Ed Dolan's Econ Blog

Latest US GDP Data Show Economy Weak at Year’s End but Corporate Profits Near Record High

The latest data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis confirm that the U.S. economy barely grew in Q4 2012. However, despite the weak economy, corporate profits as a share of GDP hit their second highest level ever.

Based on the latest data, the BEA revised Q4 real GDP growth upward from an annual rate of 0.1 percent to 0.4 percent, still the second-slowest quarterly growth since the recovery began in 2009. The following table compares the latest revision to the second estimate released last month.

Consumer spending was weaker than previously reported, with durable goods accounting for most of the growth that did take place. Fixed investment was a relative bright spot, led by business equipment and computers. However, growth of fixed investment was almost wholly offset by a decrease in nonfarm inventories. The BEA data provides no direct indication of the motive for inventory change, but it is easy to imagine that at least some businesses were showing caution about restocking, in view of anticipated tax increases and cuts in government spending for early 2013.

In fact, as the table shows, fiscal tightening had already started in Q4. Decreasing government consumption expenditure and gross investment contributed a negative 1.41 percentage points to GDP growth in the quarter. A decrease in defense spending accounted for most of that, but falling state and local spending also accounted for -0.18 percentage points. As the following chart shows, government spending (more exactly, government consumption and gross investment) has been a negative factor throughout much of the recovery. In view of the outcome of the fiscal cliff negotiations and sequester, that trend will almost certainly continue in 2013.

Today’s BEA report confirmed that exports fell in Q4 2012 for the first time since Q1 2009, although the decrease was not quite as great as previously reported. The positive contribution of net exports to GDP growth was entirely due to a decrease in imports. (Imports are entered in the GDP accounts with a negative sign, so the positive 0.73 percentage point change shown in the table indicates a decrease.)

Despite the generally downbeat GDP data, corporate profits were strong in the last quarter of the year. As the next chart shows, both before-tax and after-tax profits, stated as a percentage of GDP, reached their second-highest level ever recorded, falling just short of their all-time highs of Q4 2011. The ability of corporations to squeeze out increasing profits in the face of a stagnating economy has no doubt been one of the factors supporting the strong performance of the stock market. Evidently, investors are expecting that trend to continue in the first quarter of 2013.

As the BEA press release states, the latest revision of Q4 data does little to change the overall picture of the economy in the fourth quarter. We will get to see the next batch of data, which will provide a much-anticipated advance look at the first quarter of 2013, on April 26.


4 Responses to “Latest US GDP Data Show Economy Weak at Year’s End but Corporate Profits Near Record High”

TomMarch 29th, 2013 at 12:50 pm

Re: the declining government contribution to GDP, there are two reason. One is the well known austerity, which has been underway at the local level since the crisis and at the federal level since 2011. The other is a slow, creeping shift in the composition of federal spending, towards more transfer payments and less federal consumption and investment. Only government consumption and investment are counted in the government contribution to GDP. Transfer payments show up under personal consumption. Since most transfer payments fall under non-discretionary spending, and there's no consensus for reforms of any of them, they're going to continue squeezing other kinds of government spending and that's going to depress the government contribution to GDP, for the foreseeable future, more than simple austerity alone would do.

Didzis MelkisMarch 31st, 2013 at 1:23 pm

Ed kindly answered "a question from Europe" on e-mail but actually that comment could be interesting also to a wider audience:
Me: Does it mean that corporations have reformed themselves towards efficiency? And are "helicopter Ben's" activities calculated into that government's negative contribution to GDP?
Ed: It does seem that corporations are becoming more efficiency conscious, getting along with less staff, holding wages down, and even (in some cases) starting to pay a little attention to executive pay. Productivity growth in the US has been good throughout the recession. The flip side is that the median income of workers has been flat for years.
I don't think the Fed has much of any direct contribution to GDP one way or another, aside from the salaries of its employees, which go into GCEGI.

Aygul OzkaragozApril 2nd, 2013 at 4:19 am

The Bar chart in the Google spreadsheets places the time variable on the lower x-axis and allows a much more streamlined presentation of data without the cluttered look of Excel, as above.

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