Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

RGE’s Weekly Roundup

Check out all of the RGE analysis and EconoMonitor contributions that were published this past week at

RGE Analysis:

A couple months ago, in a widely read FT op-ed, Nouriel Roubini warned that the “mother of all carry trades,” one funded in U.S. dollar denominated debt, could pump up asset bubbles around the world. This past Monday, RGE released two new reports, both available exclusively to RGE clients, forecasting where and how this trend might unfold. Our macro analysis, “Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency-by-Currency Forecast for 2010,” estimates the interest rate paths and currency trends for several potential carry trade funding and recipient currencies. RGE’s strategy team then looks at implications of these potential rate moves for investors in a parallel analysis, “Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade.”

Please read:

Carry Trade Hotspots: A Currency-by-Currency Forecast for 2010 by Mikka Pineda, Mary Stokes, Bertrand Delgado, Mikko Forss, Kavitha Cherian, Arpitha Bykere and Christian Menegatti [Available to RGE Clients Only]

Come to Mother: An RGE Strategy for the 2010 Carry Trade by Arnab Das, Natalia Gurushina, Jennifer Kapila and Elisa Parisi-Capone [Available to RGE Clients Only]


On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Rachel Ziemba and Christian Menegatti consider the possible causes of a slowdown in reserve accumulation by emerging market economies, but whatever the cause, the pause might be short-lived.  See Could Capital Inflows to EM be Slowing?

Michael Moran examines the implications for financial reform legislation making its way through Congress as the chairman of the Senate Banking Committee decides not to seek reelection.  Read Dodd Unbound.

Please read RGE’s Wednesday Note – The Carry Trade in 2010 by RGE Analyst Team


On the Finance & Markets Monitor, Simon Johnson wonders whether “All Serious Economists Agree” that too big to fail banks are a huge problem that must be addressed with some urgency.

In Are the Easy Gains Behind Us? James Picerno asks whether the economic rebound will build a head of steam that is self sustaining in 2010?

Also on Finance & Markets Monitor:

Yet More Financial Innovation by James Kwak

Don’t Forget Financial Sector Reform by John Lipsky


On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, Edward Harrison is worried about debt caused in large part by artificially low interest rates, which he labels the economic Ponzi scheme.  See Why Economists Failed to Anticipate the Financial Crisis.

In The Myth of Nabucco: Greed, Delusion, and Geopolitics, John Daly examines whether the Nabucco pipeline is worth the projected $11.4 Billion.

Also on the Global Macro EconoMonitor:

Exchange Rate Regime of Systemically Important Countries by Ajay Shah

2010 Outlook: New Year, New Decade, New Challenges by John Lipsky

The Price Tag for Damage Control by James Picerno

World Income Distribution: Not Normal by Rebecca Wilder


On the U.S. EconoMonitor, Rick Bookstaber considers the positive effects of Controlled-Burn Inflation.

In Out of the Gate with a Bang, Tim Duy examines the cloudy path to a sustained recovery as the economy gathers steam.

Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor:

Bernanke Still Does Not Understand Credit Crisis by Barry Ritholtz

No to Bernanke by James Kwak

What’s Ahead for the Economy and Politics in 2010 by Robert Reich

Picture du Jour: The Lost Decade for the U.S. Economy by Prieur du Plessis

Pension Disaster Makes States and Cities into Financial Basket Cases by Edward Harrison

Stopping Counter-Productive Mortgage Mods and Foreclosure Abatements by Barry Ritholtz

52% of Small Businesses See Conditions Worsening in Next Six Months by Yves Smith

Chart du Jour: No Signs of Imminent Rate Hike by Prieur du Plessis

Bernanke Grades the Fed by James Hamilton

Let Them Eat Lobster! by Yves Smith

A Look at Our Government’s Debt – Rising Because We Like to Spend by Fabius Maximus


On the Emerging Markets Monitor, Michael Pettis casts his vote for GDP-linked securities.  See China New Year, and One More Vote for GDP-Adjusted Bonds.

In China and Metal – Playing the Long Game, China Economist looks at the shocking scale of Chinese metals imports.


