Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

Turkish Economy Living on Borrowed Time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble. Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Six puzzles of the Turkish economy

I have been burning a lot of brain cells of late on six puzzles of the Turkish economy. I have already made some way into solving some of them, while I am still baffled by others. I will simply state them today, with the hope of sharing my answers over the course of the next […]

A Tale of Two Turkeys

You probably often see very conflicting views of the Turkish economy. If you are sick of my gloomy writings (hey, it is called the dismal science), there are plenty of columns and research reports painting a rosy view of the Turkish economy. So how can we reconcile these different assessments? Well, the easiest way out […]

GDP: Seasons and Revisions

Growth from the fourth quarter of 2013 to the first quarter of 2014, originally thought to have been about +0.1% in April, was revised last week to –2.9%. That’s at a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate (SAAR)—the way the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) usually reports real GDP growth. News reports varied between shock and concern. […]

Coal for Votes – or Maybe Even Lives? (and Other Turkey Data Tales)

This week (June 8-13) is/was Turkey’s quarterly data intensive week. In addition to first quarter National Income Accounts, we had April Industrial Production and Balance of Payments- as well as a bunch of second-tier data. In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I summarized this data and highlighted a particular observation about industrial production. […]

1 2 3