The Kapali Carsi

Turkish economy living on borrowed time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble.

Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss the reasons behind lira’s underperformance early in the week.. As always, you can read the whole thing at the HDN website– so that you can get me clicks at the HDN site:)

I do not have much to add to the column… except that sarcasm is really the best way for a columnist to express himself/herself in Turkey these days- HINT: 2nd paragraph 2nd sentence… But most of the columns I wrote during the past two weeks, which I did not post here, are on the topics I mention in the column: For example, my Dec. 12 column is about Turkey’s growth woes, which is also related to my Dec. 5 column, where I argue that whatever is left of growth will be driven entirely by consumption next year- barring sharp (emergency) rate hikes a la Turkey January or Russia December, in which case the country would not grow at all. Finally, you can find more discussion of the Turkish economy’s vulnerabilities, such as the foreign currency debt, in my Dec. 8 column, where I summarized the IMF’s latest report on the Turkish economy.

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