Battle Royale: Saudi v. American Oil

Saudi Arabia is trying to strangle American shale oil. They’ve been going at it for months now, and American shale has resisted. Forced into greater efficiency, production is up and American producers look better equipped to face low prices in the future. The Saudis are a bit surprised, but the battle is far from over. […]

Japan’s America Policy: Shrewd and Risky

In a small group, on-the-record meeting with Japanese Ambassador Kenichiro Sasae just days before Prime Minister Abe’s Washington visit, I was able to glean some insight into not only Japan’s goals for the trip, but its long-term strategy for getting more from the US than it wants to give as well. Success is by no […]

The Saudi Re-engineering of the Global Corporate Oil Board

Something interesting is happening now. Energy insiders and OPEC officials are saying publicly and privately that the days of OPEC managing the market is over, and it certainly seems that OPEC’s cohesion is breaking down. In truth, OPEC may already be a thing of the path, and Saudi Arabia appears to be in the midst of creating […]

Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy

Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is […]

QE será, será

I always dismissed arguments that the eurozone’s time as an economic power was up, pointing out the strengths of the common currency area. But I finally realized that I have been wrong all along. I start my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column by explaining why the Europeans do not know how to conduct monetary policy:)- I […]

Should Commodity Futures Margins Be Regulated?

Transactions in futures involve two counterparties, the buyer and the seller.  Every counterparty has to put aside the margin, an amount to serve as a collateral deposit in the event that she cannot meet its obligations stemming from the futures contract agreement.  Until recently, futures exchanges had the authority to set and change margin levels […]

Turkish Economy Living on Borrowed Time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble. Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Turkey: The markets’ Cinderella Man

Seen as one of the most vulnerable emerging markets (EMs) not too long ago, Turkey is on a Cinderella run, attracting significant capital inflows. Foreigners’ net equity and bond investments rose by $0.9 and 1.4 billion respectively during the last four weeks. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

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