On the Asia EconoMonitor, James Hamilton considers Inflation in China and the remarkable increases in the relative prices of specific items.

In Asia Tells the West to Get Off its High Horse, Edward Harrison looks at the waning of the West’s moral authority.


On the Europe EconoMonitor, Edward Hugh analyzes the economic situation in Greece.  See That “Staggering” Greek Deficit Continues to Stagger Onwards and Upwards.

In A Decade to Tip the World to the East, David Smith gives his outlook for the UK economy.

Also on the Europe EconoMonitor:

Unemployment in Europe: It’s Not Just Spain by Rebecca Wilder

Ten New Year Questions for Paul Krugman by Edward Hugh

27 Responses to “RGE’s Weekly Roundup”

PeterJBJanuary 8th, 2010 at 8:04 pm

The x10 most powerful forces in play today throughout the global playing field:1. ignorance2. irrationality3. incompetence,4. ineptitude5. insanity6. intensity7. inability8. insolence9. arrogance10.agenda”Not a single meaningful reform has taken place on US soil, which guarantees the continuation of the credit crisis is assured. No substantial reduction of US home loan balance sheets. No return of US manufacturing. No liquidation of dead US banks. No removal of Goldman Sachs from control of the USDept Treasury. No disclosure of US Federal Reserve disbursements of over $1 trillion. No steps to restore the Glass Steagall Act to create firewalls between the financial sectors. No effort to prosecute for $trillion bond fraud. No initiative to bring to light the deep criminal lace to Fannie Mae and AIG, now protected under USGovt aegis. No attempt to rein in military spending and endless wars. No movement to create a monetary system with a currency other than the current debt denominated $20 bill coupons. Instead, with much greater force, enthusiasm, and recklessness, the financial system hurtled deeper into the Weimar chambers of commerce. Worse, most steps simply apply greater doses of precisely what caused the problems with debt overload and excessive monetary expansion. Worse doubly, most reforms grant even more power to those responsible for the breakdowns and fraud perpetration. The Untied States is being recognized internationally as a rogue nation moving headlong toward communism, run by powerful syndicates, whose most prominent foreign policy is explained by military hardware.” cannot take the risk out of the measure of life as such is akin to removing the blood from the body; such as taking the fun, enjoyment and pain out of adventure; the happiness and sadness out of living.Raise thine eyes and behold before thee, your “leadership” and “elite” drive our global society into the abyss in order to satisfy their personal demons and whims from the hell of status quo, a most ancient order that demands to be now recorded only and to reside written history. It is time to seal this tome now gone.The modern yet precise definition of life itself clarifies the machinations of this consensual fungal matt of these dastardly deadly forces that struggle in the clutches of the death throes; indeed, its days are done; its temporal signature has reached its nigh, albeit sans fruition but pain and lesson both residue as salts, to be taken with caution, but to serve as medicine from similar future viral infection; it is now time for the ‘extremis’ of this phenomenon spent, that time when that primal scream will resound to rise across and beyond eternity, in an energized harmonic of this time in the measure of human evolution. Welcome.It is time to rebuild and move on as the future will bring greater promise for that man that accepts its own destiny, with full responsibility in a risk model.Ho humand, er, first.

PeterJBJanuary 9th, 2010 at 6:09 pm

Speaking of possibility and the elements of probabilities in, er, of course, the risk model:”I can hear detractors declaring: “That was then this is now!” “We don’t live in Communist Poland, this is America and it can’t happen here!””Are you sure? Take a hard look at the TSA; government intrusion into every aspect of our lives; rogue police officers committing crimes that only a few years ago would have brought public outrage but now are sanctioned by “law”; regulations upon regulations designed to leave us no better off than defenseless, destitute medieval serfs; then there is Congress which is staffed by blatant fools who have brought one of greatest economies in modern history to its knees and on the verge of a catastrophic meltdown. Do I really need to go on?”>Are you sure” appears to be an appropriate question and perhaps even imperceptible, an appropriate word?Ho hum

