M1 Growth in Charts: The Majors vs. the BIICs by Rebecca Wilder

Crude Oil Hits Ceiling in Week as Hedge Funds Attack Euro by Darrell Delamaide

 

On the U.S. EconoMonitor, as U.S. policy makers reach the limit of their perceived abilities, Tim Duy considers the inflation numbers.  Please read Is the Fed Eager to Dismiss Deflationary Pressures?

In Krugman: No Bill Is Better Than a Weak Bill, James Kwak discusses whether diluted financial reform is preferable to no bill at all.

In Ronald Reagan the Keynesian, Edward Harrison considers the notion that Reagan might have been conservative in word, but Keynesian in deed.

Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor:

The High Road Procurement Policy by Mark Thoma

Underwater Home-Owers: Demand Principle Reductions by Barry Ritholtz

The Enthusiasm Gap by Robert Reich

This Ain’t No Party by Walter Molano

Can Obama Turn America Into Something Like Zimbabwe? by Fabius Maximus

Worry Not About America Becoming Like Zimbabwe, Worry About Becoming Like Argentina by Fabius Maximus

 

On the Asia EconoMonitor, Michael Pettis considers the inevitable rebalancing that China will undergo and tries to learn from Japan how to make that rebalancing less painful.  Please read Stuck in Neutral – What Japan’s Rebalancing Can Teach Us.

 

On the Latin America EconoMonitor, Miguel A. Kiguel warns that inflation is on the rise again in Argentina and this time the risks are high.  Please see Some Reflection about the Inflation Process in Argentina.

 

On the Europe EconoMonitor, Ivo Arnold argues that the entanglement between European governments and their financial institutions is already much too strong as it is, and for the sake of financial stability, banks should be protected from attempts by governments to use bank funding when bond markets dry up.  Please read Keep Banks Out of Greek Aid Package.

In Ukraine: Swinging Away, Walter Molano notes that the inauguration of Viktor Yanukovich as President marks a swing back to Russia’s orbit for the Ukraine, but considering the tenuous situation of the country, it could prove to be an expensive trophy for Moscow.

Don’t miss the following analysis by Edward Hugh:

Too Soon to Cry “Victory” on Latvia and The “Three Speed” Global Manufacturing Recovery Continues in February.

