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Great Leap Forward

The Biggest Commodity Bubble of All Time: Response to Critics

Ok, my short piece on the commodities bubble unleashed a flurry of comments—especially over at Naked Capitalism and Pragmatic Capitalist—but also a few here on the GLF. There were a lot of nice comments but also quite a few negative ones. In particular, several claimed I don’t know what I’m talking about.

First, in a short blog intended for a general audience you have to simplify—maybe oversimplify. Second, I did provide a link to my 57 page piece over at Levy:

http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb_96.pdf

Of course, one cannot expect critics to actually take the time to carefully look at an argument before attacking! Especially those at Naked Capitalism! (By contrast, let me say that Pragmatic Capitalist has –mostly—very nice and well-informed readers. And let me add that I love Yves Smith and her choice of pieces to run!)

Third, some interpreted my citation to Jeremy Grantham’s data as a claim that he agrees with my analysis. Not at all! He thinks we are in a new paradigm, running out of supplies, and hence 2-3 standard deviations away from “normal” is the new normal. I disagree with that, as does Frank Veneroso. That was the purpose of my piece, after all. Some also thought that I claimed that commodities prices follow a normal distribution. Again, no. That was Grantham and Veneroso, talking about the previous 100 years. For the past 10 we’ve got the biggest black swan and fattest tail you’ve ever seen. Grantham’s argument is that there is indeed a bubble, but prices will not revert back—and 2-3 standard deviations should now be expected because of the financialization of commodities. Frank and I agree on the financialization, but believe there will be a huge collapse.

Finally, some asked why would a commodities collapse matter—especially if they are only 5% of a pension’s portfolio. Suppliers get hurt—go bankrupt. Financial institutions cannot absorb a 5% loss—they’ve been hit by a series of whammies. A similar story can be told about equities—also a huge bubble. Collapsing commodities prices will affect general expectations and a run on equities could occur. We are already heading into a downturn and a financial crisis is beginning to be priced into decisions. Commodities prices have started falling—right on cue.

The next few weeks will be very interesting.

I am pasting three things below. First some excerpts from my long Levy Brief—since critics don’t have the time or patience to read the whole thing, they can look at these relevant passages. Then some excellent commentary from the Pragmatic Capitalist. And finally an op-ed from Senator Bernie Sanders.

Sorry this is going to get wonky. If you want, skip the wonky stuff and go right to the Senator’s op-ed. He’s mostly right. And he seems to be just about the only honest voice in Washington.


EXCERPTS

1. From http://www.levyinstitute.org/pubs/ppb_96.pdf

We will begin with an analysis of three explanations for the explosion of commodity prices in recent years. While these are sometimes presented as rivals, I will argue that simply because one explanation is valid, the others are not necessarily incorrect. Indeed, there are synergies at work, such that the forces driving prices higher reinforce one another. We will first look at the typical explanation provided by economists: it is all a simple matter of supply and demand. Supplies are naturally constrained, while demand has been climbing rapidly. A nod is usually given in the direction of the booming economies of India and China, along with the warning that any attempt to regulate or supervise financial and commodity markets will just make things worse. All that can be done is to encourage the supply side by, for example, opening up the Arctic to more resource exploitation. The market will then efficiently allocate resources among competing wants. The second story involves market manipulation by commodity producers and traders. Indeed, in recent weeks the Justice Department has hinted at wide-ranging investigations, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has announced actions taken against traders who conspired to raise oil prices. As we know, there is a long history of price manipulation in the metals market (readers will recall the Hunt brothers’ attempt to corner the silver market), and the volumes on these markets are small enough that it is possible to hide an inventory sufficient to force prices up (a point even financial columnist Paul Krugman admits, although he prefers the supply and demand story).

Finally, the most popular explanation in the nation’s capital today is that financial speculation in commodity futures markets is the real culprit. Both the Senate and the House have held hearings into this issue, with impassioned testimony presented on both sides. So far, most of the discussion has centered around oil prices, with airlines, truckers, and other users of fuel blaming speculators, while financial market representatives (as well as most economists) reject these claims as naïve. However, the boom in commodity prices is broad-based, so any analysis must go beyond oil. I will argue that all three explanations are plausible, and the identified mechanisms, mutually reinforcing. However, it appears quite likely that the rise of investments in commodity indexes—a particular kind of speculation that has been called “index speculation”—is the most important cause.