PeterJBJanuary 9th, 2010 at 7:28 pm

Three in a row: “how’zat”?”We find it of great interest that Timmy, the dwarf, Geithner, removed the bailout limitations on Fannie and Freddie on Christmas Eve, when no one was around to see the news on the major media. This is what you could expect from a habitual tax cheat and a crook.Worse yet, as head of the NY Fed he pressured AIG to violate SEC laws by instructing them to withhold from the public details of a $200 billion taxpayer bailout of AIG. We paid these bankers 100% on the dollar for worthless paper. The dwarf should be thrown out of his job immediately and be tried for tax fraud.In case you missed it, Barney Frank found Geithner and the Fed’s actions troubling. This proves again Washington is a criminal enterprise and a den of thieves. Where does it end? We will tell you if we can’t clear out Congress we are doomed.” emphasis mine hum

PeterJBJanuary 9th, 2010 at 7:40 pm

I just wonder when you get to this state of the state, just how does the GDP fare?”Incidentally, there are now more government employees than goods-producing workers in the US.” (i have seen this reported a few times now) government meddling directly add / contribute to positive national productivity or is it just a heavily inefficient overhead? This is not paradoxical as such phenomena cannot and do not exist, so just where does this place the economy of the USA, when the ~70% consumer contributor factor to the GDP has gone on a diet?Keywords: bankruptHo hum

Average JaneJanuary 9th, 2010 at 8:44 pm

PJB, just dropping in to say hello. I am surprised at how many posters have apparently abandoned this site. Thank you for continuing to post thought-provoking items. Your friend, AJ.

HubbsJanuary 11th, 2010 at 9:41 pm

Abandoned? I keep getting blocked out and on lucky days (2 in the last month, I solve the maze and I find this blog with one or two familiar posters.)Have been checking Market ticker, Zerohedge, but they lack the easy back and forth discussion communication and links footnoted in the comments that we once had on the old RGE blog.Interesting on market-ticker point today about the amount ???500 billion??? the gov has paid out in unemployment and renewed unemployment benefits, and extended renewed unemployement benefits etc.Kind of takes the incentive away to look for a job…but of course then they can be reclassified as discouraged and no longer counted on the actively looking-for-work-unemployed statistic.So AJ, how’s your winter going up there in MN?

Pecos BankerJanuary 13th, 2010 at 9:29 pm

I’ve pretty much given up on this site. Most of the interesting articles to read are on a pay basis. I had a devil of a time finding these comments. Found them by clicking on the name “Nouriel Roubini”. I spend most of my time reading ZH but do not offer comments there. Pity about this site. I really enjoyed reading the posts of the regular contributors. Somehow I feel that the comments in past infuriated those to whom Roubini has to answer, so they basically shut down the comments section. Perhaps this is just conspiracy thinking, but we’ve gone from hundreds of comments to tens of comments. If anyone has an alternative explanation, I’d like to hear it.

