EconoMonitor

Nouriel Roubini's Global EconoMonitor

Archive for November, 2006

  • Latest Data Confirm Sharp US Slowdown with Economy Contracting to 0% Growth in Q4…and Recession by Early 2007

    The latest macro data this week confirm the sharp US economic slowdown that I have been predicting and they point to a 0% GDP growth in Q4: – New homes sales fell sharply and the excess supply of new homes is increasing; existing homes sales stabilized for the first time in 8 months (but such […]

    More ›

  • Expect Fourth Quarter U.S. GDP Growth to Be 0%

    After correctly forecasting Q2 and Q3 growth I have been arguing for a while that the U.S. economic slowdown will worsen in Q4 and 2007 and lead to a recession by, at the latest, Q2 of 2007. Professional forecasters – who overestimated by a wide margin growth for Q2 and Q3 – most recently deluded […]

    More ›

  • Gloomy Retailers in the US, UK and Japan

    Christmas and the holiday season may not be so cheerful for retailers in some major economies. In the UK Reuters reports that Retailers face worst Christmas in 25 yrs: Retailers may face their worst Christmas in a quarter of a century as warm weather and hikes in fuel bills and interest rates cause shoppers to pinch pennies, […]

    More ›

  • Recession Watch: A Few More Data Points and Analyses

    Here are some news and analyses from the Thanksgiving weekend. – Wal-Mart Same-Store Sales Down 0.1% in November: Wal-Mart may be the canary in the coal mine for the US consumer. – Recession Risk Rising above 50% according to the Fed Yield Curve Model as discussed in a new study by the Federal Reserve of San Francisco – […]

    More ›

  • Turkey-LessThanksgiving in Turkey

    I have spent a turkey-less Thanksgiving in Istanbul: the World Economic Forum is holding its first Turkish summit here and I am one of the many speakers in a rich and interesting  program. Of course issues related to the negotiation of the EU accession of Turkey have wide prominence in the discussions here. The economy and financial markets have recovered […]

    More ›

  • Black Friday or Consumer Black Eye Friday?

    The “good” news headlines today are: U.S. consumer sentiment ends weaker in November US jobless claims jump to 321,000 in latest week U.S. mortgage applications decrease last week-MBA ABC/WashPost US Consumer Comfort Index slips to zero White House cuts economic growth forecast Consumers less confident; jobless claims increasing and labor markets softening; housing indicators showing […]

    More ›

  • Almost a third of Americans plan to spend less on the holidays this year…

    Reuters reports today on the ongoing retrenchment of consumption. The spillover from housing, high oil prices and higher Fed Funds rates is now starting to bite the consumer in a serious way. The alleged recovery of consumption is now becoming less likely by the day… Some consumers plan leaner holidays: study by Lisa Lambert WASHINGTON […]

    More ›

  • Housing Free Fall Turning into Meltdown…2007 Recession Ahead

    For the last few weeks and months I have been writing dozens of detailed notes and blogs (see my latest here) rebutting the utter nonsense that has been spewed – based on little or no data – on the alleged bottoming out of the housing recession. Even Alan Greenspan – the allegedly careful reader of  […]

    More ›

  • Philly Fed Report Improving? Not Really Once You Read the Details…

    The important November Philly Fed report on manufacturing activity is out and the headline figure is much better than last month (+5.1 rather than -0.7) and in line with market expectations. But if you carefully read the report and its components, the actual picture from this report is much worse than the headline and much worse than […]

    More ›

  • The Icelandic Krona Heading South Again: Beginning of a New Unwinding of Carry Trades?

    The WSJ reports today: Iceland’s krona is again slipping, and some emerging-market currencies are sliding along with it. The krona is down 3.8% against the dollar since Monday after a ratings agency reaffirmed its negative outlook on Iceland’s currency, sparking memories of the krona’s 7% two-day drop in February. The dollar stood at 70.34 kronur […]

    More ›