Further, commodities merely represent the latest asset class identified by money manager capitalism as ripe for financialization. On the one hand, this means that the problem is mostly human made. Rising energy and food prices do not result, for the most part, from any “natural” shortages. It would thus appear relatively easy to reverse price trends. On the other hand, it means that the problem is systemic—it results from the operation of the type of capitalism we have inherited. Only fundamental changes to the structure of our economic system can break the cycle of boom and bust, and halt the continual search for new asset classes. It won’t be easy, but it isn’t impossible…..

There are three main types of participants in commodity futures markets: hedgers, traditional speculators, and index speculators. The allocation of a portion of the portfolio to commodity futures in order to diversify risks is undertaken by the index speculator. These are typically hedge funds, pension funds, university endowments, life insurance companies, sovereign wealth funds, and banks. Most importantly, index speculators only take long positions— it is a buy-and-hold strategy. To simplify allocation, managed money typically buys one of the commodity futures indexes—hence the term “index speculator.” The biggest are Standard & Poor’s (S&P) GSCI and the Dow Jones–AIG Commodity Index (DJ-AIGCI). If index prices rise, they earn returns. Indeed, because commodity futures contracts do not pay any yield, the only possible source of return is an increase in the price of the contracts. For this reason, the purchase of a commodity futures index is fundamentally a speculative activity. Prior to the 1990s, the “prudent investor” rule prohibited pension plans from buying commodity futures contracts.

It was the collapse of the equities market in 2000 and the discovery that the performance of commodities was not correlated with equities performance that led to a belief that futures contracts could be used to reduce portfolio risk. This is what allowed Goldman Sachs as well as other indexers to successfully push commodity futures as a new asset class for prudent investors.

“Hedgers” are those with a direct interest in the physical commodities themselves. They use futures markets to reduce or eliminate losses due to unforeseen movements in commodity prices. Sellers of commodities take short positions (agreeing to deliver the commodities on the future date); buyers take long positions (agreeing to take physical delivery on the contract expiration date). The CFTC includes hedgers in its “commercial” category. However, as discussed below, the CFTC also includes swap dealers in the commercial category, on the argument that at least some of these swaps are directly related to hedging commodity price risk. The traditional speculator facilitates hedging by taking the other side of the trade with hedgers; in other words, by taking the price risk that hedgers do not want. Traditional speculators are said to provide liquidity by increasing the volume of transactions.

The CFTC classifies such speculators as “noncommercial,” since they have no direct interest in the physical commodities. Finally, index speculators pursue a buy-and-hold strategy, using futures contracts as a portfolio diversification tool. These are said to “consume liquidity” because they take only long positions (acting solely as buyers of contracts). Further, these are the only market players that are insensitive to price—they allocate a percentage of their portfolios to each commodity regardless of price.

Index speculators can be included in the commercial category (even though they never take physical delivery) because they operate in the swaps market—which, as mentioned above, is counted as commercial activity. Masters and White argue that the commodity futures market is the single market that brings together participants in the physicals market and speculators in financial derivatives tied to the physicals….

However, comparing the volume and price of futures contracts purchased and the available supply of the physical commodities might appear to be a comparison of apples and oranges. After all, the pension fund that buys futures contracts is not actually going to take delivery of the oil. What is important is that once a fund has decided to allocate, say, 5 percent of its investments to commodity futures, it stays in the commodities. As the total portfolio grows, the fund continues to increase its holdings of commodity futures indexes in order to hit its allocation target.

As this strategy caught on, huge volumes of money flowed into the indexes, and thus into the commodity futures markets. In 2004, there was a total of about $50 billion in the indexes, growing to above $100 billion in 2006 and to above $300 billion in July 2008. In the first 52 trading days of 2008, $55 billion of managed money from pension funds, university endowments, banks, and sovereign wealth funds poured into commodity futures markets pursuing the buy-and-hold strategy (Source: Mike Masters). The picture seems clear: the match between the flow of managed money into futures markets and the spot price of commodities is remarkable— higher money inflows lead to higher prices. However, as any economist would warn, correlation never proves causation. And, indeed, the causation must go at least both ways: rising prices encourage more inflows, and more inflows generate higher prices. But even with that caveat, the evidence appears at least superficially quite strong, and worthy of a call on Washington to do something about this speculatively driven run-up in commodity prices.