blin d manJanuary 9th, 2010 at 9:14 pm

does darkness itself have any associatedweight? does it free fall in a gravityfield?.or maybe better ….if one has no receptor or neurologicalstructure to experience sensitivity tolight is there any experience of darkness?.and do passing years change anything at all?really..some “vintage” americana. so long ago r. guillianirecently forgot that it even happened, under g.w… what some worry about happening has alreadyhappened but that is always the way, reminds meof my birthday..pss. link to video is no indication of any judgmentregarding masonry or meant to imply guilt to anyparty mentioned. just americana and posted as a reminderfor mr. r. guilliani, ex mayor of n.y. city at the time of09/11/2001. some day the u.s.a. should investigate the facts andevidence of that date. the motive is becoming more and moreobvious with each passing bailout, er, i mean year..when doubt pervades momentous occasion honest investigation ensues,of that i am sure. most would agree and of that i am sure, butthat did not happen in america and of that, i am also sure.also, it is not due to mass stupidity, so something else isafoot, as it were, or is. something that couldn’t happen in america, so lets just move on to the war games, terra fightin’,and bailouts..psss. i will never be able to believe that 4 sheet rock knives /utility blades brought down western civilization, even if you add a couple of commercial airliners. i thought civilization was just bigger than that? and explosive shorts? what is that, some kind of signal to investors? sheesh… and his father a nigerian banker… double sheesh… is that the signal to buy high and sell low? ??? or clean out your shorts before you fly? or clean out your off shore accounts before you get audited? or what? and that guy from ubs, the whistle blower doing time for bringing billionsinto the treasury from client tax cheats, while 4500 of them getdeals involving no time in jail. again, sheesh…the links areall available but i’m tired of posting them. plus. anyone whoreads this already knows all they need to know to go and livein a f…… cave in the mountains. ( again, no offense to the finecave dwellings around the world that make most dwellings madeof wood and such look like rat’s nests. ).” you can f… all of the people some of the timeand you can f… some of the people all of the timebut you can’t f… all of the people all of the time.”.that is the thing that these people have not considered..or maybe it takes 10 years or so for a fungal mat to grow a brain?or maybe fungal mats never grow a brain? or maybe it is thatfungal brain that is the problem, maybe it has a fungus? or isfungal based, rendering it suspect and useless for honest work?.no one chooses to become human as long as the prospect ofthe carrot is hanging there in full view on the string tied tothe stick attached to the collar draped around one’s neck. publicor private..”everybody needs a place to stand,while they work on all their schemes and scams”w.z. “genius”.ps. for people who work in america they have a is “poor”. or “working poor” and recently “working homeless”,obviously a government job that cannot be outsourced is, at thistime, better than homeless, to most people. another word for”work” in america is “unemployed” and homeless. has been going onfor a while outside the f….g fffire sector, so far…. fffff..bailout ka ching. king kong play ping pong, long time…..he is so big he can play all by himself, but it is boring.another sheesh….i think your three fer, no, at least four fer is due to therecent relocation to the mountain cave movement. satellitereception being installed as we speak, as it were, or is.then again there is sheer exhaustion and winter hibernation.per chance to dream……i heard merlin’s wand was made of holly wood? i thoughtthat was fascinatin’/. I–(%/)- hmmm…?

PeterJBJanuary 9th, 2010 at 9:30 pm

wow – and seasons greetings blindman – that was a mouthful. Yes I had to laugh at guillani and his bush comments. What implications indeed? SOLmountain cave – clan of the cave bear = “leadership” but where the horse?darkness is the creator of light or the womb of light; that place in which nothing can be seen until the lights are turned on:-]>hollywood: perhaps we are all avatars? (a very impressive work of art, indeed!)Ho hum

PeterJBJanuary 9th, 2010 at 9:16 pm

Thank you AJ and my best and kindest wishes to you and yours; may your future be bright with happiness and health:Now, speaking of big government and similar to the standard tricks of the government layers in Australia where we really have no government at all, but three prime layers of cash collections – which is just about all that which we know as government cum “leadership” aka cash cannibals and carnivores albeit all for “their” benefit and longevity of office, a sort of biological “privilege” system in advance. It should be of interest that the biological privilege system, that is symbolized and portrayed and represented in fact as well as in strict analogy, by the egg, indicates scientifically as in physics, that the chicken came after the egg – however, in the political system, the chicken comes a priori, prior to the egg; certainly makes a statement doesn’t it?:-]>”Sadly, commuters going to work-the few and proud remaining people who work and generate “GDP”-are getting taxed to death with laws and infraction dogma. It’s all an obvious hat tip to Orwell that those who work have to take care of the bloated state employee salary system.” Maids Up, Citations Down; MTA Woes in San Francisco; Schwarzenegger Proposes “Red Light” Revenue SharingAs I have said for many years, governments, or “leadership” never contribute to growth but always a priori to the constraint of growth, and this folks, is a scientific fact! Think of an 10 tonne anchor hanging around your neck on a 0.5m chain!You can figure the rest out by yourselves.Ho hum