26 Responses to “RGE’s Weekly Roundup”

blind homeland stupidityMarch 6th, 2010 at 5:09 pm

wow, its quiet in here. did the power go out?did someone turn off the lights? has the axis of theearth been altered by an earthquake? is it over?am i dead yet? did everyone wake up and i’m the onlyone left sleeping?.i will post this, turn down the lights and try towake up, it seems no one will mind. and then there isthis……http://artthreat.net/2010/03/avatars-protest-bilin/.Avatars protest Israeli occupation in Bil’inby Leslie Dreyer on March 4, 2010.”Protesters against the Israeli occupation of Palestine and the West Bank barrier wall take a more theatrical approach in Bil’in. On February 12, 5 Israeli, Palestinian and international demonstrators dressed as James Cameron-style Avatars marched towards the barrier, which has absorbed approximately 60% of this Palestinian village’s farmland, and were, per usual, met with tear gas and sound bombs. Though sporting blue painted bodies, pointy ears and long tails didn’t seem to faze the Israeli Defense Force, the tactics generated more media attention than usual for this weekly action.In 2004, the International Court of Justice declared the barrier a violation of international law, and the Israeli Supreme Court ruled that sections of it imposed “undue hardships on Palestinians and should be re-routed.” 3 weeks ago Israel began reconstruction of the wall returning 30% of the land it previously confiscated. Though this sparked celebration, demonstrators and maybe even occasional ‘Avatars’ will continue their weekly action demanding justice and the return of all illegally confiscated West Bank lands as they’ve done for the past 5 years.”.http://www.globalresearch.ca/index.php?context=va&aid=17964.Labor Unrest Spreads across Europe: Strike wave hits Europe as workers oppose austerity measuresby Ulrich RippertGlobal Research, March 5, 2010.”Under conditions of the globalisation of capitalist production, the trade unions, which are wedded to a nationalist perspective, are incapable of defending even the most basic interests of the working class. They have been transformed into direct agencies of the corporate-financial elite and the state.”.March 13: Civil Resistance to War and Empire in Nation’s CapitalPeace of the Action’s “Camp OUT NOW”, Washington, DC.Global Research, March 20, 2010..”Enough is enough! It’s time we up the ante and demand that our voices be heard and heeded. It’s time that the logical and rational voices of reason get a Peace of the Action.”…..”While the wars in Central Asia and the Middle East rage hotter and hotter, and while the suppression of our civil liberties here in the U.S. continue, Peace of the Action is demanding an immediate cessation to U.S. hostilities.”..http://www.brisbanetimes.com.au/world/probe-focuses-on-pentagon-gunmans-motives-20100306-pps9.html.Probe focuses on Pentagon gunman’s motivesWASHINGTONMarch 7, 2010″US investigators are examining what led a California man to open fire outside the Pentagon before he was fatally shot by police, with internet posts suggesting he feared a vast government conspiracy.Police said John Patrick Bedell, 36, acted alone and appeared to have no links to terrorist groups when he started shooting at close range at police near the entrance to the giant Defence Department building.Bedell, a former electrical engineering student from the small California town of Hollister, was shot in the head by the officers, two of whom suffered minor wounds.Pentagon security chief Richard Keevill said no motive had been found for the assault.The FBI and other agencies were looking at internet postings suggesting Bedell may have harboured resentment of the US government and promoted conspiracy theories about the September 11, 2001, attacks on New York and the Pentagon building.”..http://www.homelandstupidity.us/2010/02/18/desperate-man-flies-plane-into-irs-office-building/.“Desperate” man flies plane into IRS office buildingFebruary 18, 2010 @ Michael Hampton….”Those of you who are desperate, understand first that you aren’t alone, and there are ways out of this mess which don’t involve killing yourself or IRS agents. A good place to begin would be to learn the economics behind how we were all taken for a ride. Then you can recognize and denounce the people who want to do more of the same to you. There is a way out, and it’s called liberty. Learn the philosophy of liberty, why it is the only way to have real prosperity, and then join the rest of us who are working hard for a free society.”..Homeland Security profiles conservatives, libertarians as “right-wing extremists”April 14, 2009 @ Michael Hampton → 143 CommentsDid you buy extra ammunition after Barack Obama was elected President, and are you still concerned that he might ban your guns? Are you concerned that the economic crisis could devolve into a depression, or worse? Do you think the federal government has overstepped its authority under the Constitution? If so, the government thinks you’re a right-wing extremist and a potential terrorist threat.Last week the Department of Homeland Security Office of Intelligence and Analysis published an “analysis” of “right-wing extremists” in the United States in which it claims, quite vaguely, that: “Rightwing extremism in the United States can be broadly divided into those groups, movements, and adherents that are primarily hate-oriented (based on hatred of particular religious, racial or ethnic groups), and those that are mainly antigovernment, rejecting federal authority in favor of state or local authority, or rejecting government authority entirely. It may include groups and individuals that are dedicated to a single issue, such as opposition to abortion or immigration.”Naturally the document was leaked and has provoked a firestorm of controversy, with conservatives saying it unfairly paints their viewpoints as extremist. You’ll have to read it for yourself to see how far it goes in demonizing anyone who believes in individual rights and limited government. But here’s a sample:(U//FOUO) Rightwing extremist chatter on the Internet continues to focus on the economy, the perceived loss of U.S. jobs in the manufacturing and construction sectors, and home foreclosures. Anti-Semitic extremists attribute these losses to a deliberate conspiracy conducted by a cabal of Jewish “financial elites.” These “accusatory” tactics are employed to draw new recruits into rightwing extremist groups and further radicalize those already subscribing to extremist beliefs. DHS/I&A assesses this trend is likely to accelerate if the economy is perceived to worsen. . . .(U//FOUO) Historically, domestic rightwing extremists have feared, predicted, and anticipated a cataclysmic economic collapse in the United States. Prominent antigovernment conspiracy theorists have incorporated aspects of an impending economic collapse to intensify fear and paranoia among like-minded individuals and to attract recruits during times of economic uncertainty. Conspiracy theories involving declarations of martial law, impending civil strife or racial conflict, suspension of the U.S. Constitution, and the creation of citizen detention camps often incorporate aspects of a failed economy. Antigovernment conspiracy theories and “end times” prophecies could motivate extremist individuals and groups to stockpile food, ammunition, and weapons. . . .(U//FOUO) DHS/I&A assesses that rightwing extremists will attempt to recruit and radicalize returning veterans in order to exploit their skills and knowledge derived from military training and combat. These skills and knowledge have the potential to boost the capabilities of extremists — including lone wolves or small terrorist cells — to carry out violence. The willingness of a small percentage of military personnel to join extremist groups during the 1990s because they were disgruntled, disillusioned, or suffering from the psychological effects of war is being replicated today.That’s just the beginning.Interestingly, the report draws a distinction between “right-wing extremists” and “law-abiding citizens,” as if good, honest, moral people could not possibly hold any of these viewpoints.A DHS spokesman told FOX News that nothing was wrong with this assessment, citing a January assessment of left-wing extremists the department also issued.DHS spokeswoman Sara Kuban said the April 7 assessment is one in an ongoing series published by DHS “to facilitate a greater understanding of radicalization in the United States.”“DHS has no specific information that domestic right-wing terrorists are currently planning acts of violence, but right-wing extremists may be gaining new recruitments by playing on their fears about several emerging issues,” Kuban said. . . .“This is the job of DHS, to assess what is happening in this country, with regard to homegrown terrorism, and determine whether it’s an actual threat or not, and that’s what these assessments do. This is nothing unusual. These assessments are done all the time. This is about awareness,” the official told FOX News on Monday. — FOX NewsYou might be tempted to believe that if you hadn’t actually seen the left-wing extremist assessment, so I invite you to read it for yourself and contrast it to the right-wing extremist document. It’s much more clear about its definition of left-wing extremists and even gives examples of organizations it considers to be left-wing extremists (and they’re quite difficult to argue with, unfortunately for my more liberal readers).As you’ll see, the left-wing document is narrowly focused on specific groups and activities while the right-wing document covers almost any belief to the right of, well, Barack Obama. It names no organizations as examples, and as one commentator pointed out, doesn’t even say there’s an actual threat! You right-wing extremist loonies are just a potential threat to the nation, and so the government is going to have to keep an eye on you.This report smacks of profiling and harassing American citizens based on their political views, and specifically based on their opposition to the Obama administration’s proposals.This used to be called “democracy” and “free speech” protected by the First Amendment to the Constitution. But under Obama, “Homeland Security” has become an instrument of oppression of opposing points of view. — WorldNetDailyOh, Bush would have done the same thing if he thought he could get away with it. Let’s not pretend this is a purely Democratic problem. The problem is that the institution of government allows people who disagree with each other to beat each other over the head with the world’s largest hammer, and whoever is out of power must suffer at the hands of whoever is in power. That whoever is in power can be changed every couple of years makes it no less of a problem; it just means that everyone gets a chance to wield the hammer, and to be hit by it, in turn.Oops, that’s an antigovernment sentiment. I must be a right-wing extremist.”.http://www.homelandstupidity.us/documents/Leftwing_Extremist_Threat.pdf.comment /s . is there some sort of predictive trend emerging?.ps. it is the little things, the really minuscule things thatmake the ride, no matter how insane, memorable. ?ie. web site name, “Homeland Stupidity”. ( that just put me onanother slow burn laughing jag..and “list”, i’m sure ).it is simple, the solution. “authority” merely needs to make ittheir full time occupation to “listen”. to hear the thoughts,concerns and ideas of those they are employed to represent. whenno one is listening there is no feedback and no cause to maintainor achieve a state of rationality, or humanity. we will see.government // a clearinghouse for rational, informed and inspiredegalitarian present and future endeavor.homeland stupidity should be listening to people, not listeningin on people. they don’t understand the difference. so…refer above. people will do what people do when no one is listening or hears them. as people will demand that they be heard.a universal principle. bees do it, trees do it.. etc..and yes they know this stuff, they teach it, so their choice isintentional and it is all being gamed for asset advantage.maybe?..UNCLASSIFIED//FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY(U) Appendix: Leftwing Extremists(U//FOUO) DHS/Office of Intelligence and Analysis defines leftwing extremists asgroups or individuals who embrace radical elements of the anarchist, animal rights, orenvironmental movements and are often willing to violate the law to achieve theirobjectives. Many leftwing extremist groups are not hierarchically ordered with definedmembers, leaders, or chain of command structures but operate as loosely-connectedunderground movements composed of “lone wolves,” small cells, and splinter groups.— (U//LES) Animal rights and environmental extremists seek to end the perceivedabuse and suffering of animals and the degradation of the natural environmentperpetrated by humans. They use non-violent and violent tactics that, at times,violate criminal law. Many of these extremists claim they are conducting theseactivities on behalf of two of the most active groups, the Animal Liberation Frontand its sister organization, the Earth Liberation Front. Other prominent groupsinclude Stop Huntingdon Animal Cruelty; and chapters within the AnimalDefense LeagueUSPER, and Earth First!USPER.— (U//FOUO) Anarchist extremists generally embrace a number of radicalphilosophical components of anticapitalist, antiglobalization, communist,socialist, and other movements. Anarchist groups seek abolition of social,political, and economic hierarchies, including Western-style governments andlarge business enterprises, and frequently advocate criminal actions of varyingscale and scope to accomplish their goals. Anarchist extremist groups includeentities within CrimethincUSPER, the Ruckus SocietyUSPER ,and Recreate 68 USPER..comment: the federal reserve should appear somewhere on oneof these left or right lists.

