EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

RGE’s Weekly Roundup

Check out all of the RGE analysis and EconoMonitor contributions that were published this past week at roubini.com.

Here are some of the highlights from RGE Analysis:

In a joint study by ICP and RGE, Prajakta Bhide, Christian Menegatti, and Wenbo Zhu use loan-level data to examine the projection of loan loss severity in response to changes in regional home prices.  See U.S. Home Prices and Mortgage Loan Loss Severity.

In light of Angola hosting its first ever OPEC meeting on December  22 and Angola’s foray into the international debt market, Kavitha Cherian, Lee Hudson Teslik and Rachel Ziemba analyze the country’s economic and political profile in Angola Tries Its Luck in Capital Markets.

 

On Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, Nouriel provides his analysis on the recent rise in gold prices, which are only partially justified by fundamentals.  Read Roubini’s Latest Project Syndicate Op-Ed: The Gold Bubble and the Gold Bugs.

Don’t miss Roubini Speech and Interview on the Global Economy and Latin America at the Council of the Americas.

 

On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Rachel Ziemba examines whether a combination of oil demand growth from emerging market economies and geopolitical supply vulnerabilities could boost the oil price and jeopardize the economic recovery.  See RGE’s Wednesday Note – Energy Insecurity in 2010 and Beyond?

In Collateral Damage, Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere discuss the trends of the past decade including the global boom and bust, the rise of emerging markets, and the irreversible forces of globalization.

In China’s Globetrotting Xi, Adam Wolfe considers Beijing’s growing soft power as China’s vice president Xi Jinping travels the world.

 

On the Finance & Markets Monitor, Models & Agents weighs the benefits and risks of granting the Fed the lead role as financial supervisor.  See Ben and his Avatar.

In Is Investment Depressed by an “Anti-Business” Climate? Jeffrey Frankel argues that investment will recover when the economy does, and urges one to look at history to clear up any misperceptions.

In Who Should be Bailed Out? Lucian Bebchuk asserts that in the future governments should not bail out failing financial institutions’ derivative counterparties, even when they provide a safety net to some of these institutions’ creditors.

Also on the Finance & Markets Monitor:

As Financials Fade, S&P500 Loses Momentum by Barry Ritholtz

The Asset Allocation Challenge Springs Eternal by James Picerno

Interesting Paper on Leveraged Buyouts and Private Equity by Claus Vistesen

Interview with Satyajit Das on Derivatives and the Financial Crisis by Satyajit Das

Should Investment Firms Bet Against Their Client? by Barry Ritholtz

 

On the Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Meera Fickling and Arvind Subramanian discuss climate change.  Please read:

Controlling Emissions in the Developing World: A Dissenting View by Meera Fickling

Reconciling Climate Change Goals with the Needs of Developing Countries by Arvind Subramanian

 

On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, John Graham and Kate O’Sullivan discuss the results of their quarterly survey of CFO’s and companies in the U.S., Europe and Asia.  Read Economy Slowly Improving but Risks Posed by Weak Employment and Tight Credit Remain.

In Half-Truths, Lies, and Poverty, Abraham M. George considers some of negative consequences that result from inaccurate reports by those fighting poverty.

In Gravity will Drag the $U.S., Rebecca Wilder examines the rollercoaster of the U.S. dollar and its impact on trade flows.

Also on the Global Macro EconoMonitor:

How Bad Biology Killed the Economy by Mark Thoma

Doug Kass’s 20 Surprises for 2010: Goldman Private, Gold Tumbles, etc. by Paul Kedrosky

 

On the U.S. EconoMonitor, Robert Reich and James Kwak discuss health care, while Edward Harrison considers fiscal policy marred by malinvestment.  Please read:

Slouching Toward Health Care Reform by Robert Reich

Small Steps and Health Care Costs by James Kwak

Moving Away from Stimulus Happy Talk to Focus on Malinvestment by Edward Harrison

Also on the U.S. EconoMonitor:

The 2010 Census: Economic Impact Probably Overrated by Rebecca Wilder

It’s Certainly Not for a Lack of Effort by Simon Johnson

If Wall Street Ran the Airlines… by James Kwak

 

On the Emerging Markets Monitor, Phillip H. de Leon considers the political and economic implications of the newly inaugurated Central Asia-China gas pipeline that links Turkmenistan’s natural gas fields on the Caspian Sea to the Western Chinese border in the Xinjiang province.  See: China Secures Gas Supply from Turkmenistan: Who’s the True Winner?

 

On the Asia EconoMonitor, Yves Smith examines the puzzling phenomenon of buying residences in China and holding them vacant indefinitely.  Read: More Evidence of Froth in China’s Housing Market.

 

On the Latin America EconoMonitor, Javier Guillermo Gomez Pineda asks Whither the Credit and Asset Price Cycle in Latin America?