Again, the economist would urge caution. Futures markets play two essential roles. The first is to enable buyers and sellers to hedge price risk. A farmer can contract to deliver wheat at harvest at a locked-in price, secure in the knowledge that, should prices fall before that date, the farmer will receive the contracted price. At the same time, a commercial bakery that wants to buy wheat at harvest can use a futures contract to hedge against the possibility that prices will rise. The problem is that the number of offers by farmers to sell at harvest will tend to exceed the number of bids by those who want to contract for delivery at harvest, for a variety of reasons. This results in a “bid-ask spread,” the difference between the price buyers are willing to pay for future wheat and the price at which sellers are willing to sell future wheat. An intermediary—or, a traditional speculator— can step in to lower the spread, essentially making a bet on whether prices are likely to rise (closer to the ask price) or to fall (toward the bid price). This role can be played by local traders and day traders, who go “long” by agreeing to take delivery of wheat on the contracted date (on the expectation of selling the physical-delivery contracts to the end users of the grain at a higher price than they paid for the contracts). In this manner, speculators lower the spread, and are said to “provide liquidity” to the market since they reduce costs. Such behavior is a common and necessary feature of all markets that have forward-looking contracts. The fear is that, if government intervenes to constrain such speculation, it will reduce the “liquidity” that makes futures markets operate more efficiently: bid-ask spreads will widen, market costs will be higher and fewer futures contracts will be completed, and buyers and sellers of commodities will not be able to hedge price risk as desired. Thus, government should not constrain speculation.

The second role played by futures markets is said to be “price discovery.” Commodities production is often local, while final consumption is more geographically dispersed. For example, wheat is farmed in several distinct rural regions in the United States, with the ultimate consumers of wheat more than a thousand miles away. Farmers might sell to local grain elevator owners, who act as intermediaries. Neither the farmer nor the grain elevator owner has a lot of information about the price that the grain might ultimately fetch when sold to the food processing industry. However, unlike the local market for the physical commodity, the commodity futures market is national, and even international. Futures prices are readily available and reflect real-time supply and demand. Thus, local physical commodity markets have come to rely on futures markets as the primary source of price information on the national and international markets. There is then an adjustment that is made to reflect local conditions—much as the Kelly Blue Book adjusts used car values to reflect local market conditions by zip code. The use of commodity futures markets has eliminated the sometimes large differences between prices in various regional spot markets that existed prior to the 1980s (Masters). Now, as the CFTC describes it, “In many physical commodities (especially agricultural commodities), cash market participants base spot and forward prices on the futures prices that are ‘discovered’ in the competitive, open auction market of a futures exchange” (quoted in Masters). Describing oil pricing, Platts (the biggest pricing service for the energy industry) writes, “In the spot market, therefore, negotiations for physical oils will typically use NYMEX as a reference point,with bids/offers and deals expressed as a differential to the futures price.Using these differentials, Platts makes daily and in some cases intraday assessments of the price for various physical grades of crude oil, which may be referenced in other spot, term or derivatives deals” (Platts 2007). Ironically, even the S&P GSCI and the DJ-AIGCI “spot” price commodity indexes are actually “based predominantly upon the prices of the nearest-to-expiration futures contracts for their respective set of commodities” (Masters and White.

Finally, Masters emphasizes the point: “In the present system, price changes for key agricultural and energy commodities originate in the futures markets and then are transmitted directly to the spot markets.” This is not what is usually taught in economics textbooks. According to traditional theory, “fundamentals” determine spot prices through the forces of supply and demand (as discussed above). Futures prices are then equal to spot prices plus the costs of carry, less convenience yield. The costs of carry include warehousing fees and forgone interest on money that is tied up in the contract; the convenience yield includes income that could be earned by using the commodity until the contract date. Normally, if supply and demand for future delivery are in balance, then the futures price should exceed the spot price because carrying costs are greater than convenience yields. A contango exists in this case: the futures price is higher than the spot price, with contracts priced higher the farther out the expiration date. However, following John Maynard Keynes’s seminal contributions to our textbook understanding of finance, this is not the case in most commodity markets, since commodity producers seeking to secure the price at which they will be able to sell their output tend to outnumber buyers seeking to lock in the future price at which they will purchase. Thus, the supply of futures contracts offered by commercial hedgers will exceed the demand, leading to futures prices that are below cash prices—what Keynes called the “natural backwardation” of commodity futures markets.