PeterJBMarch 6th, 2010 at 6:38 pm

of Note:”Civilization is an unnatural act. We have to make it happen, you and I, together with all the other strangers. And because we and strangers have to agree on the difference between a horse thief and a horse trader, the distinction is ethical. Without it, a society becomes a war against all, and a market for the wolves becomes a slaughter for the lambs.” Bill Moyers – Commencement address to Hamilton College in 2006.”The modern conservative is engaged in one of man’s oldest exercises in moral philosophy: that is the search for a superior moral justification for selfishness.” : John Kenneth Galbraith=”The strongest passions and most dangerous weaknesses of the human breast; ambition, avarice, vanity, the honorable or venal love of fame, are all in conspiracy against the desire and duty of peace”: James Madison@ blindman”quiet”, to men, is lonely and not a place to be; noisy is preferred where misery keeps it company,and”quiet” is where Man prefers; the ordained place to be. “Quiet”, is a state where evocations are blocked; “quiet” is where intellect is borne from the finding of the esoteric and where Man is processed become; “quiet” is where harmony abounds and from which mythology is built, that is, the persuasive truth. “quiet” is where the power lays.Ho hum=”Civilization is an unnatural act. We have to make it happen, you and I, together with all the other strangers. And because we and strangers have to agree on the difference between a horse thief and a horse trader, the distinction is ethical. Without it, a society becomes a war against all, and a market for the wolves becomes a slaughter for the lambs.” Bill Moyers – Commencement address to Hamilton College in 2006.Courtesy of http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/Keywords and Phrases: “Civilization is an unnatural act…” | Man | quiet | “Civilization is an unnatural act… ” |Question: How does civilization get built when fools engage in those crasse natural acts which defines, a priori, “leadership”?Ho hum