 

On the Europe EconoMonitor, Marcus Svedberg looks at A New Normal for Eastern Europe, while Edward Hugh analyzes Why Standard & Poor’s are Right to Worry about Spanish Finances.

32 Responses to “RGE’s Weekly Roundup”

GuestDecember 26th, 2009 at 9:19 pm

In consideration that those trying to get us out of this mess, helped create it, consider the thoughts of Steve Keen’s Debtwatch.You engineer’s out there may appreciate the recent interview of Mr. Keen by Eric Tavenier.”There is nothing more dangerous than a bad theoryThe simple reason is: because they are neoclassical economists. You don’t get to be a Central Banker without a degree in economics, and the school of thought that dominates economics today is known as neoclassical economics. Though a lot of what it says appears to be superficially intelligent, almost all of it is intellectual drivel, as I outlined in my book Debunking Economics (which summarised a century of profound critiques of this theory which its practitioners have studiously ignored).Since critiques by economists and mathematicians of this theory have literally filled books, I won’t try to go into all of them here. Just three key neoclassical myths suffice to explain why they do not understand the dynamics of our credit driven society. They believe that:(1) The nominal money supply doesn’t affect real economic output;(2) The private sector is rational while the government sector is not; and(3) That they can model the economy as if it is in equilibrium.The first myth means that they ignore money and debt in their mathematical models: most neoclassical models are in “real” terms and completely omit both money and debt. So since debt doesn’t even turn up in their models, they are unaware of its influence (even though their statistical units do a very good job of recording the actual level of debt).The second myth…”http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/Of course Professor, it would be nice hear your take.hlowe

GuestDecember 27th, 2009 at 3:37 pm

crgordon, you may enjoy these interviews by “Frisby’s Bulls And Bears”Predictions for 2010, Number 3: Mish and Dr BubbPredictions for 2010: Part 2Predictions For 2010: Steve KeenIt’s All About The DollarDr Marc Faberhttp://commoditywatch.podbean.com/hlowe

blindmanDecember 27th, 2009 at 9:54 am

some know no shame as they believe there is nosocial bond or order that places any restriction on theirown greed and lust. in an evolutionary sense “ourinstitutions”, financial, are into a cannibalistic phase.( firm eats it’s own clients, see “should investment firms betagainst their clients?” barry ritholtz )..and bonuses abound at taxpayerexpense! and we debate whether this should be legal? does itconstitute “fair dealing” ? i cannot express a reaction tothis without violating everything decent in my imagination.it inspires a new and more vulgar linguistic development orlineage of profanity yet to be conceived. i will work on this.it is just, beyond. an example of tangential verbally mediatedlobotomy at the highest level, the kind of thing that bringsdown a “civilization”, when words have lost their power, kindness andcompassion have failed and the cannibal standsat the top of the heap and declares itself “leader” and themindless masses follow, lobotomized, into the pit of artlessduplicity. ” what she done, you can’t give it a name. yougot to make it rain, make it rain.” t.w..we should probably do something to get on thecivilization track, hopefully soon before our childrenand grandchildren are eaten alive on the streets inbroad daylight, a practice, ongoing……/ in the works.or is it too late? only for some, the ones who havebeen devoured..again. when asked what he thought of “western civilization”ghandi replied. ” i think it would be a good idea “..ps. how long before surgeons can take out life insuranceon their transplant patients and collect when the knife slips?or do we have that already?

MorbidDecember 28th, 2009 at 6:38 am

Help Is On The Way?Blindman,The following may be a way to help hit the reset button.

Tuberculosis has been detected in the spine of a 4,400-year-old Egyptian mummy. In the 1600s, it was known as the great white plague because it turned patients pale. In later centuries, as it ate through bodies, they called it “consumption.” By 1850, an estimated 25 percent of Europeans and Americans were dying of tuberculosis, often in isolated sanatoriums.In the U.S., drug-resistant infections killed more than 65,000 people last year — more than prostate and breast cancer combined. More than 19,000 people died from a staph infection alone.

blindmanDecember 29th, 2009 at 9:32 am

m,i think i have all these in my system, lurking,waiting for me to become weak and susceptible.the bacteria etc. .. it is really their world,we just live in it.

hloweDecember 28th, 2009 at 12:19 pm

Where’s the deflation?Bail outs just keep coming, keeping house prices artificially high by not allowing failure, sure doesn’t help those of us waiting for the adjustment down. Will the Fed print or will there be debt forgiveness??• Fannie: “Prior to the conservatorship, our business was managed with a strategy to maximize shareholder returns, while fulfilling our mission. However, in this time of economic uncertainty, our conservator [the US government] has directed us to focus primarily on fulfilling our mission of providing liquidity, stability and affordability to the mortgage market and to provide assistance to struggling homeowners to help them remain in their homes.””As a result, we may continue to take a variety of actions designed to address this focus that could adversely affect our economic returns, possibly significantly, such as: increasing our purchase of loans that pose a higher credit risk; reducing our guaranty fees; refraining from foreclosing on seriously delinquent loans; increasing our purchases of loans out of MBS trusts in order to modify them; and modifying loans to extend the maturity, lower the interest rate or defer the amount of principal owed by the borrower.”http://emac.blogs.foxbusiness.com/2009/12/28/fannie-and-freddies-end-run/hlowe

