EconoMonitor

Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

Category Archive: Exchange rates

  • China’s Latest “Devaluation:” A Currency War in the Making?

    China’s currency has, once again, been weakening against the dollar. It is down by more than 4 percent since October, including a fall of more than one percent just last week. Writing in the New York Times, Landon Thomas, Jr. warned that “China’s decision to push the value of its currency lower has opened a […]

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  • Is Greece Like Israel? Why the New Yorker is Wrong about the Shekel and the Euro

    Bernard Avishai, who teaches business at the Hebrew University in Jerusalem, published an article in The New Yorker this week titled “Why Greece Needs the Euro.” A key part of his argument hinges on a comparison between Greece and Italy. In fact, Avishai has it backwards. A closer look at the Israeli experience shows that […]

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  • “Truth Teller” Donald Trump Fudges the Facts about Chinese Currency Manipulation

    Donald Trump is surging in the GOP primary polls, partly on the basis of a carefully crafted reputation for telling it as it is. Even rival Ted Cruz thinks Trump is “teriffic” and “brash,” saying, “I think he tells the truth.” But when he comes to China’s exchange rate policy, he is about as far […]

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  • Does Putin’s Proposed Eurasian Currency Union Make Sense?

    At a meeting in Kazakhstan last week,  Russian  President Vladimir Putin proposed a currency union for the members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU).  Russia, Kazakhstan, Belarus, and Armenia are the current members, and Kyrgyzstan is scheduled to join later this spring. Does a common currency for the EAEU make sense? Not in economic terms, […]

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  • What Lies Behind the Plunge of the Ruble?

    Russia’s economy is in trouble. Growth has come to a halt. A recession looms in 2015. Inflation, interest rates, and capital flight are up. The government’s budget is under strain. More than any of these, what makes the headlines is the plunge of the ruble, which, at one point in mid-December, had lost half of […]

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  • The Curse of Riches, the Dutch Disease, and Social Progress

    The curse of riches or resource curse has been a staple of development economics for decades. The curse refers to the striking fact that many resource rich states, such as Nigeria and Congo, are conflict-ridden basket cases while some of the world’s best performing economies are islands or city-states, such as Japan, Taiwan, and Hong […]

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  • Update: Fed’s Taper Puts Brazil’s Currency Volatility Back in the Spotlight

    Brazil’s volatile currency is back in the spotlight, thanks to the Fed’s announcement that it will soon begin to taper its program of asset purchases known as Q3. The following chart shows that the exchange rate for Brazil’s currency, the real, is approaching the low reached after the August taper scare and is almost back […]

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  • Why the Baltic Recovery is Not a Success Story for Austerity: Lessons for the US

    While EU members along the shores of the Mediterranean struggle with a seemingly endless slump, others who dip their toes in the Baltic are making a strong comeback. As the following chart shows, real GDP growth in the Baltic 3—Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania—has recently run well above the euro area average. Meanwhile, the Med 4—Greece, […]

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  • Who are the Biggest Trans-Pacific Currency Manipulators? How Great is the Threat?

    Recently a bi-partisan group of 60 U.S. Senators made headlines with a letter to Treasury Secretary Jack Lew. The letter urged him to add a clause to the proposed Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) trade agreement prohibiting currency manipulation. The Senators cited a Peterson Institute study that claimed currency manipulation had cost the United States 5 million […]

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  • Brazil’s Volatile Real: Why Currency Fluctuations are Painful

    Brazil’s volatile currency, the real, is back in the news. Two years ago, the real hit all-time highs against the dollar. The rise prompted Brazil’s finance minister, Guido Mantega, to accuse the central banks of advanced countries, the Fed in particular, of conducting a “currency war” at his country’s expense.  Now the real is heading […]

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