blindman, mikeMarch 6th, 2010 at 9:35 pm

@pjb”Question: How does civilization get built when fools engage in those crasse natural acts which defines, a priori, “leadership”?”.to differentiate the natural from the unnatural andthe civilized from the uncivilized? and then the civilized,civilization, from the natural and unnatural…. ?.civilization as the secondary external womb for infantileman kind, prematurely booted from his natural womb for “fear”of evolutionary matricide, thereby destroying the species andits potential.enter, gender, as an intellectual conception. man. to conceive and construct the externalwomb for his offspring, species survival. civilization.unnatural ? secondary womb / housing and by extension communityand of necessity language , tongue has no bone, etc.. plasticity.there was a time when man thought it was perfectly natural,a natural impulse on the part of man, to build a home.no more?.[ here the knot. real estate. tangential derivative extended out over time and disconnected from the originalfunction as these intersect with mans propensity to projectexternally his internal impulses , uncivilized civilization.].and potentially uncontrolled / uncontrollable potential solutionsto this original problem / sin. and each solution is a communalconviction, no pun intended but its there anyway..problem: “civilization” is an observation within a narrative aswell as …. the cumulativeactivity that produces the rearrangement of matter and the resultinginfluence on persons activities, behaviors, and states are notof “civilization” but, as you imply, natural, or uncivilized, ornot sane, insane. so we do crazy and insane things and look backat it all and term it collectively our “civilization”. but thiscategorization and recollection, filter, is skewed. we forgetthe gritty truth of the uncivilized behaviors that produced the”civilized” result, in hind/skewed sight. the bullshit of history..or civilization is enjoyed by some at the expense of those whoactually do the work/sacrifice to create it, as you quoted..or so…we need layers of complexity in law to blur thedistinction of “horse trader and horse thief”..as you say, quiet is truly civilized and the source of revelation as to how to proceed. nature has solved these problems before and the solutions are built into the infrastructure of ecology’s (?) both collective and individual, and they have been transcribed alsointo psychological states or states of consciousness/awareness, accessed via quiet and concernedattentiveness. ” do no harm ” as a mental attitude. trulycivilized. and there is a golden rule. and a single preceptof “non-violence”. or …quiet. man loves quiet. most peoplejust want to be left alone, quiet, to then proceed as they feelinspired. but there is always the creeping encroachment of …civilization. gratification in ignorance. even the hermits received meals delivered to them while in retreat in the caves. did they see, ourselves!.so can we properly displace or eliminate these dynamics toallow for Man to exist as Man. or is this the wrong question? or should man just be the clever ape that he is? and we should all just accept and promote this as heroic “ideal” idol? does discussion and comprehension have any influence on the drama,unfolding? who benefits from civilization? the civilized or the natural?.as this may be an entirely unacceptable response i offermy deepest apologies here. [ or here ]! [ x ]. but remember, i tried!.ps.speaking of weekly roundup..(“cutting the Gordian knot”):”Turn him to any cause of policy,The Gordian Knot of it he will unloose,Familiar as his garter” (Shakespeare, Henry V, Act 1 Scene 1. 45–47).Legend”At one time the Phrygians were without a legitimate king. An oracle at Telmissus (the ancient capital of Phrygia) decreed that the next man to enter the city driving an ox-cart should become their king. This man was a poor peasant, Gordias, who drove into town on his ox-cart. He was declared king by the priests. This had been predicted in a second way by a sign of the gods, when an eagle had landed on that ox-cart. In gratitude, his son Midas dedicated the ox-cart[1] to the Phrygian god Sabazios (whom the Greeks identified with Zeus) and either tied it to a post or tied its shaft with an intricate knot of cornel (Cornus mas) bark. The ox-cart[2] still stood in the palace of the former kings of Phrygia at Gordium in the fourth century BC when Alexander arrived, at which point Phrygia had been reduced to a satrapy, or province, of the Persian Empire.”…ps.speaking of lists. they need to include the intellectuals,writers, poets, artists, musicians, historians and ( all creative andcurious / concerned types ) just to be thorough.which administration initiated “homeland stupidity /security”and under what/which circumstances? a narrative!.narrative is supreme, we know. when you cannot forge acohesive and intelligible narrative, which today has becomeeven incrementally challenging, ( babel ) , ( double speak ) ,)tangential minutia out of context( , in a chaotic field ofpopulation and technological explosion and revolution, we havespecial interests doing their best to steal as much as humanlypossible in the shortest amount of time and desperately tryingto construct, or clinging to, an historic and failed and ridiculous self serving NARRATIVE> supreme. i have tried tomake or otherwise highlight this point as it seems important..thank you for your attention in this matter as a narrative whichmakes no sense, has no truth, has no meaning or impact. doesnot capture the collective consciousness and does not bindbehavior of strangers. civilization. bound behavior of strangersin a mutually beneficial field of uncertainty. collective empathy,from the heart. what is missing. in the dialogue of authority.that would be the Truth. but it is always here, there andeverywhere, quietly lamenting and giggling its silly littlehead off.good ….night..http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SWJvohfCCdk.” wine wine the goose drank winethe monkey chew tobacco on a street car linethe line broke, the monkey got chokedand they all went to heaven in a littlerow boat. clap hands …”.http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HsO8xWWj6Aw&feature=related.ppss.in the future, some day, maybe later today or monday or maybenever? check prn null archives for 03/05/10. dr. julian whitaker interview. also seems important..keyword: paradigm. (narrative dependent). cancer, neoplastic..neoplasticity and its overtones as relates to government andindividual human activities..peptides. secondary immune system. ( individual integrity,honor, leadership, consilience, man. sun, light and transparency. ).http://www.burzynskiclinic.com/.http://www.burzynskiclinic.com/ph/clinical-trials-antineoplastons.html.Antineoplastons (ANP) are peptides and amino acid derivatives, discovered by Dr. S. Burzynski, M.D., Ph.D. in 1967.Dr. Burzynski first identified naturally occurring peptides in the human body that control cancer growth. He observed that cancer patients typically had deficiency of certain peptides in their blood as compared to healthy individuals.According to Dr. Burzynski, Antineoplastons are components of a biochemical defense system that controls cancer without destroying normal cells.Chemically, the Antineoplastons include peptides, amino acid derivatives and organic acids. They occur naturally in blood and urine and they are reproduced synthetically for medicinal use.The name of Antineoplastons comes from their functions in controlling neoplastic, or cancerous, cells (anti-neoplastic cells agents)..ppp sss….the narrative containing truth .. , awaits re cognition.it will not be revealed via a “party” or “department” orany “independent organization”. it will become apparent asit must through .. self/s. but, you have to be interestedin seeing what is real and what is true, very interestedand concerned, and, it is available..once again, good …. night..thanks peter. you are a pioneer in the best sense of theWord!i shall now attempt …Quiet. god knows i need it. i have toget back to standing on my head…etc..ppppssss.one more thing. the definition of either right or leftextremist seems to coincide with the definition of theIndividual. they should try to differentiate these twoon some level that does not require the individual to pervertitself entirely to the dictates of an inhuman consensus established by disinterested third and fourth parties withprimary concerns centered on gambling and exploiting lifeenergies and resources to satisfy their own delusional insecurities.now i’ll attempt quiet, seriously.

