Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy

Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is […]

Turkish Economy Living on Borrowed Time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble. Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Turkey: The markets’ Cinderella Man

Seen as one of the most vulnerable emerging markets (EMs) not too long ago, Turkey is on a Cinderella run, attracting significant capital inflows. Foreigners’ net equity and bond investments rose by $0.9 and 1.4 billion respectively during the last four weeks. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Turkey’s monetary policy soap opera

Turkish Prime Minister RecepTayyip Erdogan’s criticism of the Central Bank of Turkey, to which I had referred to in my last post, set the economic theme for the week. Not only the PM carried on with his criticism, other cabinet members got involved as well, and on both sides. Actually, there is only one side […]

The Growing Pains of the Chinese Yuan

The recent volatility of the yuan does not herald its weakening, but the increasing opening of the currency and still another milestone in its international ascent. After a sharp depreciation of the renminbi since the beginning of 2014, the US, in early April, warned Beijing not to manipulate its currency, ahead of IMF, World Bank and G20 […]

Understanding Bitcoins

What is a Bitcoin? Introduced in 2009 as a peer-to-peer payment system, the bitcoin developed into a digital currency (BTCs).  Today, the BTC is a financial network able to both transfer and create money. BTCs issuance and use is decentralized (see below), and loosely regulated by the Bitcoin Foundation, a non-profit organization. As BTCs are […]

Japan’s (and Turkey’s) J-curse

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News column, I discuss why the weakness in the yen did not result in an improvement in the country’s trade balance, as the J-curve effect would predict (and therefore it is a curse)- and what this would mean for Turkey. As usual, you can read the whole thing at the […]

Have Turkish Political Risks Been Priced In?

Two of the three analysts interviewed by Wall Street Journal Turkey for an article with a similar title think so. Most of the investment professionals I have talked to this past week are of the same opinion. That second sentence was confirmed when Turkish stocks rallied after the remaining detainees in the graft scandal, including […]