Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy

Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is […]

QE será, será

I always dismissed arguments that the eurozone’s time as an economic power was up, pointing out the strengths of the common currency area. But I finally realized that I have been wrong all along. I start my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column by explaining why the Europeans do not know how to conduct monetary policy:)- I […]

Six puzzles of the Turkish economy

I have been burning a lot of brain cells of late on six puzzles of the Turkish economy. I have already made some way into solving some of them, while I am still baffled by others. I will simply state them today, with the hope of sharing my answers over the course of the next […]

Turkish Monetary Policy Exacerbates Inequality

In my previous Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, which I also posted here, I illustrated the difference between market and academic economists (or economics columnists) by explaining what the Central Bank should and would do at Thursday’s rate setting meeting. The Central Bank did cut its policy rate by 50 basis points as expected yesterday, […]

‘Should’ Turkish Monetary Policy

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I discuss what the Central Bank of Turkey should do at Thursday’s rate-setting meeting- versus what it will actually do. You can read the whole thing at the HDN website, and I have a few additional points to make. First of all, I was planning to write […]

A Tale of Two Turkeys

You probably often see very conflicting views of the Turkish economy. If you are sick of my gloomy writings (hey, it is called the dismal science), there are plenty of columns and research reports painting a rosy view of the Turkish economy. So how can we reconcile these different assessments? Well, the easiest way out […]

Coal for Votes – or Maybe Even Lives? (and Other Turkey Data Tales)

This week (June 8-13) is/was Turkey’s quarterly data intensive week. In addition to first quarter National Income Accounts, we had April Industrial Production and Balance of Payments- as well as a bunch of second-tier data. In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I summarized this data and highlighted a particular observation about industrial production. […]

1 2 3 4