RedCreekMarch 6th, 2010 at 7:40 pm

HA! The Professor will be in the Wall Street 2 movie (Gordon Gekko – Greed is Good) – looking forward to seeing this!!!:)http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/b0c0c69e-9e69-11de-b0aa-00144feabdc0.htmlRoubini cameoBy Emma JacobsPublished: September 11 2009 03:00 | Last updated: September 11 2009 03:00This week, we heard that Nouriel Roubini, the New York University economics professor, who recently warned of the danger of a double-dip recession, has been offered a cameo role in Oliver Stone’s upcoming Wall Street sequel. Despite prophesying the economic crisis, he told me, he would never have predicted being offered a role in a Hollywood film.Mr Stone approached Professor Roubini to discuss the financial meltdown as part of his research. “The focus of the scripts two or three years ago was hedge funds, now it has turned to commercial banks,” says Prof Roubini, who threw a cocktail party so that the Hollywood director and the actor Shia LaBoeuf could talk to asset and hedge fund managers and bankers.Will “greed is good”, the immortal words delivered by Gordon Gekko in the original, be even more pertinent now? People have always been driven by greed, says Prof Roubini. “It’s not as if bankers or traders are more greedy than then.” The question, he says, is how do you make sure regulation and incentives curb its excesses? Such policy issues are unlikely to make the final cut.

PeterJBMarch 7th, 2010 at 2:16 am

@ blindmanfirst round:”.to differentiate the natural from the unnatural andthe civilized from the uncivilized? and then the civilized,civilization, from the natural and unnatural…. ?”… is complicity; an Universal Principle. But to judge, is an attribute of the dog,er, Anubis.

blind double dog.March 7th, 2010 at 3:25 am

man has free will up until his imageof the world ceases to correspond tothe actual world, at which point hebecomes a dog, less the charm, where we are todaydue lack of vision, imagination; but our senseof smell has improved, or theoretically,should have. the odor of decay is definatelyin. if you have a dog you know they pay particularattention to these bacterial scents. cents. sense.i will need all the luck i can get, also.dogs too have a map in their head that helpsthem navigate space and time, based on odor, perhapssuperior to what man has contrived to date.??half joking. as my wife says ” if you respect me,you’ll shut the fuck up.” then i laugh a lot.life is too funny like that. let me go and shut up,out of respect.

PeterJBMarch 7th, 2010 at 4:11 am

Whatever the milieux dictates, if it exists therein, will reign supreme, if un-natural thought, er, attitude, sleeps; for, all there is, is the original Cause, er, a thought.Ho hum

PeterJBMarch 7th, 2010 at 4:22 am

dogs:judgement of the necessary nature is risk assessment and I can do that myself, where dogs are true and often, trusted friends,Ho hum

PeterJBMarch 7th, 2010 at 1:30 pm

That the “expurts” do eventually catch on, albeit slowly:Stephen Roach, Chairman of Morgan Stanley Asia, recently remarked that “It is well-documented by economists at SocGen and elsewhere, that the world has now entered a race to the currency bottom.”FRIDAY, MARCH 5, 2010Is a Big Oil Producer in the Middle East Hoovering Gold?http://www.truthingold.blogspot.com/Speaking of smell, I enjoyed a great “Stilton” yesterday with a friend that smelled like an Egyptian mummy’s socks; absolutely marvellous;-)>Ho hum

PeterJBMarch 8th, 2010 at 4:03 pm

a.Please forgive my poor construct; it was the Stilton, indeed, which after all, was conditioned by “that”, while my friend, who also enjoyed the Stilton, was not. But, damn, it was most magnificent, the Stilton, that is.Ho hum

JLarkinMarch 7th, 2010 at 9:33 pm

I am confused by Nouriel’s talking of both a U shaped recovery and a W. Is he talking about the S&P500, which is pretty much V shaped now? Or is he talking about something else?You cannot have a W shaped recovery without first having a V, as with the S&P500 today. But if you start with a V, how can you end up with U? Therefore, a U shaped recovery and a W cannot both be possibilities for the future, only one or the other.