Winston SmithJanuary 9th, 2010 at 9:30 pm

There is a frightening disconnect going down in this country and I can’t help but think that people aren’t going to stand for this. Then again maybe they are as they are too diverted by exhaustion and American Idol and football. I mean 40percent of our kids are living in poverty. Bonuses on an average of almost $600 g’s?! I am trying not to be furious as I can’t control the greed that is taking place before me, but this is outrageous. In tonights NY Times:”The bank bonus season, that annual rite of big money and bigger egos, begins in earnest this week, and it looks as if it will be one of the largest and most controversial blowouts the industry has ever seen.Bank executives are grappling with a question that exasperates, even infuriates, many recession-weary Americans: Just how big should their paydays be? Despite calls for restraint from Washington and a chafed public, resurgent banks are preparing to pay out bonuses that rival those of the boom years. The haul, in cash and stock, will run into many billions of dollars.Goldman Sachs is expected to pay its employees an average of about $595,000 apiece for 2009, one of the most profitable years in its 141-year history. Workers in the investment bank of JPMorgan Chase stand to collect about $463,000 on average.”

The AlarmistJanuary 11th, 2010 at 3:41 am

They ordinarily carve roughly 45% to 50% out of so-called NIBBT (Net Income Before Bonuses and Taxes) and call that the bonus pool. Thanks to the kind support of the taxpayers, they have net income, so they therefore have a bonus pool to carve up. They are even more deserving since their extraordinary efforts resulted in the world economy being saved.Ignore the fact that the spread above record-low yields essentially makes profit a sure thing, especially when coupled with the now almost certain guarantee of the taxpayers. It is still hard work, you know.Face it … You are a real cad if you are to deprive our financial heros of their due!

blin d manJanuary 10th, 2010 at 10:26 am

more disconnects by design and due to lack ofsystemic understanding and self serving, specialinterest perverted short circuits. can you feelthe heat and see the sparks? this thing is goingto start a fire.. zinn, web exclusive, “holy wars”.the tragedy of “war”, it turns the “good guys”into the “bad guys”, invariably. here he has insightinto a universal principle revealing the true natureof armed conflicts, me thinks. attention paid and”valuable” understanding can be gained. not to beignored imo.i see it as the grand short circuit of humanity. war, &finance.all those life affirming, nurturing ( read good ) circuitsbypassed, energy flowing from the heart directly to thegrave. the abomination facilitated with technology andand other ingenuity, individuals necessarily unconsciousof the short circuit, the erasure of life and its meaningfrom a larger perspective. the self becomes reduced / destroyedwith terms like ” bugsplat “. the circuitry of humanity destroyed. shorted out..” we know the price of everything and the value ofnothing.” oscar of “the value of nothing” …. interviewedby g. null on prn , raj patel. 1/7/10.. that be of interest..“Obama Has Kept the Machine Set on Kill”–Journalist and Activist Allan Nairn Reviews Obama’s First Year in Office…..ALLAN NAIRN: Well, the machine. The US spends about half of all—almost half of all the military spending in the entire world, equal to virtually all the other countries combined. More than half of the weapons sold in the world are sold by the United States. The US has more than 700 military bases scattered across dozens of countries. The US is the world’s leading trainer of paramilitaries. The US has a series of courses, from interrogators to generals, that have graduated military people guilty of war crimes and crimes against humanity in dozens upon dozens of countries. The US has a series of covert paramilitary forces of its own that get almost no attention. For example, right now in Iran, there are covert US paramilitaries attacking Iran from within, authorized by secret executive order. This was briefly reported, but it dropped from