Inflation Lowest in Nearly Five Years

Consumer price inflation dropped from 1.8% to 1.6% in August, slightly above expectations, though the lowest since January 2005. It should fall again next month, to just above 1%. Lower food and energy prices were responsible for the fall, with “core” inflation staying at 1.8%. RPI inflation is no longer benefiting from falling house prices. […]

What Would Friedman Say?

I have argued that the ECB didn’t do enough to support the Eurozone (a few examples here, here, here) – further monetary policy was warranted. As the financial crisis abates and key economies mend, I want to revisit this issue just one more time. Now, it seems that the Fed could beef up its lending, […]

Growing Again

Official industrial production figures for July suggested strongly that the economy is on course for growth in the third quarter. The 0.5% rise in industrial production between June and July left it 0.9% higher than its second quarter average, suggesting a significant relapse would be needed in August and September not to produce quarterly growth. […]

Second Quarter GDP Revised Up

The second quarter GDP numbers wrongfooted some City economists, who wrongly thought that exceptionally weak business investment figures for the quarter, released on Thursday, would produce a downward revision to the figures. Top marks to Ben Broadbent and Kevin Daly of Goldman Sachs, who wrote this on Thursday: “Note that this number has NO bearing […]

Nationwide Starts to Look Like a Trend

The fourth consecutive rise in house prices from the Nationwide, up 1.6% in August compared with July, is also the fourth in a row to show a rise of 1% or more. Just as the monthly falls were larger than normal in the downswing, so these are larger-than-normal monthly rises. The annualised rise over the […]

The UK Private Sector Hasn’t Shrunk

Yesterday’s Sunday Telegraph contained an article, based on research from the think tank Policy Exchange, that Britain’s private sector will be smaller next year than it was in 1998. Fascinating and alarming, if true. The article is here. The economic output of the private sector next year will be an inflation-adjusted £706.1 billion next year, […]

Bank’s Easing Clips the Wings of the Rising Pound

So there we were, celebrating the fact that Britain’s recession was over bar the shouting, a fact endorsed by sterling’s climb to $1.70, its highest level against the dollar since October. Not only that but the evidence was becoming compelling that Britain’s recovery will arrive sooner than in most other economies, and certainly those of […]

1 30 31 32