Archive for April, 2005
David Altig (“unofficial” representative of the Fed in blogsphere) reports and comments today on Chairman Greenspan’s and other US officials call for a rapid Chinese currency revaluation and concludes (flattering that my views would be given such prominence):
“I guess they are not listening to Nouriel Roubini“
He is referring to my recent blog where I argued that the US administration was playing with fire (“Biting the hand that feeds one is folly” in the even stronger Martin Wolf words) in asking for a Chinese revaluation without a corresponding parallel fiscal adjustment in the US, as such unilateral Chinese action may trigger a hard landing driven by much higher US interest rates.
Is the US Really Serious or Masochist About Demanding a Revaluation of the Chinese Currency? Playing with Fire and the Risk of a Market Crash
The weekend news from the IMF and G7 meetings was that the US has lost its patience with China and is requesting a rapid abandonment by China of the fixed exchange rate peg of its currency. Some of the headlines were:
Such US views, G7 Communique’ and press headlines then lead to the fateful question: is the US really serious about demanding that China revalue its currency or is the US outright clueless and masochistic?
The new Roubini Global Economics (RGE) Monitor web site has been launched today (www.rgemonitor.com). Most of you have been using my Global Macro Web Site for years now. I have put together a great team of editors, economists and technical folks who have developed and designed a new web site with a wide range of new and useful features. The Roubini Global Macro Site was already ranked as the #1 Web Site in Economics in the world by the Economist Magazine in 1999 when it had only 10% of the its current content. Since then, the site has grown leaps and bounds over the years, but it remained constrained in terms of content, look, design and navigation. Now we are launching a new site – RGE Monitor – that is new and significantly improved relative to the old site both in terms of content and features. The new site is still in Beta version; so your comments and feedback and suggestions will be most welcome.
Massive Capital Losses on Forex Reserves: Is a $300 Billion Loss Spare Change?…Finally, the Message is Being Heard…
For months and months now (at least since last August in our unsutainable US current account paper), Brad Setser and I have been warning about the potential and actual capital losses for foreign central banks from their rapid accumulation of dollar foreign exchange reserves (see here and here and here and here and here and here and here and here) .