Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

Turkish Economy Living on Borrowed Time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble. Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Credit Bubbles Redux

Central banks insist that there is no credit bubble. But like politicians, where a central banker denies something vigorously and repeatedly, it is usually true. To resurrect the global economy from the Great Recession, central banks implemented a policy of ultra-low interest rates and quantitative easing (“QE”) to restore growth. The policy relies, in part, […]

Turkey’s monetary policy soap opera

Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan’s criticism of the Central Bank of Turkey, to which I had referred to in my last post, set the economic theme for the week. Not only the PM carried on with his criticism, other cabinet members got involved as well, and on both sides. Actually, there is only one side […]

China’s Debt Endgames

Quick And Slow Deaths… Understandably, the major focus now is on the denouement of the crisis. Pessimists are concerned about a catastrophic crash. Optimists are more sanguine, expecting a soft landing with gradual reforms correcting the systemic issues. The crash scenario is predicated on continuing increases in debt levels and over-investment. Policy adjustments are fatally […]

My Warning to All IstanBulls

Markets’ mood towards Turkey took a decisive turn for the better last week. In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I look at the different reasons for this change in mood, such as economic data, emerging market sentiment and political developments. I also give you my take on whether I agree with the optimistic […]