Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

Roubini Topic Archive: Trade and External Balance

  • Does Argentina’s “Nike Effect” Hold Lessons for Europe?

    What happens when a country faces forced austerity, a banking crisis, a risk of sovereign default, and pressure to abandon a currency peg it has sworn to be eternal and unbreakable? Several European countries are in this position today, but there is nothing really new about it. It’s all happened before, most recently in Argentina in the winter of 2001-02. So what became of Argentina? Are there any lessons there for today’s Europe?

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  • How China’s Inflation Policy Will Shape the Yuan-Dollar Exchange Rate

    By freezing its exchange rate and pulling out all the stops on fiscal and monetary stimulus, China got through the global recession with only a mild slowdown in GDP growth. Now it is facing the inflationary consequences. Consumer price inflation, after rising steadily all year, hit a 4.4% annual rate in October, approaching the government’s red line. How will China choose to deal with the inflation threat? The answer is important both for China and its trading partners, because anti-inflation policy will determine what happens to the exchange rate of the yuan over the coming months.

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  • The Debt Commission Is Right: Tax Reform Is the Path to Growth-Friendly Fiscal Consolidation

    The day before yesterday’s draft co-chairs’ proposal from the bipartisan National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform is the latest contribution to the ongoing national debate on fiscal consolidation. The G20 finance ministers, at their pre-summit meeting, issued a Communiqué endorsing the concept of “ambitious and growth-friendly medium-term fiscal consolidation,” but gave no hint as to what such a program might actually look like. The NCFRR co-chairs’ make a good start at filling in the blanks by placing tax reform at the heart of their proposal. It is the best way forward, and really, the only way.

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  • India’s Secret Weapon in its Economic Race with China

    The eclipse of the G7 by the G20 puts the spotlight more than ever on India and China as the economic superpowers of the future. So far, China has the lead, but India has a secret weapon that will carry it into first place by the end of the century. What exactly? Widely spoken English? That helps India’s service sector, but it is not decisive. Democracy? True, democracies outperform authoritarian regimes on average. It is no coincidence that 17 of the G20 are functioning democracies, but China is hanging in there as an exception to the rule. No, the real secret weapon that will carry India into the lead is demographics.

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