GuestDecember 28th, 2009 at 3:11 pm

I am trying to remember now where it was, and when it was, that it hit me. Was it during my first walk along the Bund in Shanghai in 2005? Was it amid the smog and dust of Chonqing, listening to a local Communist party official describe a vast mound of rubble as the future financial centre of south-west China? That was last year, and somehow it impressed me more than all the synchronised razzamatazz of the Olympic opening ceremony in Beijing. Or was it at Carnegie Hall only last month, as I sat mesmerised by the music of Angel Lam, the dazzlingly gifted young Chinese composer who personifies the Orientalisation of classical music? I think maybe it was only then that I really got the point about this decade, just as it was drawing to a close: that we are living through the end of 500 years of western ascendancy.“Western Ascendancy”: that was the grandiose title of the course I taught at Harvard this past term. The subtitle was even more bombastic: “Mainsprings of Global Power”. The question I wanted to pose was not especially original, but increasingly it seems to be the most interesting question a historian of the modern era can address. Just why, beginning in around 1500, did the less populous and apparently backward west of the Eurasian landmass come to dominate the rest of the world, including the more populous and more sophisticated societies of eastern Eurasia?http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac26eb9a-f30a-11de-a888-00144feab49a.html?nclick_check=1

GuestDecember 28th, 2009 at 6:16 pm

Rest of the article from above:My subsidiary question was this: If we can come up with a good explanation for the west’s past ascendancy, can we then offer a prognosis for its future?Put differently, are we living through the end of the domination of the world by the civilisation that arose in western Europe in the wake of the Renaissance and Reformation – the civilisation that, propelled by the scientific revolution and the Enlightenment, spread across the Atlantic and as far as the Antipodes, finally reaching its apogee in the age of industry and empire?The very fact that I wanted to pose those questions to my students says something about the past 10 years. I first began to teach in the US because an eminent benefactor of New York University’s Stern school of business, Wall Street veteran Henry Kaufman, had asked me why someone interested in the history of money and power did not come to where the money and power actually were. And where else could that be but downtown Manhattan?As the new millennium dawned, the New York Stock Exchange was self-evidently the nodal point of a vast global economic network that was American in design and largely American in ownership.The dotcom boom was ending, to be sure, and a nasty little recession ensured that the Democrats lost the White House just as their pledge to pay off the national debt began to seem almost plausible.But within just eight months of becoming President, George W. Bush was confronted by an event that emphatically underlined the centrality of Manhattan to the western-dominated world. The destruction of the World Trade Center by al-Qaeda terrorists paid New York a hideous compliment: for anyone serious about challenging the American global order, this was target number one.The subsequent events were exhilarating. The Taliban overthrown in Afghanistan. An “axis of evil” branded ripe for “regime change”. Saddam Hussein ousted in Iraq. The Toxic Texan riding high in the polls, on track for re-election. The US economy bouncing back thanks to tax cuts. “Old Europe” – not to mention liberal America – fuming impotently.If Napoleon had been, in Hegel’s phrase, ‘the Zeitgeist on horseback”, then Arnold Schwarzenegger, the action-hero turned governator of California, was the Zeitgeist behind the wheel of a Hummer. Fascinated, I found myself focusing on empire, in particular the lessons of Britain’s empire for America’s.As I reflected on the rise, and probable fall, of America’s empire, it became clear to me that there were three fatal deficits at the heart of American power: a manpower deficit (not enough boots on the ground in Iraq), an attention deficit (not enough public enthusiasm for long-term occupations of conquered countries) and above all a financial deficit (not enough savings relative to investment and not enough taxation relative to public expenditure).Back in 2004 I warned that the US had imperceptibly come to rely on east Asian capital to stabilise its unbalanced current and fiscal accounts. The decline and fall of America’s undeclared empire might therefore be due not to terrorists at the gates nor to the rogue regimes that sponsor them, but to a fiscal crisis at home.The realisation that the yawning US current account deficit was increasingly being financed by Asian central banks, with the Chinese moving into pole position, was, for me at least, the eureka moment of the decade.When, in late 2006, Moritz Schularick and I coined the word “Chimerica” to describe what we saw as the dangerously unsustainable relationship between parsimonious China and profligate America, we had identified one of the keys to the coming global financial crisis.The illusion of American hyperpuissance was shattered not once but twice in the past decade. Nemesis came first in the backstreets of Sadr City and the valleys of Helmand, which revealed not only the limits of American military might but also, more importantly, the naivety of neoconservative visions of a democratic wave in the greater Middle East. And it struck a second time with the escalation of the subprime crisis of 2007 into the credit crunch of 2008 and finally the “great recession” of 2009. After the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the sham verities of the “Washington Consensus” and the “Great Moderation” were consigned forever to oblivion.And what remained? By the end of the decade the western world could only look admiringly at the speed with which the Chinese government had responded to the breathtaking collapse in exports caused by the US credit crunch, a collapse which might have been expected to devastate Asia.While the developed world teetered on the verge of a second Great Depression, China suffered little more than a minor growth slow-down, thanks to a highly effective government stimulus programme and massive credit expansion.It would of course be ingenuous to assume that the next decade will not bring problems for China, too. Running a society of 1.3bn people with the kind of authoritarian planned capitalism hitherto associated with the city-state Singapore (population 4.5m) is fraught with difficulties. But the fact remains that Asia’s latest and biggest industrial revolution scarcely paused to draw breath during the 2007-09 financial crisis.And what a revolution! Compare a tenfold growth of gross domestic product in the space of 26 years with a fourfold increase in the space of 70. The former has been China’s achievement between 1978 and 2004; the latter was Britain’s between 1830 and 1900. Or consider the fact that US GDP was more than eight times that of China’s at the beginning of this decade. Now it is barely four times larger – and if the projections from Jim O’Neill, Goldman Sachs’ chief economist, prove to be correct, China will overtake America as soon as 2027: in less than two decades.What gave the west the edge over the east over the past 500 years? My answer is six “killer apps”: the capitalist enterprise, the scientific method, a legal and political system based on private property rights and individual freedom, traditional imperialism, the consumer society and what Weber probably misnamed the “Protestant” ethic of work and capital accumulation as ends in themselves.Some of those things (numbers one and two) China has clearly replicated. Others it may be in the process of adopting with some “Confucian” modifications (imperialism, consumption and the work ethic). Only number three – the Western way of law and politics – shows little sign of emerging in the one-party state that is the People’s Republic.But does China need dear old democracy to achieve enduring prosperity?The next decade may well answer that question. Then again, it may take another 500 years to be certain that there really is a viable alternative to western ascendancy.The writer is Laurence A Tisch Professor of History at Harvard University, author of The Ascent of Money and a contributing editor of the FThttp://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ac26eb9a-f30a-11de-a888-0­0­1­4­4­f­e­a­b­4­9­a­.­h­t­m­l­?­n­c­l­i­c­k­_­c­h­e­c­k­=­1