notice. In addition to that, there are the open attacks, the open bombings and invasions. Just in the recent period, the US has done this to Iran—to, I’m sorry, to Iraq, to Afghanistan, Pakistan, Somalia, Kenya. Currently in the Philippines, there are US troops in action in the south. And you could go on. This is the machine.And then, in addition, there’s the support for a series of what the RAND Corporation itself—you know, RAND is an extension of the Pentagon—called US support for repressive non-democratic governments and for governments that commit aggression. There are about forty of them that the US backs. And I could run through the list. And the point is, Obama has not cut a single—cut off a single one of these repressive regimes. He has not cut off a single one of the terror forces. He has increased the size of the US Army, increased the size of US Special Forces. He has increased the level of overseas arms sales. In fact, the Pentagon, his Pentagon, was recently bragging about it. The same thing happened under the Clinton administration with then-Secretary of Commerce Ron Brown. He has tuned it up. But you could just run down the list of countries where civilians are being killed and tortured with US weapons, with US money, with US intelligence, with US political green lights.ANJALI KAMAT: So, Allan, what would you say is the difference between the preceding eight years under the Bush administration and this past year, as we move forward under Obama?ALLAN NAIRN: Well, in this respect, on matters I was just talking about, there’s no substantive difference. In fact, as far as one can tell, Obama seems to have killed more civilians during his first year than Bush did in his first year, and maybe even than Bush killed in his final year, because not only has Obama kept the machine set on kill, but he had his special project, which is Pakistan and Afghanistan. He used this to get elected. He had to prove himself. He had to go through what the New York Times once called the “presidential initiation rite,” under which each president must, in their words, demonstrate his willingness to shed blood. Obama did that by saying, “I’m going to attack more vigorously Afghanistan and Pakistan.” And he’s brought chaos.I mean, you just saw the report from Afghanistan and Pakistan. He has squeezed the Pakistani military to attack their own tribal and border areas with extensive civilian death and retaliation from the residents of those areas through a series of bombings across the major cities of Pakistan.Likewise in Somalia, Bush backed Ethiopia in an invasion of Somalia, basically an Ethiopian-US invasion of Somalia. Now Obama is pumping in new arms, new weapons, into the midst of the killing and chaos there. Somalis are streaming into Yemen as refugees. The already disastrous level of hunger and starvation is increasing. His body count probably exceeds that of Bush….But even when they’re not targeting civilians, which is probably most of the time, they end up killing massive numbers of civilians. The Pentagon has a word for that, too. They call it “bugsplat.” In the opening days of the invasion of Iraq, they ran computer programs, and they called the program the Bugsplat program, estimating how many civilians they would kill with a given bombing raid. On the opening day, the printouts presented to General Tommy Franks indicated that twenty-two of the projected bombing attacks on Iraq would produce what they defined as heavy bugsplat—that is, more than thirty civilian deaths per raid. Franks said, “Go ahead. We’re doing all twenty-two.” So that adds up to, you know, about 660 anticipated, essentially planned, what in domestic terms would be called criminally negligent homicide, at the least, probably second-degree murder. You might even be able to get it up to first, first-degree. And that, just if—if that was the actual toll, the bugsplat estimate of the toll on the first day, that right there would give you a third of the World Trade Center death toll, just on the first day of the Iraq operation. And, of course, the Iraq operation has gone on. And that’s essentially what’s happening in Afghanistan and Pakistan….