It is usually the case that, when there is a shortage in supply or an excess speculative demand, this is first evidenced in the spot market, driving cash prices above futures prices. This can occur if there has been an attempt to “corner” the market by buying up the physical supplies, so that those who have sold futures must purchase at an excessive price to obtain the physical commodity (this is what happened in the Hunt brothers’ attempt to corner silver); it can also occur if there is a belief that there will be supply shortages and users seek to hoard supplies (as occurs in most famines). Here, the increasing spot price creates a backwardation that feeds into the futures price. Indeed, virtually all the prior experiences of commodity booms have been characterized by this configuration. However, in the current price run-up, the opposite has been the case, as futures typically have traded above spot, suggesting dominance of the market by speculative demand. For anyone seeking to buy the physical commodity, there is always the choice between buying in the spot cash market and buying a future that is at maturity and taking delivery. This means that no one would ever pay more than the current spot price for a maturing futures contract, since they both provide the same thing: spot delivery of the physical commodity. This is called the “convergence” of futures to spot prices. This “no arbitrage” condition has been used by many to claim that it is the spot price that determines the futures price, since the latter converges to the former. But it is easy to see that this conclusion is unwarranted, as the futures price converges to the spot price only upon maturity of the contract. During the three-month life of the contract, the futures price is free to vary with market conditions, as does the spot price. At maturity, it may be higher or lower than at the origination of the contract, yet still satisfy convergence.

Further, each month, there will be a new futures contract, and many speculators make spread trades that involve selling a nearer-term futures contract and buying one for a longer term. In addition, as discussed above, index funds that do not want to take delivery of their maturing contracts will roll over their positions, selling the near-maturity contract and buying (usually a larger amount of) the next maturity, or a longer one. This will mean that, as older contracts mature, younger futures contracts will have come into existence with higher prices, and those who have sold contracts will see that they could have waited to sell at a higher price. The expectation of continually rising futures prices thus creates an incentive to hold physical supplies off the spot market. Those who are receiving physical supplies have an incentive to roll them over into futures contracts with a later maturity date, both acting to drive up spot prices in the wake of rising futures prices. This tends to create a price series for forward futures contracts that resembles the yield curve on bonds, and with rising futures prices, this curve has a positive slope associated with a contango. Thus, one test of the impact of futures speculation on current prices has been the existence of a positively sloped futures curve. Results of statistical tests have been inconclusive, but this is not surprising given the fact that the available data consists only of the reports provided to the CFTC—which, as noted above, does not include trading on either ICE or proprietary (over-the-counter) electronic systems. Nonetheless, most prior commodity price booms have been characterized by backwardation, while the present boom has been dominated by contango. This is not proof of speculation, but it is certainly consistent with the result that would be expected in a market dominated by flows of managed money from index speculators.

Summary: Let us review the claim that index speculators have driven the spot price of commodities to historic levels. Commodities markets deviate substantially from the perfectly competitive model, with substantial evidence that prices are administered rather than set by fundamental forces of supply and demand. In many cases, spot prices are determined directly by the price of futures; in others, they are determined by expectations for future spot prices, which are generated by commodity futures prices (with an adjustment to reflect local market conditions—a markup or markdown over the prices quoted on near-date futures contracts). Futures prices, in turn, are influenced by a variety of forces, including attempts by buyers and sellers to hedge price risk, by traditional speculators to go short or long as they make guesses about price movements, and by index speculators diversifying portfolios into a new asset class: commodities. It is no coincidence that futures prices soared over the past four years, as huge sums of managed money—from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, hedge funds, university endowments, and banks (mostly European)—flowed into futures markets. This reinforced other factors that had been driving up prices, including rapid growth in China and India as well as some supply constraints and inventory manipulation. Government policies, including export restrictions and U.S. biofuel incentives, also played a role. These policy choices were themselves prodded by rising commodity prices, even as they contributed to rising prices. A perfect storm was created, one in which almost every participant’s interest lay in continued price gains.


2.
Commentary from http://pragcap.com/the-biggest-bubble-of-all-time

    • Nils

As long as the contract rolls forth and the futures curve is in contango those with the actual inventories of the commodities can to hold off on their selling of actual commodities and just keep selling/rolling futures. Futures losses are offset by the inventory and they can lock in a better price on the next contract.

The hedgers and deep pockets have a huge advantage in not being leveraged as heavily (or at all). How many of those long commodity futures are financially and logistically able to take delivery? Gold and Silver are especially crowded with weak hands, you somehow seldomly hear shorts complaining about COMEX margin hikes, the common conspiracy theory is that JP Morgan and COMEX are manipulating the price down…

      • Dan Jiddish

Hi Nils:

What’s the step by step in this process? (I’m trying to visualize each transaction)

A) Oil producer sells future contract to pension fund. Producer locks in a better price than the current price (due to contango) and the Pension Fund wants to keep speculating. To the oil producer is this like writing a covered call?