PeterJBDecember 28th, 2009 at 3:55 pm

MARCH 09, 2006A Warning to the EastWestern Civilization is in a rapid State of Declineand thereforeImmitate them at your Own Perilhttp://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2006_03_05_archive.htmlHo hum

PeterJBDecember 28th, 2009 at 4:46 pm

Paul Krugman: The first time to my knowledge that he has got something right (but I think that there should be a minus sign in there somewhere):”Let me quote from a speech that Lawrence Summers, then deputy Treasury secretary (and now the Obama administration’s top economist), gave in 1999. “If you ask why the American financial system succeeds,” he said, “at least my reading of the history would be that there is no innovation more important than that of generally accepted accounting principles: it means that every investor gets to see information presented on a comparable basis; that there is discipline on company managements in the way they report and monitor their activities.” And he went on to declare that there is “an ongoing process that really is what makes our capital market work and work as stably as it does.”So here’s what Mr. Summers — and, to be fair, just about everyone in a policy-making position at the time — believed in 1999: America has honest corporate accounting; this lets investors make good decisions, and also forces management to behave responsibly; and the result is a stable, well-functioning financial system.What percentage of all this turned out to be true? Zero.What was truly impressive about the decade past, however, was our unwillingness, as a nation, to learn from our mistakes.”http://www.nytimes.com/2009/12/28/opinion/28krugman.html?_r=1Maybe they should give him another Nobel Prize?Ho hum

GuestDecember 28th, 2009 at 5:48 pm

The bottom left hand portion of the letter “U” is where we are now according to Cramer :o(I’m tired of him being right. He seems to have inside info. A couple weeks ago he adamantly stated shadow inventory would not flood the market. Christmas Eve Geithner gives Fannie and Freddie and delinquent home owners a present.Professor, did you give the all clear yet?hlowe

methinksDecember 28th, 2009 at 11:25 pm

If you haven’t seen it, Robert Reich gives a nice summation of 2009 -and how we got where we are.http://www.robertreich.blogspot.com/“The real locus of the problem was never the financial economy to begin with, and the bailout of Wall Street was a sideshow. The real problem was on Main Street, in the real economy. Before the crash, much of America had fallen deeply into unsustainable debt because it had no other way to maintain its standard of living. That’s because for so many years almost all the gains of economic growth had been going to a relatively small number of people at the top.”

