EconoMonitor

Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

Roubini Topic Archive: Europe

  • Ukraine or Russia? How Would Economic Factors Influence a Vote?

    Last month residents of Crimea voted to secede from Ukraine and join the Russian Federation. Although many in the West have questioned the freedom and fairness of the referendum, which was held in the intimidating presence of Russian troops, no one doubts that many Crimean residents did have a true preference for the Russian option. […]

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  • Navalny: Change Russia, Start with Moscow—and that Goes for the Economy, Too

    Alexei Navalny, lawyer, blogger, and opposition activist, has a simple slogan for his campaign to become mayor of Moscow: Change Russia, start with Moscow. His program urges a broad spectrum of changes to legal, political, educational, and healthcare systems, but reform of Moscow’s and Russia’s economy underlie all of them. Russia’s economy certainly could use […]

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  • The Eurozone’s Woes in One Big Chart

    The latest data from Eurostat shows that fewer than half of the eurozone’s economies are now growing. Real GDP in the EZ as a whole was 0.4 percent lower in the first quarter of 2013 than a year earlier. The worst news came from the bloc’s biggest economies: Germany’s growth fell from 0.7 percent Y-o-Y […]

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  • How the Latin Triangle Swallowed the Euro

    Back in 1996, Rudiger Dornbusch wrote a paper about the political economy of exchange rates in Latin America. He called it “The Latin Triangle”. It describes a cycle in which governments become trapped in inappropriate fixed-exchange rates that inevitably end unhappily. Latin America has put that particular form of economic instability behind it, but a […]

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  • What Happened When Poland’s Fixed Exchange Rate Experiment Failed: Lessons for a Euro Divorce

    In a recent paper, Arnab Das and Nouriel Roubini  compare exit from the euro area to a divorce. (See long form here, short form here.) When we hear that friends are heading for the divorce court, two questions immediately come to mind. Why did this arrangement, which seemed like a good idea at the time, […]

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  • Why the Russian Economy Is No Longer a Big Plus for Putin

    Vladimir Putin’s decision to return to the presidency has touched off a wave of protests in Russia. The motives behind the protests are partly social and political (see this recent post), but economics also plays a role in Putin’s fading popularity. It is far from clear that the present regime will be able to continue […]

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  • What Do the Russian Protesters Want? One Observer’s View of Problems and Needed Reforms

    Commentators have compared the recent Russian protests to those of Tahrir Square and Occupy Wall Street. There are differences, of course, but certain similarities stand out. For one thing, these recent movements differ from, say, Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, in that none of them has a clear leader. Instead, they have coalesced around negatives: Egypt without […]

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  • Can New Fiscal Rules Save the Euro? Three Details to Watch For

    Yesterday  Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy announced a new set of fiscal rules, their latest idea to save the euro.  The new rules would replace the unworkable Stability and Growth Pact (SGP), which mandates a deficit of no more than 3 percent of GDP and debt of no more than 60 percent of GDP. Yesterday’s […]

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  • How Gordon Brown Saved Britain from the Euro and Why that Makes him a Hero

    In his new book, Alistair Darling describes Gordon Brown’s political style as “appalling,” “volcanic,” and “brutal.” He should know. The two men sat together in the cabinet for years while Brown was chancellor. Darling then served as chancellor himself when Brown finally became prime minister. Now that Brown is out of office, it seems he […]

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  • The UBS-Adoboli Scandal Shows the Problem of Negatively Skewed Risk is Still With Us

    In my banking courses, I point to negatively skewed trading strategies as a key cause of the crash of 2008. The recent loss of more than $2 billion attributed to rogue trades by Kweku Adoboli at Swiss banking giant UBS shows that the problem of negatively skewed risk is still with us. It is an […]

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