Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

Turkey: The markets’ Cinderella Man

Seen as one of the most vulnerable emerging markets (EMs) not too long ago, Turkey is on a Cinderella run, attracting significant capital inflows. Foreigners’ net equity and bond investments rose by $0.9 and 1.4 billion respectively during the last four weeks. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

‘Should’ Turkish Monetary Policy

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I discuss what the Central Bank of Turkey should do at Thursday’s rate-setting meeting- versus what it will actually do. You can read the whole thing at the HDN website, and I have a few additional points to make. First of all, I was planning to write […]

ECB Measures to Boost Bond Performance, Not Growth

Growth is still low … Yet to recover from the 2008-crisis, the global economy faces below-potential growth prospects. Until the developed world pays down sovereign and corporate debt, deleveraging and unemployment will constrain the recovery. Frail consumer confidence, sluggish demand and the ensuing drop in consumption in advanced economies will not be offset by final […]

Have Turkish Political Risks Been Priced In?

Two of the three analysts interviewed by Wall Street Journal Turkey for an article with a similar title think so. Most of the investment professionals I have talked to this past week are of the same opinion. That second sentence was confirmed when Turkish stocks rallied after the remaining detainees in the graft scandal, including […]

A Standard and Poor Decision on Turkey – NOT!

Jagshemash; Here’s the link to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where I discuss S&P’s Turkey outlook downgrade. As usual, I have a few additional points to make: First, some people are arguing that there is a political element to all this. You may remember that Turkey got the coveted second investment grade the […]