blindmanDecember 29th, 2009 at 12:20 am

defense department, “overseas” investments, and as he saysfinancial or capital predation and cannibalism. it is in thediet and the bacteria that initiate the digestion creatingthe basis for neurological activity or lack there of. you arewhat you eat and are under the influence of the bacteria thatbreak it down.but the wall street bailout is one expensive side show. i’dhate to have to pay to see the main event.?.http://www.garynull.org/wp-content/uploads/2009/12/GaryNullShow122409.mp3

Little SaverDecember 29th, 2009 at 3:45 am

Free market (not) and free lunch (not) and those who have to pay for it (yes, us).Chicago School practitioners of free-market mathematics crow that “there is no such thing as a free lunch,” distracting attention from economic reality by dropping the history of economic thought and economic history itself from the curriculum. The very idea that there is such a thing as a free lunch is deemed heretical. This idea now governs academic departments and monopolizes the most prestigious economic journals, without publication in which it is difficult for junior faculty ever to rise to tenured positions in their universities. The aim is to censor the perception that today’s economy is all about getting a free lunch by obtaining legal privileges, as exemplified by the recent U.S. health care HMOs, the bailouts over banks deemed “too big to fail” and other beneficiaries of government largesse.http://michael-hudson.com/

blindmanDecember 29th, 2009 at 9:18 am

@ .. in all matters.http://verbewarp.blogspot.com/2006_03_05_archive.htmlMarch 09, 2006A Warning to the EastWestern Civilization is in a rapid State of Declineand thereforeImmitate them at your Own PerilThe Bicameral Mind of global humanity is again changing back from a dominant technological oriented ‘conscious mind’ to a more balanced condition of co-operative interaction between the ‘conscious mind’ and the ‘subconscious mind’ or, that is to say, it is reverting to its higher natural state of a balanced Bicameral Mind. Professor Julian Jaynes (The Birth of Consciousness and the Breakdown of the Bicameral Mind) wrote in his staggering opus that around 3,000 years ago theminds of men started to experience and go through a dramatic neurological change that drove them from their homes and cities to venture across vast lands in a frenzied rampage of killing and destruction.The end of that Age is now upon us.It is well known and has been expressed by many great thinkers and writers of note over the ages, that ‘change’ in the state of civilizations of men has come in quantum jumps (or leaps) and it has been noted by more than a just a few that these changes in neurological states in man have also be accompanied by significant or major telluric events, the latter which tends to cause serious damage through earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and other such electric effects.We cannot argue against the fact that during the last 2000 years or so to date, that we have been dominated by the inflicting of death, genocide, wars and destruction upon our own kind globally while at the same time, making vast technological advances. It is posited here that this period of time has been due mainly to our unstable mental state in a broken down or dysfunctional, Bicameral Mind, while stating again without argument, that our dominant mind set throughout this period and still of today was and is our ‘conscious mind’. (Sir Francis Crick:Astonishing Hypothesis).Recent research has found that our scientific capacities and functionalities reside within our ‘subconscious mind’ and that this capacity is rising in men throughout the World today to claim again the “reason” or intellectual accord functionality in humanity of that of the early Egyptian epochs. At least ~ 8000 years of uninterrupted rule.In the United States of America recent research has found appalling educational attainment amongst its students (amongst other similar degraded standards including poverty and health) indicated with much concern (see article by By Lois Romano, Washington Post Staff Writer.December 25, 2005 – A12). The USA could be said to be in a state of frenzied denial as demonstrated by its leadership and one could be forgiven to conclude that what was once the most powerful and dynamic nation on the face of the Earth and the symbol of freedom, is now in a state of rapid decline. The American system of civilization is now rapidly devolving beyond correction and the refusal of its leadership to restructure its social and educational imperatives and to acknowledge its domestic turmoils and social stresses indicated by its own valuationcritiques of its human resource and energies, is hastening this decline.While in the failing and bankrupt economies of Europe, its governments have focused their full attention upon the creation of vast networks of grande Ecole elites. credentialized non-responsive bureaucracies throughout most of its nations particularly in France where commerce, science and government is run to rule in fascist ideologies that respond to political whim rather than intellectual reason d’accord. Leadership of the West is desperately trying to “prop-up” their failed economies with any measure that keeps the status quo for individual agenda. The center will not hold and this strongly infers that the dominant ‘conscious’ mentalities of men of the West have reached their zenith and where power is being centralized in those few elite and their accompanying dysfunctional ‘conscious mind’ mentalities