U.S. Real GDP Growth: Should We Really Get Excited?
After a free-fall of output in the last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009, second derivatives of U.S. economic activity have turned positive between Q2 and Q3 of 2009. That was a clear indication of a significant slowdown in the pace of contraction and the first step toward positive growth (and therefore positive first derivatives of economic activity, which in the end are what really matter). An aggressive and coordinated policy response put a floor to the free fall of output and pulled the global economy back to positive growth.
As reported in our latest RGE Global Economic Outlook (Q4 and Beyond – available here for paid clients), RGE expects a strong second half of the year in 2009. We forecasted real U.S. economic growth to come in at 3% in Q3 2009. We expect growth to be a bit weaker in the fourth quarter, at 2.5%.
Today’s GDP report surprised on the upside, revealing a 3.5% growth rate after consensus forecasted a 3.2% rate; yesterday, Goldman Sachs cut their estimates ahead of the report from 3.0% to 2.7% in wake of a lower-than-expected durable goods report.
Even if the report displayed growth just slightly above expectations, markets rallied. Both the DJIA and S&P 500 closed the day up over 200 points. It is a bit puzzling why markets went up when the report was almost in line with what was expected by consensus. Market psychology is complicated, but could this be more of a sign of high uncertainty? It almost feels like the markets took a deep breath.
Some Details of the Report
Inventories contributed to 1% of this strong performance. This is smaller than anticipated and might slow down significantly when private demand shrugs off the support coming from policy measures. The only real quasi-surprise came from residential investments, which snapped back and displayed a 23% annualized growth rate in the quarter (after contracting at an average annual rate of 20% since 2006). This rebound accounts for the 0.5% difference between our prediction and the actual reported growth. This is not entirely a surprise. The policy incentives set in place to revive the housing sector have produced positive effects; homebuilding activity, as a consequence, has stabilized. Yet housing starts are still moving sideways, shy of the 600,000 per year mark (but above the 480,000 bottom of April 2009), and completions are still falling. This implies that a portion of the residential investment improvement was due to spending related to home improvement, which is perhaps the only surprise here. So, we are back to the U.S. consumer.
The full piece is available only to RGE paid subscribers and is available here. It includes an analysis on the outlook for the U.S. consumer and overall economic performance.
54 Responses to “U.S. Real GDP Growth: Should We Really Get Excited?”
.esrevinu derorrim a ni tsriF
FIRST, finally!Writing “tsriF” was a big ERROR dear Comrade!”Thanks for your cooperation” (brillant quote The 5th Element).
“.” First sideway and backward.
But that’s exactly why you’re the last.Contrary last is first!Mis besos
This “3,4%” sounds like the last Nobel Prize!LOL….
Here read Mish’s Market Cheers Over Ugly GDP Report A little different perspective on the GDP numbers.
I am 100% behind Mike Shedlock on this one. GDP would have been less than 2% without the Cash For Clunkers program. This particular GDP figure was bought and paid for with Gov’t money.But of particular concern was the fact that disposable personal income DROPPED. The market reaction to today’s “optimistic GDP” numbers was rubbish. Furthermore – the people doing the market fixing are well aware of it.PeteCA
Short covering. Lets see how the guys who are long act. Personally, I believe we heading lower over the next 2 months. A lot lower, as economic numbers revert back to pre-govt largesse days. It is not going to be a pretty sight.
I beleive the GDP figures will be lower in q4 as effects of policty measures fade and there is no improvement in employment fiqures
The increase in the GDP is good news, but lets keep this in perspective. Most, if not all of the growth in Current Dollar GDP is due to government spending and programs. In Q1 2008, GDP was $14,373.9B. It dropped from there to a low of $14,151.2B last quarter. Now it rose to $14,301.5B, a rise of 4.3 percent, or $150.3 billion in dollar terms. During the period from March 2008 until now, the US Treasury has paid or loaned $397B through TARP alone. This does not include actions from the FED, which are not subject to the public. Add in tax credits for first time homebuyers ($10 Billion), or cash-for-clunkers ($3 Billion). So for every $1 increase in GDP in the past year an a half, the government has spent more than $2.77 that we know about.