GuestMarch 8th, 2010 at 2:00 am

Jnuthin makes sense these daystechnical analysis, elliot wave, fundamental????? baaaahhhheverybody loves the status quo, politician, banksters, Joe6P,heeellleven the unemployed loved the status quothe prof just doesnt know what to talked bout anymore”the cucumber has become pickles””the biscuit has become stale””MJ has become whittish”

The AlarmistMarch 8th, 2010 at 6:22 am

Why do you think it is called a “Double-U” ? Just because most type-faces have spikes at the bottom of the W does not necessarily mean it can’t also be two U’s.

Anonymous ibid.March 8th, 2010 at 12:28 pm

You’re confusing the economy with the stock market, JLarkin.The stock market has experienced a V-shaped recovery. If it is a secular bear market, it can evolve into a W. If it’s a new bull, then it will continue on its path.But economists do not predict markets. They predict economies. The US economy has gone from steep negative growth to subpar growth– not the 6% typical of a real recovery, but maybe 2.7%, which is more like average growth. If 1% growth were to continue indefinitely, it would create a perfect L shape. This is because we need 1% growth simply to cover population growth. 2.7% growth– which increasingly appears to be an optimistic estimate– is a little better than an L, but not that much. One can call it a U.

JLarkinMarch 8th, 2010 at 9:42 am

Sure, but if we’re talking about the stock market, we already have a V in place. Nouriel says the market will mostly move sideways now, so we have a V~~~, or maybe a square root sign. I’m just asking what is going to be U shaped?

Anonymous ibid.March 8th, 2010 at 12:31 pm

Read more carefully, J.At least in this post, Nouriel never makes a prediction about the market.

JLarkinMarch 8th, 2010 at 4:08 pm

Apparently you haven’t been around that long. He talked at length about the sucker’s rally last year… also on Squawk Box, etc.

Anonymous ibid.March 8th, 2010 at 5:29 pm

No, JLarson, I’ve been posting since early 2007.Looking at Google News, Nouriel made predictions of a sucker’s rally in January-July of 2009 (some references with more recent dates are actually from that period). That’s pretty clearly not what your post is referring to.Roubini’s claim that last year’s rally was a sucker’s rally was simply wrong. His reasons were sound–the market was and is overvalued (see, for example, http://www.multpl.com/). Even at the depth of the crash, it was not in what is generally called “cheap” territory. He called the collapse of 2008 way too early as well. One could make a lot of money between his first prediction of a housing crisis and the market crash.But he’s an economist, not a market tout. For his clients, he gives early warnings of danger signs in the world economies. Better to hear a warning early, and start to get prepared than to hear the warning only after your portfolio has been cut in half.Listening to Nouriel, the stocks I own have beat the market by 17 percentage points since 1/08. Listening to him doesn’t always mean taking his advice the second he gives it.