of denial and self-preference or individual agenda.Many influential bodies and individuals have been calling for a global cull to reduce the World population to 1.5 billion of thereabouts which begs the question as to who benefits and who does not? Surely this vastly criminal suggestion from elite leadership represents a total depravity, insanity and desperation of the ‘conscious minds’ involved?The global financial system is now also in an irreversible state of decline dominated by the highly preferred banking systems of debt, hedge funds, unstable derivative instrumentation and the global network of casinos known as stock exchanges.Surely Leadership is in the wrong hands? Surely today’s Leadership has run its full course?Mainstream science is also going (has gone) nowhere constrained and lead by illusionary theoretical imaginative practices which are designed to no more than prop up the theories of unsupported dogma that cannot be demonstrated and consensual self-serving agenda.Technology today thrives while mainstream science today, like its cousins, political leadership and bureaucracy, is mostly dead dogma and interestingly enough, as aforesaid, technology is of the ‘conscious mind’ and thereby quantitative, where science is of the ‘subconscious mind’ and fully qualitative.It is time to turn to ‘commonwealth’ governmental practices entrenched in intellectual creative and adaptive strategies that must be a priori accountable and variable to circumstance and organized in radiant structures of responsibility and intellect rather that of non-meritable,self-serving hierarchies.The major concern now must be a priori focused upon the educational systems of our collective nations and it is here where the warning is most loudly sounded. The East must stop its fascination with and imitation of the West’s educational impositions of torquing the ‘conscious minds’ beyond limit of their youth which can only result, by observation, in producing technical robots and bureaucratic slaves that work to rule without productivity.Leadership of the East must back off and realize that the result of their push to make purely technical mentalities of their youth, that is to say, to focus on only the ‘conscious minds’ while ignoring the functionalities of the ‘sub-conscious minds’ will only result in their national devolvement as is happening in the West. Bureaucracies do not produce; they are an overhead of non-productive labour whereby the focus is non-responsibility and the minimum of participation in the most unproductive manner.The passage of the dominant ‘conscious mind’ has resulted in ‘reductionist’ thinking, that is to say, 2 dimensional superficial thinking that can mainly be described as sterile, analytical, literal, ad hoc, and obedient to merely rote and imitation (Aristotle), whereby the dominant language is linear and granulated by and reinforced with corruptive and destructive counter-productive dialectic sophistry; an illusion of the non-existent. The ‘conscious mind’ is neurologically fast functioning at about 100Mbs but only in a single contextual mode; it is reactionary, lazy, non-predictive and incapable of creative thought. It is also short term memory dependent and constrained to quantitative contexts. It also works in conjunction only with the Sympathetic Mode of the Autonic Nervous System (ANS) of our Central Nervous System (CNS) and therefore favors imposition and destruction in order to dominate and survive, that is to say, it is the material aspect of nature. It is adverse to health, mind, body, environment and civilization where it functions in the dominant state.Whereas the ‘subconscious mind’ is a multi-threading – as similar to parallel processing of our computers, slower than the ‘conscious mind’ (around 10 Mbs) but has full creative capacities and functionalities while being of the radiant Parasympathetic Mode of the ANC which is conducive to reason and accord with our environment and all life.Not only is the ‘subconscious mind’ healthier for us, it is more constructive, predictive, conducive to happiness and fully qualitative. It allows us to visualize both ‘time’ and ‘space’ that is to say, 3dimensionally and therefore is essential for our efforts in science and for the applications of our advanced technologies, social management and common-wealth so as to benefit all mankind. It is of the moral order (non-fashionable) and of social responsibility……divergent comment: “where the train goes slow” t.w. the ideal of productivity is brought into question, the ideal of rapidity too, where the train goes slow. becoming and being, digesting and existing. fasting and breathing on the train that goes slow. thoughts of the intellect that you can “feel”, slow, goes slow, go slow.somehow less is more and then, there, nothing becomes all. and all over.talk about “free lunch” on the train that goes slow. “..stone girlis dancing.”.the gut and its neurology and flora. the intimacy of thatcreative destruction / digestion sending / flooding the”system” cellular with both biochemical, physical, and electricpulses variably phased but synchronized or capable of synchronization. rhythm. conductor. the “orchestra” that goesslow..appendages and organs, non gender related, and the mediation of their energetic neurology onto the stage of consciousness, thefast track, constitute the sub conscious foundation. slowbecause there is actual biochemical productivity being performedcreating new electrical possibilities, potentialities, realitiesthat need to be integrated and cognized or recognized.

