Roubini Global Economics – Weekly Roundup
Check out all the great contributions that were published during the past week on RGE’s Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Finance & Markets Monitor, Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, Global Macro EconoMonitor, U.S. EconoMonitor, Emerging Markets Monitor, Asia EconoMonitor, Latin America EconoMonitor and Europe EconoMonitor.
On Nouriel Roubini’s Global EconoMonitor, Senator Chris Dodd questions Ben Bernanke at his confirmation hearings and raises Nouriel’s concern over asset bubbles being inflated from carry trades. Please see Senator Chris Dodd Raises Roubini Predictions at Bernanke Confirmation Hearings.
We congratulate Nouriel – Nouriel Roubini Ranked #4 in Foreign Policy’s List of Top 100 Global Thinkers.
On the RGE Analyst’s EconoMonitor, Rachel Ziemba examines the lessons learned for the global economy and the financial markets following the fallout from the debts of Dubai Inc. See Wednesday Note – After Dubai.
In What’s on the Agenda at China’s Central Economic Work Conference? Adam Wolfe takes a look at the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference in China and suggests policy continuity is likely to dominate the meeting. Expect minor changes for the property sector and SOEs, but consumption incentives and infrastructure spending look to continue.
In University Bonds: Are the Ties that Bind Too Long? Melissa Fabros examines the boon in municipal bond issues by universities. The bond market has welcomed the supply, but universities may be making commitments to bondholders that supersede obligations to their campus community.
In Prompt Corrective Action for All is Unnecessary and Unworkable, Joseph Mason questions the beneficial effects of grafting prompt corrective action thresholds onto financial institutions outside the traditional application to commercial banks.
In Understanding Custom OTC Derivatives , Charles Davi demystifies bespoke trades.
On the Peterson Institute for International Economics Monitor, C. Fred Bergsten points out the shortcomings of the international economic system that was created at the end of the Second World War and which no longer reflects the distribution of economic weight among nations. Recognizing these issues and the new global order, Bergsten constructs A Blueprint for Global Leadership in the 21st Century.
On the Global Macro EconoMonitor, Dubai and its aftermath sparked discussion:
In Does Dubai Matter? Ask Ireland, Simon Johnson notes that the direct effects so far seem small, but the European Union’s treatment of Ireland might be influenced.
In Total Eclipse at the Heart of Dubai’s World, Edward Hugh discusses Dubai’s problematic growth model and whether there will be contagion.
In The Bust in Dubai and Exogenous Shocks, Edward Harrison asserts that the Dubai World events underline the unpredictability of exogenous shocks, and he expresses concern over the potential crisis situations that are still lurking in the background.
Also see On the Sovereign Debt Crisis and the Debt Servicing Cost Mentality, where Harrison says the sooner we abandon a debt servicing cost mentality, the more likely we are to face up to the challenge of the sovereign debt problem, which he sees as critical.
Also on the Global Macro EconoMonitor:
Historical Rhymes by James Picerno
The Doha Trade Round is Worth Fighting For by Otaviano Canuto
On the U.S. EconoMonitor, Robert Reich reports that rising unemployment is the main reason that one out of four homeowners is now under water, while Wall Street is booming again. See The Housing Crisis and Wall Street Shame.
In We Don’t Know How Black Friday Sales Were Yet, Barry Ritholtz continues to encourage the scrutiny of misleading headlines and data presentations.
On the Emerging Markets Monitor, Heiko Hesse examines the co-movement of the U.S. dollar with a number of key financial asset prices in recent years. Read Asset Price Co-Movements and the Dollar Carry Trade.
On the Asia EconoMonitor, Michael Pettis reports on the tug-of-war that is playing out in China between the industrial and exporting sectors along with provincial and local leaders who want to see a continuation of the financial policies, versus the macro and financial specialists who are worried about the growing imbalances and their impacts on the financial sector – imbalances that appear to be worsening. Pettis points out the important debate revolving around financial sector reform, which most believe is the key to the healthy development of the Chinese economy, but he believes that neither the distorted interest rates nor weak bank governance are being addressed. Don’t miss Repairing China’s Financial System.
On the Europe EconoMonitor, Edward Harrison argues that Quantitative Easing is Not the Cure to What Ails Europe.
In Two Bank Speeches and a New Job, David Smith reports on UK quantitative easing and the appointment of Willem Buiter as chief economist of Citi.
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