blindhorse / mule? donkey / assJanuary 11th, 2010 at 10:00 am

ps,the machine wastes more energy than any entityin the history of the universe. subjective statement.the machine has no mind! subjective is designed to destroy things and kill’s own statement / stated purpose.the machine needs lubricants and energy. fact.the machine needs enemies and will create them out ofinnocents or out of thin air if need be. fact.the machine has no heart. subjective conclusion.the machine wants / needs to control the planet. subjective conclusion.the machine does not listen to reason, by training and asa matter of security. subjective conclusion.the machine has intelligence but no intellect. opinion vergingon fact.the machine is bigger than king kong. comic book reference.the machine is a contemporary solution to an historic problemand has become the contemporary problem. subjective hypothesis.the machine is the problem that makes the individual appearproblematic? a question.the machine is never responsible for what it does, it just is,like god or matter or energy itself. subjective speculation.the machine will never stop functioning, even when the oil runsout because, as the commercial says, it runs on human energy, too. subjective comment.the machine knows more than individuals can possibly knowbecause in the final analysis all individuals are justbugsplat, so sayith the machine.

Winston SmithJanuary 11th, 2010 at 10:08 pm

I listened to the g null show and wanted to thank the Blind man for posting these links. I thought the interview with the author of “the value of nothing” raj patel should be required in all of our schools and blasted on Fox News and MSnBC. He brings a positive view to a most dire world scene. There are 100’s of millions of people starving! A handful of people are dying every 4 seconds. When people ask what we should be doing with our economy one has not to look too far and see that we should be helping to feed the world. We certainly have the farms for it if we weren’t making bio fuels that are depleting our soils. We should be restoring our coral reefs, cleaning our oceans not making wars and war machines. Want to invest in a strong economy? There is only one way I believe- move from a war/ consumerist centered economy to a world healing economy. And there’s money to be made because there’s a world of hurt out there. Raj patel points out that there is hope in that people are acting locally, it is hopeless to change things on a national scale. the interests are too entrenched, they will not change unless it happens from the bottom up. I highly recommend people listen to this interview.

blind manJanuary 12th, 2010 at 4:23 pm

w,thank you. good ideas. here some more. the thought /idea precedes the perception. certainly for humans. no?. link to prn.. interesting discussion..democracy now and talk back of 1/12/10, wbai archives, also interesting. many others. the darkness must lift. as pjbsay… basic physics..the old gives way to the new, whatever that may be….but the idea precedes the perception, development, construction, arrangement ,,,etc. we live in the expressionof old ideas ( culture ) striving to perpetuate / indoctrinate that basis even as it deflates and fails butsome can see past that to new or old good ideas..starts with good ideas.

ttJanuary 10th, 2010 at 4:13 pm

Barry has a good post on NO JOBS.Look at the fourth graph down. It compares non-farm payroll gains by decade (data to 1939) and shows that in the most recent decades of 80s and 90s there were approximately 20% new jobs added to the economy.But in the 2000s we see a lost decade in terms of US job creation, just 3% more jobs were created.

The AlarmistJanuary 11th, 2010 at 3:43 am

The blurb I heard the other day is that this recession has hurt white middle-aged males the most. Since that is not PC, you no doubt will not hear that in the lame-stream media.

PeterJBJanuary 11th, 2010 at 3:48 pm

Considering prophesy:”Flashback January 21, 2007: The Washington Times nails it with Collapsing Venezuela.If Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez President Obama deliberately intended to sabotage his nation’s economy, he would be hard-pressed to do anything different from what he is now doing to his country.It has been widely reported that Mr. Chavez President Obama has been increasingly taking control of the oil, telecommunications and energy housing, banking, auto, and insurance sectors, as well as the media. What has not been reported is the full extent of the corruption in Venezuela the United States and how this ultimately will destroy the economy.The financial scandal taking place is far bigger than Enron, and may ultimately even exceed the U.N. “oil-for-food” scandal, the biggest financial disgrace of all time.Since 2004, the Venezuelan Central Bank Fed has transferred about $22.5 billion untold $billions to accounts abroad by the Chavez government held by foreign governments, and about $12 billion all of that remains unaccounted for. It has also been reported that the gold reserves have been removed from the Central Bank.While the rest of the world has been moving away from socialism for the last quarter-century for good reason, Venezuela the United States is becoming socialist. We know governmental use of central banks to basically print money to cover expenditures results in rising inflation and eventually monetary meltdown.And, finally, we know that when a state becomes totally corrupt an economic collapse always follows. Mr. Chavez President Obama and his cronies had already been spending far more than they were taking in and you can bet the blood from the innocent Venezuelan people United States citizens will be drained long before those on the take from Mr. Chavez President Obama agree to have their looting stopped.The original Washington Times article was extremely good, but a few minor changes would have made it the most prophetically accurate post the world had ever seen.”Mike “Mish” Shedlockhttp://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.comFor emphasis: “And, finally, we know that when a state becomes totally corrupt an economic collapse always follows.” (basic physics)Ho hum