blindmanDecember 29th, 2009 at 10:38 am

http://www.alternet.org/politics/144834/bruce_levine_says_americans_are_broken%3A_is_he_right/?page=1.Bruce Levine Says Americans Are Broken: Is He Right?By Les Leopold, AlterNet. Posted December 28, 2009.The disillusioned masses don’t just need more morale, as Levine claims. We also need more truth and more intelligence….Many community organizers did not feel that they or their constituents needed any education about the shape of the entire economy or the role of Wall Street since their organizations were not poised to influence that level of policy. It seemed like a waste of time since the American economy was unlikely to collapse. The 1930s were long gone. (The WTO protests in Seattle seem like a major exception but that massive effort had considerable support from the labor movement, especially the Steelworkers.)Our organizing strategy needs to be enlarged. We need both small victories and we need big picture agendas and struggles. When the economic system nearly collapsed, we didn’t know how to respond, in part because we had ignored those questions for too long. The banking elites certainly knew how to respond; they engineered the largest transfer of wealth since slavery. To focus on small victories right now, I believe, will give bigger and bigger victories to the financial elites.The Tea Party folks got it together in a hurry, but progressives seem at a loss. But that doesn’t have to be a permanent condition and it has nothing to do with abuse syndrome. Rather we have to relearn how to develop broad agendas and campaigns like progressives did to usher in the New Deal. Building an economic agenda with popular resonance won’t come easy. But if we don’t challenge the very fundamentals of Wall Street finance, we will enter what I’m calling the “billionaire bailout society,” where the wealthy get to amass vast riches, gamble to gain even more, and then use the rest of us as a piggy bank to bail them out when they lose. To me, that’s fundamentally abusive.Here’s the rub. I suspect one of the reasons we’re not in motion is that we feel intimidated by the financial elite and their complex financial casinos. We don’t just need more morale. We need more information, more truth, and I intend to do all I can to share what I can with you. We need to build up our economic literacy so that we can duke it out with the big boys.If I’m contributing to your abuse syndrome, I apologize. But I doubt that I am. I have the confidence that as we educate each other we will develop new modes of activism to challenge the beast. In fact, that may be our biggest problem. The old ways of protest don’t seem to fit our new realities, but we don’t yet know how to combine our many new communication tools to make our defiant voices heard. It may take a generation or two, but we’ll find a way, because ultimately we have no choice.The truth may not set us free right away, but it drives us forward. And what else do we really have besides each other and the truth?Let’s drink to that and to Bruce Levine for prodding us forward. Happy New Year!

PeterJBDecember 29th, 2009 at 4:16 pm

Speaking of the role of the Art of “Leadership” in the destruction of society:”It is the same as the right to life, for it is by work that men live. Deny the right to work, and you have cut off the right to life.”The Right to Workby Cecil B. DeMille on December 29, 2009Mises Daily… and, is not this fundamental endeavour also not ‘the’ fundamental of socio-economics? And, as a result, does not society employ management, that is in the form of bureaucratic and political hacks?Why is it that we never, a priori, trust bureaucrats and judges yet with open heart (read: pockets) trust politicians with the lives and well being of our dearest parts (read: our children)?Or, does God only ordain (read: speak to) bankers and Presidents?Ho hum

11b40December 30th, 2009 at 8:26 am

Not to worry, SWK. Freddie & Fannie will soon come to the rescue. With unlimited funds, can principal write downs be far behind?Independent Contractor

hloweDecember 30th, 2009 at 10:57 am

Here in San Diego we have bank owned homes sitting vacant and not for sale, home owners (loosely) over 1+ year without making a payment. Meanwhile the inventory of for sale homes are so small (entry level) that bidding wars have driven up home prices while unsuccessful buyers are frustrated. One example is a home that sold at auction in June for around $250,000 and resold for $514,000 in September. Those of us who sold, only to have the rules changed are the losers, along with the renters who did not play into the bubble.Yes, I am confident that there will be debt reductions for those who should be renting, some because of misfortunes, but many that were ignorant and/or lied. And let’s not forget those who refinanced and spent the money on cars, remodels, vacations…(I recognize Moral Hazard is old news for those us here, and recall the professor saying a year ago, there needs to be across the board debt reduction).As posted above: 2009-12-28 12:19:58″As a result, we may continue to take a variety of actions designed to address this focus that could adversely affect our economic returns, possibly significantly, such as: increasing our purchase of loans that pose a higher credit risk; reducing our guaranty fees; refraining from foreclosing on seriously delinquent loans; increasing our purchases of loans out of MBS trusts in order to modify them; and modifying loans to extend the maturity, lower the interest rate or defer the amount of principal owed by the borrower.”Of course, I see the goals the fed and treasury are after, but I don’t like the new rules!!And of course if they are successful there will be inflation. As I see it, they need to get the homes at least to par with bubble levels, stock market up and cause enough inflation so as to allow for higher interest rates, higher taxes while not crashing home prices. Disclaimer: I did not get a copy of the new rule book.I want a free market, not interference; but our political process will not allow it and those who try to fix past problems, just keep making new larger problems. It’s no longer beneficial for me to understand our problems and move accordingly, those who know nothing will be bailed out! Oh ya, those insiders who know more than I also win.I know, this was a rant.hlowe