B) Oil prices go up due to speculation

C) I assume the pension fund then sells back the contract to the producer? The Pension Fund doesn’t want to store oil?

D) Rinse and repeat? Producer keeps the more valuable oil?

        • Nils

It’s kind of like a covered call, but delivery on futures is mandatory if you don’t unwind your position. On a short call you can get assigned or not, on a long call you can choose to exercise or not. If you hold a short futures contract you are obligated to deliver if you hold it to the delivery date. On a long contract you have to take delivery. Larger players usually have some other options to offset the trade as well.

In our simple example we have an oil company selling a futures contract on Oil, while being able to supply that oil. As a commercial hedger they usually get better deals on margin as well. On the other side we have a pension fund with the only intention of speculating buying that contract. Now when the delivery date approaches the oil company has two options: Keeping the short contract and delivering the product or buying back the contract while keeping their inventory or just selling it at the spot.

The Pension fund can take delivery if they have the cash to pay but usually they wouldn’t want to deal with that. They can also sell their contract and buy the next one, suppose we
have the same two parties dealing again they could just reverse the trade and start the same trade for the next delivery month. The pension fund will usually realize a small loss because of contango. The oil producer lost money on the short contract and has a small gain on the next short contract. They also have a gain on their inventory (or future production capacity).

The consumer, who can’t or doesn’t know how to hedge, curses them out at the gas pump.

This trade works for as long as there is no serious disruption to demand (for the real good and the paper). At one point some players will want to get out of the trade and book their gains. The shorts can pretty much force their hand because they don’t care if they roll or deliver for as long as they can book gains on their inventory or sales, the longs rush to the exit which will make prices plummet. This of course might drive the inefficient producers out of the market, after all a mine or oilfield has extraction costs.

Of course the real workings are a lot more complicated because there are exotic instruments in play, ETFs, diverse hedging strategies over the counter contracts and probably a lot else. Other than futures and options, the smaller players can usually only play ETFs which are based on futures or swap contracts. Again an advantage for the large
players if they are crafty (also an opportunity to blow up spectacularly)…

          • SS

So Nils,

How does this all lead to a speculative bubble? Is someone hoarding physical commodities or are the spot prices just being driven higher than they should be by the speculators?

      • DanH

This whole thing doesn’t even require inventory hoarding. China is taking care of this all on their own. The new demand from China is perfectly filling the new slot for the Wall Street investment scam to continue. The key is understanding how the spot price follows the futures price when the traders run around chasing prices.

What Wall Street has created though is one huge macro trade where everything has a near 1:1 correlation. So it’s not just equities that rally, but everything. And when equities collapse and the risk off trade goes off the commodity markets crater. This is impacting real demand in real markets.

It’s a total disaster wasting to happen. The commodity markets just can’t sustain this sort of effect.

        • Nils

Well with those physical funds and ETF and regular people buying bars and coins you also have the hoarding. This also increases the amount of product that is theoretically available – most of those relying on physical products are doing so because they are thinking that the supply decreases. This of course only applies to things that spoil or get used, not to items which are kept solely for their trade value.

Of course for Wall Street and the Commercial players there are a lot more options available to offset and hedge the trades than hoarding physical, while on the other hand the small trader can’t take delivery on futures or exchange GLD/SLV shares for product (or the other way). Then you have over the counter market between institutions…

Of course this trend is alarming, especially since the positive correlation can choke every recovery. But as always a lot of people will have to get burned to learn. At least the commodities exchanges are trying to curtail speculation a bit.

 

3. What Wall Street doesn’t want us to know about oil prices

Source: The Washington Post
Bernie Sanders

September 16, 2011

The top six financial institutions in this country own assets equal to more than 60 percent of our gross domestic product and possess enormous economic and political power. One of the great questions of our time is whether the American people, through Congress, will control the greed, recklessness and illegal behavior on Wall Street, or whether Wall Street will continue to wreak havoc on our economy and the lives of working families.

I represent Vermont, a rural state where many workers drive long distances to jobs that pay $12 an hour or less. Many seniors living on fixed incomes heat their homes with oil during our cold winters. These people have asked me to do all that I can to lower outrageously high gasoline and heating-oil prices. I intend to do just that.

Why have oil prices spiked wildly? Some argue that the volatility is a result of supply-and-demand fundamentals. More and more observers, however, believe that excessive speculation in the oil futures market by investors is driving oil prices sky high.