ooh poo pah do.March 8th, 2010 at 9:58 pm

notes for the record..http://www.progressiveradionetwork.com/the-gary-null-show-wnye/2010/3/8/the-gary-null-show-030810.html.shows from 3/5 -8/2010 . listen. quiet. 3/9-11/2010. quiet..http://www.pnas.org/content/early/2010/02/04/0915161107.full.pdf+html.The Lucretian swerve: The biological basis of humanbehavior and the criminal justice systemAnthony R. Cashmore1.is appropriate, at this rather late stage, to define what is meant by“free will.” Searle has described free will as the belief “that wecould often have done otherwise than we in fact did” (15). A difficultywith this definition is that it does not distinguish free willfrom the variability associated with stochasticism. For this reason,I believe that free will is better defined as a belief that there is acomponent to biological behavior that is something more than theunavoidable consequences of the genetic and environmental historyof the individual and the possible stochastic laws of nature.Here, in some ways, it might be more appropriate to replace“genetic and environmental history” with “chemistry”—however,in this instance these terms are likely to be similar and the former isthe one commonly used in such discussions.Biologists and Free WillEarlier I noted that, throughout history, philosophers haverepeatedly questioned the validity of free will. However, in spiteof this and the sparsity of evidence or credible models in supportof free will, it has been my experience that relatively few biologistsseriously question the concept of free will. This holds inspite of the fact that we live in an era when few biologists wouldquestion the idea that biological systems are totally based on thelaws of physics and chemistry. For example, in a beautifully lucidaccount of the origin and complexity of life,.The Selective Advantage of ConsciousnessIn discussing free will, Susan Blackmore has noted that “manyscientists believe that the real causal factors are all those interactingneurons that do many things including creating a sense of self, and asense of free will—both of which are illusions” (19). She goes on tosay, “I think nature has played this enormous joke on us.” Inaddressing the same issue, Rita Carter has asked, “If free will is anillusion and each of our actions is determined by unconsciouscognitive processes in response to external stimuli, why should ourbrains delude us into thinking otherwise?” (30). A variation on thisquestion is: what is the evolutionary selective advantage of consciousness?One answer to this question is that consciousness providesus with an apparent sense of responsibility: “Along with theillusion of control, our sense of agency brings the burdens of individualresponsibility. Though this may sometimes weigh heavily onus personally, for society as a whole it is hugely beneficial. Ourentire morality and judicial system is dependent on everyoneaccepting that they are agents of their own misdeeds, and those whodon’t acknowledge this are—by legal definition—insane. We maynot consciously control our own actions, but the cognitive mechanismsthat create the illusion that we do keep society functioning”(30).Asimilar argument has been made byWegner: “The ability toknow what one will do . . . would seem to be an important humanasset. . .. This preview function could be fundamentally importantfor the facilitation of social interaction” (23).I find that the above are attractive explanations for the existence(the selective advantage) of consciousness. Furthermore, I believethat for these to be true, and somewhat in contrast to the aboveconclusions derived from Libet’s “fingermoving experiment,” theremust be a mechanism by which consciousness does influencebehavior. There must be a flow of information from consciousnessto neural activity (Fig. 1C, arrow 2). However, in keeping with therequirement for causality and the necessity to comply with the lawsof nature, this flow of information provides nothing other than aproduct of the input information (Fig. 1C, arrow 1). Although, likeany biosynthetic process, the product may be quite distinct fromtheinput material, it is still a direct consequence of these materials.I suggest that consciousness acts on behavior in a similar manner,such as to commonly reinforce the negative effects that are associatedwith antisocial behavior. Similarly, for some of us, consciousnessheightens our desire to listen to music, for example, or towatch or participate in sporting activities. Whereas the impressionsare that we are making “free” conscious decisions, the reality is thatconsciousness is simply a state of awareness that reflects the inputsignals, and these are an unavoidable consequence of GES. Themechanistic details of these conscious processes are unknown, andremain the major unsolved problem in biology (31).In summary, then, I believe that free will is clearly an illusion.However, this is not to say that consciousness does not have afunction. I believe it does, and from this I assume that it mustgive rise to an evolutionary selective advantage. Consciousnessconfers the illusion of responsibility. No wonder the belief in freewill is so prevalent in society—the very survival of those “selfishfree-will genes” is predicated on their capacity to con one intobelieving in free will!A belief in free will is akin to religious beliefs. Indeed, I wouldargue that free will makes “logical sense,” as long as one has theluxury of the “causal magic” of religion. Neither religious beliefs, nora belief in free will, comply with the laws of the physical world.However, despite this similarity, although in scientific circles askeptical viewpoint is very common regarding religious forces andtheir day-to-day impact on biological systems, it is my observationthat similar skepticism is not widely held regarding a belief in free will.If the existence of free will is so widely accepted and has strongsurvival value, then why would we want to change it? Because, as aconsequence of the advance in our understanding of the molecularbasis of human behavior, it will become increasingly difficultto entertain this fallacy that currently has such a strong influencein the way we govern society. As Crick has written in reference tothe relationship between human values and scientific knowledge,.If the existence of free will is so widely accepted and has strongsurvival value, then why would we want to change it? Because, as aconsequence of the advance in our understanding of the molecularbasis of human behavior, it will become increasingly difficultto entertain this fallacy that currently has such a strong influencein the way we govern society. As Crick has written in reference tothe relationship between human values and scientific knowledge,“To construct a New System of the World we need both inspirationand imagination, but imagination building on flawed foundationswill, in the long run, fail to satisfy. Dream as we may,reality knocks relentlessly at the door. Even if perceived reality islargely a construct of our brains, it has to chime with the real worldor eventually we grow dissatisfied with it” (18)…..http://www.truthdig.com/report/item/calling_all_rebels_20100308/.Calling All RebelsPosted on Mar 8, 2010By Chris Hedges….”The French moral philosopher Albert Camus argued that we are separated from each other. Our lives are meaningless. We cannot influence fate. We will all die and our individual being will be obliterated. And yet Camus wrote that “one of the only coherent philosophical positions is revolt. It is a constant confrontation between man and his obscurity. It is not aspiration, for it is devoid of hope. That revolt is the certainty of a crushing fate, without the resignation that ought to accompany it.”