11b40December 30th, 2009 at 5:00 pm

Yes, it looks like a little bit of knowledge is a dangerous thing. It seems impossible to win. You do your homework, make a plan, execute, then the government comes along and changes the rules of the game and you are screwed. The first time it happened to me in a big way was with real estate tax issues in the 80’s. The second major hit was 10/31/07 when the Canadian govt changed the rules for Royalty Trusts and the market took a 20% haiurcut overnight. Now this year comes along, and insanity reigns in America – the bailout nation. I am so paranoid, I have no idea what to do, other than raise cash and hunker down, which it seems most small investors are doing. Meanwhile, a huge run up occured and I missed most of it. Down deep inside, we know this economy is in horrible shape and on government life support…and the market acts like it’s 1999 all over again. I can’t help but feel like we are being set up for a huge crash that the insiders will short all the way down. Look how big the Goldman bonuses will be when that happens.Independent Contractor

GuestDecember 30th, 2009 at 9:21 pm

Here’s my problem with your rant it fails to recognize the fundamental truth that banks/Federal reserve are solely responsible for price stability in the economy in general and more so with the value of properties. Human beings are always going to or want to buy homes it fundamental to their survival so when the banks force the values up through the roof for their own short term profits and then when prices come crashing down it’s immoral to force the average Joe to pay for it (it wasn’t their fault no matter how many remodels or cars they bought). The evil to be had is for the banks alone they have a serious responsibility to the tax payers to maintain price stability. The only fair thing to do is to forgive the debt because those debts stemmed from corruption, you can’t force people out of their homes! It’s unfortunate that the conservative types and super financially responsible ones aren’t getting bailed out too but to blame truck drivers and hairdressers is immoral and it misses the point.

kilgoresDecember 31st, 2009 at 4:57 pm

Dr. Roubini has repeatedly argued that the principal balances on distressed mortgages should be crammed down in order to help stabilize the market.SWK

SeanDecember 30th, 2009 at 2:13 pm

Wow! I have not login for monthsss and this site has changed completely.So where are London Bankers and Miss America? Are they still posting comments here or have a new blog? Last I know MA has a new blog on Roubini site, as well as London Bankers.Are they still giving out forecast and estimtes for stock market and various asset classes? Thanks Guys!

PeterJBDecember 30th, 2009 at 5:27 pm

Talking about Debt:As you are all aware, Australia remains a Penal Colony of the UK and accordingly, our wardens that form the governing Authority, blindly obey directives issued by Great Britain while also following the demands of Washington, since George W Bush proclaimed the War on Terrorism and Ben Benanke awoke from his pseudo academic slumber and discovered a flaw in the theory of neoclassic economics which isn’t really a flaw, just an anomaly (read: glitch) that is both convenient and beneficial opportunity (for some).And not to be out done on unproductive lending for perpetuity of office by the elite Clan of the Morons (and all that gut that hangs off it, we have, er, from Steve Keen, Australia’s intrepid Heretic in affairs economic and would be thorn under the genital sack of “leadership” (Those that are to be praised – please roll the eyes):http://www.debtdeflation.com/blogs/It’s Debt, Debt, Debt for Australia!Published in December 29th, 2009 Posted by Cassander in Debtwatch106 CommentsLast weekend’s Sunday Telegraph pointed out a new record for Australia: our ratio of household debt to GDP is now higher than the USA’s.You can bet on the usual retirement book deal for PM KRudd and a beach front unit in Nice for the heads of the relevant bureaucratic offices over that achievement!Now get this for those a bit slow on the uptake this morning:”As of the latest RBA figures, Australian households now owe the equivalent of an entire year’s GDP—3% more than Americans ever owed. We grew our debt pile much faster than Americans did. We are continuing to go deeper into debt, while American households have started to reduce theirs. And in one of the great travesties of our GFC sidestep, the most recent growth in household debt has been deliberately engineered by government policy.”RBA is Australia’s official representative of Benanke’s FedRes; Holy Catholic (centre of the Universe) Centre for superstition and all things faith-based and dogmatic – of all things impositional for those of tribal true-believers.Next thing, the Nobel Peace Prize, king of kings, (all roll yours eyes now) will be declaring war on Australia in the theme of “friend of the USA”.Yes, we get the Debt Prize! Praise Alfred E Neuman. What? Me Worry?Ho hum

PeterJBDecember 30th, 2009 at 6:37 pm

Why the world’s corporates will set up home in the USA: Obviously the USA is THE place to do business as you have no costs, no taxation and when you need some more cash, just pick up the phone and “do lunch” with you Congressman or whoever. Free loans, free running costs, free overheads and free profits for all of the Clan of the Moron.”Instead, it supports the biggest banks. It authorizes Federal Reserve banks to provide as much as $4 trillion in emergency funding the next time Wall Street crashes. So much for “no-more-bailouts” talk. That is more than twice what the Fed pumped into markets this time around. The size of the fund makes the bribes in the Senate’s health-care bill look minuscule.”http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=a48c8UpUMxKQSend your Congressman some love; you never know he may send you a trillion or two.And there is always the soup kitchen er, cash counter at the back of the FedRes if you can’t pay for the lunch… and or don’t want to be seen…Ho hum