Correction, PeteCA … it was bought and paid for out of our pockets. We ‘consumed’ whether we wanted to or not, and the vast majority of us didn’t get any direct benefit or enjoyment of that ‘consumption.’BTW, real total GDP is still below its spiked high-water mark at Q2 2008, as well as below every real GDP level from Q4 2008 and backwards. This ‘recovery’ is little more than the second-derivative of the trend going positive for one quarter.Real GDP09-Q3 13,014.009-Q2 12,901.509-Q1 12,925.408-Q4 13,141.908-Q3 13,324.608-Q2 13,415.3 (H)08-Q1 13,366.907-Q4 13,391.207-Q3 13,321.1It gets even more interesting when you look at the various components, especially investment and government spending. You can look up the details, suffice it to say that investment went off the cliff at the beginning of 2009 because firms (i.e. employers) in the real economy don’t know what to expect, and a large part of that is no doubt the product of an activist agenda to change America.How’s that Hopey-Changey stuff working out for you, America?
A rather long article but the jist is that banks in general are in much worse shape than most people think and that their (and our) crisis is a long way from being over.Regardless of what the stock market or the gubbermint is saying.Even experts have a hard time getting a handle on how bad losses might get as the commercial real estate market implodes.
“I believe we heading lower over the next 2 months. A lot lower, as economic numbers revert back to pre-govt largesse days”Wolfcould you please elaborate little more for laymen like me to grasp the sense.
There will be 2 things in play: economic numbers and liquidity.The first is likely to lag significantly. The government is already nearing breaking point on the deficit and whatever they did in Q3 will come back to haunt them in Q4 and 10Q1. The “cash-for-clunkers” bacally brought future demand forward, which implies consumption that would have occurred in Q4 and 10Q1 have already taken place in Q3. Think about the impact on GDP. The same goes for housing credit, though enough analsis have gone into it such that once again, it is bringing forward what would have occurred later (see Calculated Risk and Naked Capitalism on this). The idea of the big push was to spark a comsumption boom but guess what: unemployment still heading higher, debt deliquency is increasing, credit to consumers have been cut, corporate investment still declining, CRE is about to blow up.. etc etc. IE all the stimulus in Q3 ended in naught because the underlying economic situation of comsumer overleverage and over capacity has not been addressed. It is akin to putting a small bandage over a gapping bleeding wound. It can staunch the blood loss for a short period of time but it won’t heal it. In this case, the bandage is massive government stimulus. And there is a limit to that. Expect far worse economic numbers than consensus.On liquidity, the Federal Reserve has ended the UST buying program. Will it be restarted at a later stage? Asset prices have been massive supported because of this action. The federal reserve is using the excess reserves of the banks deposited with them to purchase UST and Agencies to make liquidity available. But guess what? Because of the overleverage situation of the consumer and the excess capacity in production, these funds flow straight into financial assets (hence the ridiculous rally in stocks over the last 7 months). With both agency and UST purchasing programs ending, it is likely that the ponzi market (which needs ever higher levels of liquidity to head higher) is likely to collapse. Think about it. Imagine you are an investor and you hope that you can sell higher because of higher liquidity. Now if you know that the liquidity is not forthcoming, how will you react? Clearly you would sell now to the greater fool. Every long will be thinking the same thing.We are approaching a point where we can see that all the efforts of the government to avert this depression has been for naught. By wasting resources on bank bailouts, and auto bailouts and housing bailouts, the government has run out of bullets to tackle the real problem: the overleveraged consumer and inflated asset prices. What can we look forward to? If I am an American with savings, the first thing I would do is get whatever savings I have to another currency. There are 2 paths facing the US: a hyperinflationary depression, or a normal deflationary depression. Both does not auger well for wealth in the country. The former is definitely the more dangerous and destructive event. But the lack of political will and common sense will drive the US straight into that. And god help us all when that happens.
thank you for your valaueable insights.
hehehei think he’s doing a thesis for his Phd/Masteryou should charge him you know…lolanyway thanks for the insight
I’m worried they will keep printing and borrowing until surplus countries stop buying UST.
Mortgage rates have already ticked up past 5%. Get ready, folks.Thanks, Wolf, for the observations.
Here’s my contrarian outlook. Why would it be in the best interest of TPTB to allow a major correction in the markets coming into the Christmas shopping season? Retailers generate 50% of their entire sales during this season, and tanking stock markets would devastate sales. If primary dealers aren’t having to support the UST, where will they invest? I expect the markets to go up once this correction is over but after Christmas all bets are off.
