EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Archive for January, 2009

  • Bloomberg: Roubini Predicts More Global Gloom After Vindication at Davos

    From Bloomberg:

    At the World Economic Forum two years ago, Nouriel Roubini warned that record profits and bonuses were obscuring a “hard landing” to come. “I really disagree,” countered Jacob Frenkel, the American International Group Inc. vice chairman and former Israeli central banker.

    No more. “Roubini was intellectually courageous, and he called the shots correctly,” says Frenkel, whose AIG survives only on the basis of more than $100 billion of government loans. “He gained credibility, and he deserves it.”

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  • A proposal to prevent wholesale financial failure

    From the FT:

    The worst financial crisis since the Great Depression has highlighted the risks from the collapse of systemically important financial institutions. Huge bail-outs were undertaken based on a fear that the collapse of such institutions would cause havoc, with collateral damage to the real economy. Examples include Bear Stearns, Fannie, Freddie, AIG, Citi­group, the insurance of money market funds and new US Federal Reserve programmes for banks and broker-dealers. Allowing Lehman Brothers to collapse had such severe systemic effects that the global financial system went into cardiac arrest and is still dealing with the aftermath.

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  • Interviews with Bloomberg Radio and TV: Roubini Worried About Risk of a `Near Depression’

    Bloomberg (Jan 28, 2009): Roubini Worried About Risk of a ‘Near Depression’ (click here for audio)

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  • Global crisis politics – A Davos debate with Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer

    From Reuters:
    As governments grapple with the global crisis, politics has taken on central importance in determining the course of the world economy — and political risk is more significant than ever.
    Two leading experts on the financial crisis and its political dimensions — Nouriel Roubini and Ian Bremmer — gave exclusive answers this week to Reuters questions on the key risks for 2009 and beyond, and the countries to watch.Roubini is professor at the Stern School, New York University and chairman of economic forecasting consultancy RGE Monitor. He is widely credited as one of the few leading economists to forecast the onset of the crisis and its implications. Bremmer is president of political risk consultancy Eurasia group, and co-author of the forthcoming book “”The Fat Tail: The Power of Political Knowledge for Strategic Investing”

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  • Davos Coverage: Latest Roubini Interviews On CNBC

    CNBC (1/28/2009): Mountains of Doom (click for Video) davos2_250.jpg

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  • Latest Roubini Interview With Bloomberg On The Global Slowdown and US Financial Losses

    Bloomberg (1/27, 2009): Roubini Sees Negative Growth Remaining Through 2009 (click for video)

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  • Interview on the U.S., the Global Economy and Turkey

    From Global Leaders:

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    Ipek Cem’s guest this week is economist Nouriel Roubini, otherwise known as Dr. Doom for his pessimistic views on the global economic crisis. In this candid interview, Roubini will illuminate on the state of the U.S., European and emerging market economies as well as offer advice on better management of the crisis.

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  • Turkey’s Troubles and Tremors

    The interview below – published in the Turkish newspaper Hurriyet – presents my views on the Turkish economy expressed during a recent visit to Turkey.

    I would characterize the strengths and vulnerabilities/risks of Turkey as follows:

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  • Is the U.K. an Iceland 2? No but there are serious financing risks ahead. Also: BBC News TV and Radio Interviews.

    I am in London for a few days and I was recently interviewed by BBC News TV and Radio about the state of the U.S., U.K. and global economy (links to these interviews are below in this piece). While in London I was repeatedly asked by media and financial sector folks whether the UK was an Iceland 2, i.e. whether it would end up having an insolvent government and country. The statements this week the by famed investor Jim Rogers – that the UK was essentially kaput and that investors should dump UK assets and the pound sterling – were widely reported here in the UK and caused a stir at the time when the economy was officially declared in a recession, when the pound is falling, when most UK banks look as insolvent as their US counterparts and when some people are starting to wonder whether the UK may need to go and beg the IMF for a bailout.  Indeed most UK banks will be formally or informally nationalized with a significant fiscal cost of their bailout at the time when the fiscal deficit will surge because of a severe recession.

    So what is the risk that the UK will be Iceland 2? Let us discuss next this issue in more detail:

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  • Expect the World Economy to Suffer Through 2009

    Some optimistic experts are now saying that though this will be a turbulent year for global markets, the worst of the financial crisis is now behind us. Would it were so. We believe that 2009 will be tougher than many anticipate.

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