blindmuleJanuary 11th, 2010 at 8:12 pm

speaking of prophesy and starvation……..” As regards range and accuracy of prediction, Robert Nixon,the fifteenth century plowboy-prophet, is on equal terms withSt. Joan and St. Malachy. And although he did not attain thestatus of saint, he can claim distinction of another kind. Asa person, Robert Nixon presents an enigma which has never beensolved.He seems to have been so stupid that he could be called witless,according to Woodman of Copnal, an old man who knew him well. Hehad not even compensatory good looks; old Woodman described him”a short, squat fellow” with a large head and goggle eyes, whodribbled when he spoke. He was surly, disliking especially children, who called out rude remarks about his appearance as hepassed them. Son of a farmworker, he became a plowboy on FarmerCrowton’s farm at Swanlow, where he seems to have done very littleexcept make a nuisance of himself. He would work only when he felt inclined; whatever anyone said to him, he either did not speak orgrunted or simply answered Yes or No. Neither Farmer Crowton norany of his men could do anything with Robert unless they beat himof docked his food. Food seemed to be the only thing that interested him. He had a phenomenal appetite and capacity for eating; he would think nothing of getting through a whole shoulder of mutton at a meal (if he were allowed to), following it by hunks of bread and cheese.Yet unpromising material though Robert Nixon appeared to be, hewas the vehicle for a remarkable gift of prophesy. One day atSwanlow, he made a prediction about one of Farmer Crowton’s oxenwhich was fulfilled-one of the first times he had been heard tospeak coherently. The incident was told to Mr. Cholmondeley, ofVale Royal house in the forest of Delamere, who, becoming interested in Robert, employed him at his house. Mr. Cholmondeley had hopes, it seems, of improving Robert and educating him. Atleast, he could be taught to read, so Mr. Cholmondeley thought.But book learning of any kind was quite beyond Robert’s powers,as was proved by the failure on the part of local school masterto teach him anything at all. So Robert went back to his plow.One day, dropping his goad, he stood still, looking up at the sky. After a time, some of the other plowmen spoke to him. He took no notice. The overseer told him to get on with his work; when Robert did not obey, he beat him. For an hour Robert stayed without moving in the field; then he picked up his goad and went on with his work as if nothing had happened.When the other plowmen asked him why he had behaved in this way, he answered lucidly, instead of with his customary grunts.” I have seen things I cannot tell you and which man never saw before.” Later, for two hours, he spoke to them. Clearly and without hesitation, he foretold the English Civil War, the manner of Charles I’s death, the restoration of Charles the II, the abdication of King James II, the accession of William of Orange and the way in which he died, the French revolution and the war with France, and subsequent prosperity for England. he predicted when there would be periods of bad weather and scarcity of food. Finally, he said, “I shall be sent for by the king and starvedto death.”His numerous predictions of local events were accurately fulfilled. Luddington Mill was removed by Sir John Crewe, as hehad foretold, Ridley Pool was drained, and so on……..”.pages 99 to 100..’ the saints and the plowboy ‘” They foresaw the future “the fascinating story of 6000 years offulfilled justine glass.for what it is worth.

PeterJBJanuary 12th, 2010 at 3:54 am

And speaking in terms of:”And, finally, we know that when a state becomes totally corrupt an economic collapse always follows.” from Mish extracted above by PeterJB, with the comment “basic physics”, er, really,… perhaps the following clears the air?”I wouldn’t call it fascism exactly, but a political system nominally controlled by an irresponsible, dumbed down electorate who are manipulated by dishonest, cynical, controlled mass media that dispense the propaganda of a corrupt political establishment can hardly be described as democracy either.” — Edward Zehr – (1936-2001) ColumnistHo hum

PeterJBJanuary 12th, 2010 at 6:36 pm

I would like to append this piece of reason here, for the sake of, er, concordance, that is to say, consistency:”Corruption and hypocrisy ought not to be inevitable products of democracy, as they undoubtedly are today” : Mahatma GandhiKeywords: undoubtedlyAvatar: Anybody else notice the public er, not so subtle outrage by the institutional belief abuser agencies of superstition and all things that look like and smell like and taste like cow paddies, that is pinging around the aether? Blue, pagan, animalism, etc., etc., such th’ungs have evoked the tingly death pangs of sensations in those that feel their time has come, those masters of the Universe draped in splendid colours of awe and wielding brass pots of smoking incense; rightly so and not before time, as they are about to enter their ritualized times of “extremis”. Bye!Keywords: evoked (an energetic impulse stimulation that innately drives humanity like and electric cow prod – a natural physical phenomenon).Ho hum

Little SaverJanuary 12th, 2010 at 4:59 am

When are we going to read something on Timothy Geithner’s (and his collaborators) transparency obstructions on this economonitoring blog?Transparency was one of Obama’s promises?