That’s not contrarian, that is mainstream thinking that has been in play since last March ie Govt supported markets.If I was invested since the lows, I would be decidedly more nervous this weekend with that big impulse down having played out. Looks a lot like the smart money just left the party.
Is it smart money or forced-selling? I’ll go with the latter. Coming into the Christmas season I’d rather be heavy in cash than short.
I’m not getting excited, at least not by the GDP report.
im excited emmerich’s 2012 is about to come out 🙂
So if in USA (or is it only in California) we have this situation that sales tax receipts are down a lot while retail sales are down just a little…Perhaps this is because of following factors:-the recession a considerably heavier in USA than in other industrialized countries-U.S. retail prices are considerably lower than prices in other industrialized countries-a lot of the sales receipts is for sales over the internet
how about the state and the fed are not sycing up on thier lies with all the data…. lowers tax receipts equals lower demand, supply, gdp, jobs, car sales, house sales, everything…BTW – when you buy $109.00 of Chineses made crap at a Best Buy for instance, you pay 10.00 in sales tax out here… Talk about hurt…buy at 21,000 car pay 2,000 in sales taxbuy a 32,000 car pay 3000.00 in sales taxCalifornia is a fiscal nightmare and its economy is in total free fall and it will drag the rest of the US with it…
Official disclosure of extraterrestrial life is imminenthttp://www.examiner.com/x-2383-Honolulu-Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m10d21-Official-disclosure-of-extraterrestrial-life-is-imminent
For real? Am I missing something here? Why?To distract everyone from everything else that’s going on?Yet another crisis to facilitate more reduction in freedoms?
OMG, It’s a cookbook!
Thank you son fo the paul! This is more fun than economics, but if you are right, we on this blog will soon be analyzing the economic implications of our visitors from Zeta Reticulae. Here’s another website that was linked to the examiner article.http://www.examiner.com/x-2383-Honolulu-Exopolitics-Examiner~y2009m9d29-Italian-professor-to-reveal-evidence-of-extraterrestrials-among-usIt turns out that many of the extraterrestials have features much like our own and have been living among us, disguised-like, since time immemorial (see the Bible and other ancient sources such as the Upanishads). Some of them may have been Communists during the 1950’s. In the past there were giant ETs 40 feet tall. They may have left skeletons, but those have been sequestered away by governments in order not to alarm the world’s populations. Even their human contacts have their memories psychologically or surgically altered by various defence departments so that reseachers will have reason to dismiss their testimony. You know, I’ve been wondering about Obama lately…Obama? Where’s Obama?
I wonder if the ETs will solve the financial and economic crises or just go to work for Goldman Sachs now that they’re giving record bonuses?!
You might learn that GS really has been staffed with ET’s all along. That would kind of explain their superior analytical and trading acumen as well as their seeming ability to control our leadership with no visible strings or wires (mind control?).I need a new conspiracy to buy into, and this one sounds so much more enjoyable than trying to blame it all on GS and Soros.Thank you son fo paul.
Why people keep saying this is artificial growth? Sure a large part is due to public policies but does that mean is artificial? No, jobs saved and businesses that keep running are for real. I wonder It isn’t great news that we are getting surprisngly good results from public spending?Sure, it would be much better if this was market driven growth, but hey! havent you herd about a the gratest economic collpase since 1929?Seems to me that some ppl cant ever be happy about anything.Cheer up! we are much closer to full recovery than we though we would be just 3 months ago.