A June 2 article in the Wall Street Journal said it all: “Wall Street is tapping a real gusher in 2011, as heightened volatility and higher prices of oil and other raw materials boost banks’ profits.” ExxonMobil Chairman Rex Tillerson, testifying before a Senate panel this year, said that excessive speculation may have increased oil prices by as much as 40 percent. Delta Air Lines general counsel Richard Hirst wrote to federal regulators in December that “the speculative bubble in oil prices has concrete detrimental consequences for the real economy.” An American Trucking Association vice president, Richard Moskowitz, said, “Excessive speculation has caused dramatic increases in the price of crude oil, which harms end-users like America’s trucking industry.”

After I released records last month that documented the role of speculators, I was criticized on this page last week by two former members of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. I put the information on my Web site for three reasons.

First, the American people have a right to know why oil prices are artificially high. The CFTC report proved that when oil prices climbed in 2008 to more than $140 a barrel, Wall Street speculators dominated the oil futures market. Goldman Sachs alone bought and sold more than 860 million barrels of oil in the summer of 2008 with no intention of using a drop for any purpose other than to make a quick buck.

Wall Street, of course, wants to hide this information. They don’t want the American people to know the extent to which speculators keep oil prices artificially high and the great damage that does to our economy. After the information became public, it was suggested that some on Wall Street may stop trading in the oil futures market. Good!

Second, Congress recognized last year that excessive oil speculation must end. The Dodd-Frank financial reform legislation required the CFTC to eliminate, prevent or diminish excessive oil speculation by Jan. 17, 2011. Months after that deadline, the commission still has failed to enforce the law, and speculators still are making out like bandits.

Third, the commodity regulators’ claim that they cannot end excessive oil speculation because they lack sufficient data is nonsense. As the information I released makes clear, the commission has been collecting this information for more than three years. The time for studying is over. It is time for action.

I agree with former commissioners James E. Newsome and Fred Hatfield in one respect. Trust in government is at an all-time low. That’s not because Washington is too heavy-handed with Wall Street. Quite the contrary! The American people are angry and disillusioned because they see our government act boldly to protect Wall Street CEOs but not ordinary Americans. When Wall Street needed a $700 billion bailout, the government was there for them. When working families need an end to excessive oil speculation and real relief at the gas pump, the government has failed to act.

The same Dodd-Frank bill that required commodity regulators to limit speculators included my amendment calling for an audit of the Federal Reserve from Dec. 1, 2007, to July 21,  2010, the period of the financial crisis. What we learned was that the Fed provided $16 trillion in secret, low-interest loans to every major American financial institution and to other central banks, large corporations and wealthy individuals. The audit provision was vigorously opposed by the Federal Reserve chairman. It was right, however, that the veil of secrecy at the Fed was lifted and the American people learned about its actions.

Now it is appropriate to lift the veil of secrecy in the oil futures market. The American people have a right to know how much excessive speculation has driven up oil prices and which Wall Street firms are doing it.

The writer is an independent senator from Vermont.

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eaandersSeptember 23rd, 2011 at 4:42 pm

With increasing concern for the health of the world economy there has been a flight to the dollar. Doesn't this account for the recent slump in commodity prices? If you watch the markets it seem that every time the market tanks, the dollar strengthens against other currencies and oil prices drop.

demandsideforecastSeptember 23rd, 2011 at 10:26 pm

The real damage of the commodities bubble was on the way up. Starving people to make profits for Wall Street traders and crushing demand for other goods and services that employ more people than these essentially extractive industries. Such spikes have triggered slumps for decades, including the last four. Not that they are the cause or condition, but they are the catalyst. Clearly you are correct, in detail, and on every point.

shgoldbergSeptember 25th, 2011 at 10:01 pm

L. Randall: You present a compelling argument for a commodity bubble. Yes, the financialization of commodities has truly played a role in rising global commodity prices via the many new ETPs (exchange traded products) backed by either commodity futures or physicals, as well as indices and other forms of investible instruments. Yet I wish to point out a three specific flaws to your argument._1) Many commodities, whose prices not only have risen over the decades but have shown large swings in volatility, are not exchange-traded. In the case of many fruits and vegetables, financial speculation was not the cause of high prices. Mediterranean countries saw rapid escalation in the price of tomatoes in the last few years, while Latin American nations experienced a tripling of bean prices within months. No tomato or chili bean futures contracts exist to date. On numerous occasions, these and other commodity prices rose faster than those of exchange traded commodities due to such factors as low yields, poor crop numbers and bad harvests as well as hording by governments in times of scarcity or domestic inflation. Today, 17 different rare earth metals are the focus and are largely not exchange traded

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