“A living man can be enslaved and reduced to the historic condition of an object,” Camus warned. “But if he dies in refusing to be enslaved, he reaffirms the existence of another kind of human nature which refuses to be classified as an object.”The rebel, for Camus, stands with the oppressed—the unemployed workers being thrust into impoverishment and misery by the corporate state, the Palestinians in Gaza, the civilians in Iraq and Afghanistan, the disappeared who are held in our global black sites, the poor in our inner cities and depressed rural communities, immigrants and those locked away in our prison system. And to stand with them does not mean to collaborate with parties, such as the Democrats, who can mouth the words of justice while carrying out acts of oppression. It means open and direct defiance..“You do not become a ‘dissident’ just because you decide one day to take up this most unusual career,” Vaclav Havel said when he battled the communist regime in Czechoslovakia. “You are thrown into it by your personal sense of responsibility, combined with a complex set of external circumstances. You are cast out of the existing structures and placed in a position of conflict with them. It begins as an attempt to do your work well, and ends with being branded an enemy of society. … The dissident does not operate in the realm of genuine power at all. He is not seeking power. He has no desire for office and does not gather votes. He does not attempt to charm the public. He offers nothing and promises nothing. He can offer, if anything, only his own skin—and he offers it solely because he has no other way of affirming the truth he stands for. His actions simply articulate his dignity as a citizen, regardless of the cost.”Those in power have disarmed the liberal class. They do not argue that the current system is just or good, because they cannot, but they have convinced liberals that there is no alternative. But we are not slaves. We have a choice. We can refuse to be either a victim or an executioner. We have the moral capacity to say no, to refuse to cooperate. Any boycott or demonstration, any occupation or sit-in, any strike, any act of obstruction or sabotage, any refusal to pay taxes, any fast, any popular movement and any act of civil disobedience ignites the soul of the rebel and exposes the dead hand of authority. “There is beauty and there are the humiliated,” Camus wrote. “Whatever difficulties the enterprise may present, I should like never to be unfaithful either to the second or the first.”“There is a time when the operation of the machine becomes so odious, makes you so sick at heart, that you can’t take part; you can’t even passively take part, and you’ve got to put your bodies upon the gears and upon the wheels, upon the levers, upon all the apparatus, and you’ve got to make it stop,” Mario Savio said in 1964. “And you’ve got to indicate to the people who run it, to the people who own it, that unless you’re free, the machine will be prevented from working at all.”The capacity to exercise moral autonomy, the capacity to refuse to cooperate, offers us the only route left to personal freedom and a life with meaning. Rebellion is its own justification. Those of us who come out of the religious left have no quarrel with Camus. Camus is right about the absurdity of existence, right about finding worth in the act of rebellion rather than some bizarre dream of an afterlife or Sunday School fantasy that God rewards the just and the good. “Oh my soul,” the ancient Greek poet Pindar wrote, “do not aspire to immortal life, but exhaust the limits of the possible.” We differ with Camus only in that we have faith that rebellion is not ultimately meaningless. Rebellion allows us to be free and independent human beings, but rebellion also chips away, however imperceptibly, at the edifice of the oppressor and sustains the dim flames of hope and love. And in moments of profound human despair these flames are never insignificant. They keep alive the capacity to be human. We must become, as Camus said, so absolutely free that “existence is an act of rebellion.” Those who do not rebel in our age of totalitarian capitalism and who convince themselves that there is no alternative to collaboration are complicit in their own enslavement. They commit spiritual and moral suicide.”..willPronunciation: wəl, (ə)l, əl, ˈwilFunction: verbInflected Form(s): past would wəd, (ə)d, ˈwu̇d present singular & plural willEtymology: Middle English (1st & 3d singular present indicative), from Old English wille (infinitive wyllan); akin to Old High German wili (3d singular present indicative) wills, Latin velle to wish, willDate: before 12th centurytransitive verb : desire, wish <call it what you will>verbal auxiliary 1 —used to express desire, choice, willingness, consent, or in negative constructions refusal <no one would take the job> <will you please stop that racket>2 —used to express frequent, customary, or habitual action or natural tendency or disposition <will get angry over nothing> <will work one day and loaf the next>3 —used to express futurity <tomorrow morning I will wake up in this first-class hotel suite — Tennessee Williams>4 —used to express capability or sufficiency <the back seat will hold three passengers>5 —used to express probability and often equivalent to the simple verb <that will be the babysitter>6 a —used to express determination, insistence, persistence, or willfulness b —used to express inevitability7 —used to express a command, exhortation, or injunction <you will do as I say, at once>intransitive verb : to have a wish or desire <whether we will or no>usage see shall— if you will : if you wish to call it that .comment: if choice is determined, deterministic, in the moment, then “free” ( misnomer) will would be a large collection of choicescreating a paradigm of deterministic affiliations and mechanismsconnected to an atypical paradigmic conception in adherence toa plan or vision of questionable practicality. “free” of the constraints of the existing norm, or insane. radical..free will is not common to all, is not free, but is paid for withhuman sacrifice and planning or conception. life and death.man has will. and is made responsible for it with life anddeath being the result/s. no free. response able. echoes.the genetic code of life is the language and infrastructureof freedom as the universe has seen fit to state. we can see and hear.something must “exist” before a qualification can bearticulated. no? and how would that something come into existence?if not by an act of the “will”? who’s will? who cares? andwhat does it matter anyway? and if free will is an illusion as isidentity then….. “so what”? m.d..keywords: life . death, paradigm, freedom, moment, will,slavery, slave keeper, freeman, creeping inflation denied,orca in captivity, perverted echoes, silence, deafening,insanity, popcorn, more and better war movies, bad definitionsmake for good articles, rational complexity imitating irrationalreality, cloud bursting, centrifugal force, digital viruses,but wait. assumptions. man is not responsible for his environment as a given precept is pure bullshit, idiotic. as to say the man who freezes to death and the man who stays warm in the evening of frost are neither responsible. this is in fact illogical andflies in the face of everything rational and intelligent etc.obviously the man who survives, by virtue of his actions and intelligence and “will”, choices, is responding, responsible, for his survival and its relationship to his surroundings. the one who freezes to death is dead, ceasing to be responsible, responding. lost his will, (life). in summation, interesting discussion, horseshit conclusion. lawyers make bad biologists and or philosophers.excellent swervers.to state that man is not responsible is just embracing irresponsibility, begging for enslavement by those who knowhow to dispose of slaves..quietly.