r,i think the problem is we got to where we arewith certain “plans”, models,..a paradigm.large imbalances in resource allocation andunsustainable production and consumption resultingin unhealthy structures and people. driven bygovernment or market seems secondary to thenature and intelligence of the systemic functioning.many means of transferring wealth from saversand investors to fraudsters have been identified.and now…non of these identified problems have beencorrected, only allowed to proliferate dueto bailouts. imbalances will not correctuntil failure is recognized. like war, itwon’t stop until we re-cognize the innatewrongness of it and stop it.then we can feel good and cheer up!.ps. question above, “where is obama”?answer here, solemnly saluting war dead.the use of the word solemn makes everythingo.k.? no? no.http://www.nytimes.com/2009/10/30/us/30obama.html?_r=1&ref=us
OK, I’ll bite.Jobs Saved = 30k (let’s humor them by using their number)Stimulus $$$ = $900B (give or take a few tens)Cost per job = $30MOK, so I know that the new guy sitting in a call center to tell people how to get a coupon for their new digital converter box (this was one of the many great jobs created by stimulus money) is not getting the full $30M. Maybe the muckety-mucks who started up the call center pocketed the extra $29.960M per job … must be a Halliburton caper. Or did that money go to the unions directly? Hmmm. Inquiring minds want to know.Yeah, I know, you’ve all seen several totally different sets of numbers here and elsewhere. my only retort is, “Lies, damnable lies, and statistics!”BTW, here are the nominal GDP components for comparison:Personal (Per) (Ann)2009-Q3 9265.1 0.8% 3.35%2009-Q2 9189.0 -0.2% -0.87%2009-Q1 9209.2 0.2% 0.61%2008-Q4 9195.3 -0.8% -3.09%2008-Q3 9267.7 -0.9% -3.52%2008-Q2 9351.0 0.0% 0.06%2008-Q1 9349.6 -0.1% -0.60%2007-Q4 9363.6 0.3% 1.21%2007-Q3 9335.6Govt (Per) (Ann)2009-Q3 2958.0 1.0% 3.96%2009-Q2 2929.4 1.8% 7.19%2009-Q1 2879.0 -0.9% -3.65%2008-Q4 2905.9 -1.2% -4.74%2008-Q3 2941.4 2.2% 9.24%2008-Q2 2877.1 2.4% 10.15%2008-Q1 2808.4 2.2% 9.04%2007-Q4 2748.3 1.8% 7.21%2007-Q3Invest (Per) (Ann)2009-Q3 1579.4 1.1% 4.66%2009-Q2 1561.5 -7.6% -27.10%2009-Q1 1689.9 -16.4% -51.22%2008-Q4 2022.1 -5.6% -20.68%2008-Q3 2142.7 -1.0% -3.99%2008-Q2 2164.6 -2.3% -8.76%2008-Q1 2214.8 -2.6% -9.84%2007-Q4 2272.9 -1.7% -6.58%2007-Q3 2311.9Actually, I’m surprised personal consumption is holding on so well even when you back out the distortions from Cash-for-Clunkers and Domiciles-for-Dupes, but old habits do die hard, don’t they?That invest column you see above is really Investments and Inventories. It’s kind of chicken and egg … can you have a recovery without investment and inventories? Inventories are typically viewed as a leading indicator, and yes, the total figure appears to have turned upwards in the most recent quarter, but it barely makes a dent in the recent trend. It will be interesting to see how Q4 plays out.It strikes me as a bit premature to call this a recovery, especially by the NBER standards, and TPTB know this, but they need to distract us for a few minutes with some good news perhaps.Speaking of distraction, nice photo op.
About Personal Consumption: I can’t tell you how many people I have met who are in debt up to their eyeballs, can barely pay their rent, yet, somehow always need to go shopping and out to eat. They live paycheck to paycheck and on credit which they have no intention of ever paying off. When things get really bad, they simply stop paying rent and move on to the next place. They illustrate a true ADDICTION to spending and probably represent a much greater percent of the U.S. population than most of us realize.
Honey, there are far too many of us who are one paycheck away from disaster, whether it’s of our own doing or the fact that our wages haven’t budged in 30 years.
