The Kapali Carsi

Six puzzles of the Turkish economy

I have been burning a lot of brain cells of late on six puzzles of the Turkish economy. I have already made some way into solving some of them, while I am still baffled by others. I will simply state them today, with the hope of sharing my answers over the course of the next few weeks.

Here’s the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I summarize not only this column, but also upcoming six columns over the next 2-3 months or so. Anyway, you can read the whole thing and learn about the puzzles at the HDN website.

With one eye closed (nope, Supreme Leader President Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan did not beat me up, just an infection), I am semi-blind at the moment. So I won’t have an addendum here for a change. Except that if you are working on/ thinking about these issues as well, I would very much love to hear your views/thoughts…

2 Responses to “Six puzzles of the Turkish economy”

mba120November 14th, 2014 at 6:28 pm

Hi Emre Bey,

First of all, I have been reading your articles or analysis through a friend of mine. These are valuable pieces.

Just from my end, some (maybe I should say most) of the actual numbers dont match data declared by TUIK. I wont go into GDP or unemployment; there are so many examples; methodology changes, bla bla..

One thing I can quote as an ex is house sales statistics by TUIK. They claim that the number of houses financed by mortgages went up by this or that percent on a yoy basis in 2014, but when you delve into bank loans data through BDDK, you will see that new housing loans for 2014 are nearly one half of the levels in 2013. I guess you can explain that by lower amounts outstanding mortgages in 2014 which dont make any sense.Just sthing to think about.

Keep up the good work.



koylugozeliNovember 27th, 2014 at 8:57 pm

Hello Emre,

Good stream of posts lately, they are thought provoking. If you may, could you please expand on specifically what you think is puzzling about the inflation, unemployment, and construction boom in Turkey?