There’s a Cat, a Killer, and There’s Shiller

Crouched behind the magnolia bush, I can hear rustling inside shrubs ten feet away. The night is quiet…deeply still. As quick as I can swallow there is a sudden, two-second onslaught of screeches and scratches to my back and shoulder before I throw the howling cat to the ground…in hackneyed suspense, my heart finally settles, […]

Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy

Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is […]

QE será, será

I always dismissed arguments that the eurozone’s time as an economic power was up, pointing out the strengths of the common currency area. But I finally realized that I have been wrong all along. I start my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column by explaining why the Europeans do not know how to conduct monetary policy:)- I […]

Turkish Economy Living on Borrowed Time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble. Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Turkey: The markets’ Cinderella Man

Seen as one of the most vulnerable emerging markets (EMs) not too long ago, Turkey is on a Cinderella run, attracting significant capital inflows. Foreigners’ net equity and bond investments rose by $0.9 and 1.4 billion respectively during the last four weeks. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Other Perspectives on the New Bond-Market Conundrum

Last week I commented on a puzzling phenomenon in bond markets this year– long-term rates have been falling at the same time that nearer-term rates have been rising. Bruegel has a review of some of the discussion of this around the web. Nominal yields on different U.S. Treasury securities as a function of years to maturity as of […]

Beware of Corrective Forces

The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  The main exception was the Japanese yen.  The combination of the decline in US yields to new 12-month lows, the drop in equities (S&P 500 reached 3-month lows, and the heightened geopolitical anxiety appears to have prompted a further reduction of short […]

Risk-Off Momentum Rolls On

Treasury yields fell again yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year rate slipping to 2.43% at Thursday’s close—marking a 13-month low. More of the same is on tap at the moment: Early trading on Friday shows the yield dipping below 2.40%. Lower yields at this stage are a warning sign, of course, albeit inspired by a hodgepodge […]

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