RL,The problem is debt. Debt that is impossible to repay.Ever hear of Blind Faith?We have surpassed Zero Hour but rather than cutting expenses and tightening our belts and getting back to the real work of value added productive endeavors we just go out and start to dilute our currency.Why? Because there is only one school of economics taught in this country and one set of business organizational design and that is around more and more debt.When people are trained to either follow orders or trained in a discipline, like a religion, FEW question. Faith is easier than thought. It is a human nature and a downfall. Mob rule and religion and patriotism are all a part of having faith. Academian discipline is mostly just another form of faith. Even new scientific discoveries are disbelieved at first until the evidence is overwhelming. In economics, when only one faith is taught, there is little disagreement.I think that MOST of the government and most of the Banksters actually believe in the discipline that they have been taught. Most are trained to not think for themselves and to follow the rules. Whistle blowers are shunned and ostracized. Contrarians and real risk managers are disposed of. We have a culture of Positive Thinking. It is in our nature. Government use to set limits on this kind of overly optimistic crazy risk taking but during Clinton and then with Bush, all restraints were removed.Our universities only teach ONE branch of economic theory. Under which the economy can be controlled by monetary policy. Under which, debt is good as it allows ALL assets to be *used* or devalued. Under the NEW bastardized modified Keynesian Economic theory, savings are destroyed by forcing all savings to be leveraged against rising asset values. Risk is non existent by turning it into a commodity to be sold. Nothing is really about production in the NEW Keynesian Theory that most all of today’s economists preach. So in reality, there is really nothing except betting on future trends and off shoring production to those who are still willing to work.. After all, no one has to work under the New Keynesian Economic System. And those who don’t play the game are marginalized and frowned upon and eventually forced into poverty and servitude.This is the model of American Capitalism we currently have. Under the terms of the New Keynesian Economic Model, you are right, growth by debt is good and great news. In the real world there are limits to the amount of debt because it has to be serviced. When those who are responsible for servicing the debt are over burdened with expenses, in the real world, they start defaulting on their debt obligations. No additional amount of debt, spent on additional consumption can solve this long term. So when a government relies on the solution of more and more debt over and over for decades, there comes a point where the carrying capacity of this debt burden is exceeded. The result is deflation and debt revulsion. When you can only create new debt by bribing the debtors with cash for clunkers or cash for foreclosures this should be a sign to everyone that we have exceeded a climax for debt..But those who are in charge believe in a system and beliefs are hard to change. This is all they and maybe you know so the gobbermint will continue down this path until overwhelming evidence, probably in the form of a depression, will cause them to lose faith.
In a simplified version, suppose a bubble in the stock market is created. Its fair-valuation should be 10000 but it goes to 15000. The people who hold these stocks feel 5000 richer and they spend those 5000 (finance it). There is growth when this happens, but after awhile the bubble collapses, the market bottoms out and returns to this fair vaulation. Now people have already spent 5000 of their 10000, so their equity is 5000 (10000 in stocks and 5000 they owe). Another bubble is created, the market goes to 15000…people feel they are worth 10000 and they spend 5000…growth returns, but once this bubble collapses, people have nothing left. In other words, every bubble in the short-term is a medium-term loss to society, as nothing has actually been gained. Liquidity as a driver of growth is illusory, the holee is dug deeper each time. Actual growth would have happened, if after the first collapse of the bubble, people would have realized that they needed to spend less, save more, thereby that saved money would have ended up with a bussiness which would have produced something, outpacing the interest on the money….and that growth would driven prosperity. In other words, that bussiness would have produced something that the consumer wants.The problem is that, no-one really wants GM cars, its a bankrupt company, so the US govt saves it, pays the consumer to buy it, and the company improves its balance sheet. In other words, all this capital that the goverment has spent is on cars that long-term no-one “freely” wants. It is a great loss to the economy, as rather than an unproductive resource in the medium-term, that capital could have gone to something productive, which would have brought growth and jobs. There are two ways out of it once the govt is hell-bent on saving this unproductive resource:1) The economy doesn’t reach “potential” growth for a long, long time as these failed bussiness abound, which are unproductive and on the tether…in other words, no jobs…2) An increasing inclination towards socialism, where the govt dictates “free” choice. The govt does this by aligning the consumer’s choice with that same company in order to make it productive. For this, it could mean subsidizing those cars or taxing, say, Honda or Toyota. Those are two ways in which the govt can align consumer choice with that of the “greater good of the community”. In essence, this malaise becomes a viscious cycle and more tampering of the free choice is required to keep these unproductive resources productive. This, in theory, could be the last nail in the coffin for lassez-fair economics.
“Actual growth would have happened, if after the first collapse of the bubble, people would have realized that they needed to spend less, save more, thereby that saved money would have ended up with a bussiness which would have produced something, outpacing the interest on the money….and that growth would driven prosperity. In other words, that bussiness would have produced something that the consumer wants.”I should add that since the consumer isn’t demanding as much anymore, thus the only solution would have been this extra produce going to foreign consumers, exports…hence a structural change
somethin happenin in Ukraine..unknown virus,deadly flu… check it outQuarantined some district, maybe announcement of National Emergencywill post a link soon
Speaking of Pig/Bird Flu Hysteria LatelyDid you hear that 1000 have died in America in 2009 from the Pig Flu? LOLIn 2005, 50,000 died from the normal flu and pig flu wasn’t even an issue….also, I had the real swine flu in the early 70s, nasty stuff; 103 degree fever and it kept you in bed with a plethora of changing symptoms for a month.They now say if the school kids kid this new Pig Cold you can come back to school in a week….sounds like mild flu or a cold.I think they dreamed the whole pig flu hysteria up to distract us from the depression economy.
