Summary of Turkish Q1 GDP

Turkish first quarter National Income Accounts (NIA) were released today. It is safe to say that the key word is rebalancing- from domestic to external demand, which is a positive development given the country’s large current account deficit and dependency on capital flows for growth: Some analysts have claimed that the adjustment is mainly due […]

Turkish Government’s ‘Coal for Votes’ Program

At 4.6 percent yoy, April industrial production, which was released yesterday (June 9), turned out to higher than expectations of 3.5 percent. At first glance, the data confirms the dichotomy between domestic and external demand. While sectors catering to domestic demand grew moderately, production in export-oriented sectors such as textiles, chemicals and motor vehicles rose […]

Turkey’s monetary policy soap opera

Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan’s criticism of the Central Bank of Turkey, to which I had referred to in my last post, set the economic theme for the week. Not only the PM carried on with his criticism, other cabinet members got involved as well, and on both sides. Actually, there is only one side […]

G-20 Meeting – Let There Be Growth!

The G-20 Finance Ministers’ Meeting in Sydney in February 2014 provided a convivial winter break for the global economic elite. Travellers from the Northern Hemisphere could enjoy the Southern summer. Everybody could escape domestic political traumas, spending a few days amongst peers in luxury paid for by taxpayers. They could bask in the slavish adulation […]

My Warning to All IstanBulls

Markets’ mood towards Turkey took a decisive turn for the better last week. In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I look at the different reasons for this change in mood, such as economic data, emerging market sentiment and political developments. I also give you my take on whether I agree with the optimistic […]

Industrial Production: Another Turkish Data Puzzle

At 6.9 percent yoy, December industrial production (IP) came in much higher than expectations of 4.9 percent. Part of this is base effect; in fact, working day and seasonally-adjusted industrial production was unchanged over the previous month. However, machinery and equipment, which Turkey economists use as a leading indicator of investment, surged (red is yoy, […]