Sorry to remind you all but I said this several months ago.
I think the ending comment about the volume of home improvement expenditures is a interesting point to explore. Does this tell us something about where consumers see relative value in investing their depleted capital? Or it this a reflection of continuing uncertainty and the need to keep the home ready to sell? Or is this related to consumers buying ‘bargains’ that now require repair of some deferred maintenance? Perhaps this is worth looking at.
I find the Q# GDP number merely reflecting a technical rebound. An important piece of information that might escape attention is that USD 20 billion decline in PDI. There are two basic reasons for the decline. Earlier, while wage and salaries were declining because of layoff, the transfers were increasing. Additionally the incidence of tax was lower becuase of the breaks. The Q3 result is important for a few reasons. This time the transfers declined. That was because more people from the 15 to 26 week group moved to 27 week plus group than were added to that group. In all, the number declined by 510,000. Added to that was the withdrawal of the tax breaks that prompted increased consumption in the earlier quarters in conjunction with the cash for clunker scheme and the credit for home purchase. With cash for clunker also gone and housing credit set to expire in November, things do not look good.My views are also available at http://kunalsthoughts.weebly.com/blog.htmlViews are welcome
Eyes are slowly opening…”Based on historical trend analysis by Amherst Securities, 6.94 million homes that are already delinquent will be liquidated, which is more than a one-year supply of distressed sales poised to hit the market sometime in 2010 and 2011. During the first quarter of 2005, that figure was only 1.27 million.”http://atlanta.bizjournals.com/atlanta/stories/2009/10/26/daily102.html
Speaking of the coming Dark Age:Apparently Ron Paul’s bill to audit the FedRes is dead through the rotten offices of the “pimps” of Congress -refer to Naked Capitalism – and thereby guaranteeing the appointment of the new Pope, Saint Bernard the Moron, to be quickly followed by Timmy the Terrible.Obviously, they know not what they do, and in particular, the Effects of the Causes that they have put into action, with their names on the package.Karma baby; it’s pure karma.Enjoy the celebrations of the “recovery”. LOLHo hum
And, also talking about that belief that those that you voted for, actually represented your interests: Hahhttp://theinternationalforecaster.com/International_Forecaster_Weekly/Good_Banks_Fed_Toxic_Waste_And_Turned_Into_ZombiesEvery move your (our) trusted and empowered “leadership” makes, has made, will make things far, far worse, er, for you and better for them (or so they believe) where the result is an increasing acceleration of the greater and rapidly growing “WORSITY” (i just developed this term).This “leadership” rabble just have no idea of that which they do: It’s Karma baby; just pure dynamic karma. SOL / LOL Insanity laughs the loudest.Ho hum
Speaking of karma, the result of the work of “pimps” er, “leadership”, Debt and more Debt and what it is going to do for ————-> YOU, the return of Gold as the preferred currency, which infers, implies, translates to, a strong motion of ‘no faith’ in ‘erectiled’ “leadership” and ‘give us reality or we will hang you’ sic, and all of things of trends with integrity:http://suddendebt.blogspot.com/2009/10/more-personal-look-at-debt.htmlhttp://www.marketskeptics.com/2009/10/gold-market-reaching-breaking-point.htmlComment: Now if you were a few among over 1 trillion and were telling the trillion to buy Gold and Silver, would you dare do a Benanke, and pull the rug out from under the bullion price? Answer: No!Oh, I almost forgot to mention collapsing banks…http://jessescrossroadscafe.blogspot.com/2009/10/nine-more-banks-fail-with-major-cit-on.htmlWell doesn’t all this good news just give you warms and tinglies all over… LOLDid anyone mention the collapsed / collapsing; going, going and damned near gone state of commercial real estate prices?Ho hum
For the next twelve months, real GDP will grow by 1% according to my model, which would have outperformed every single of the 50 or economists polled by the Wall Street Journal in the past few years. See http://raphaelkahan.blogspot.com/2009/11/gdp-forecast-update.html
F*ckin’ remarkable things here. I am very glad to see your article. Thanks a lot and i’m looking forward to contact you. Will you kindly drop me a e-mail?