When the Economy Reaches Stall Speed

If an airplane is moving too slowly, the plane is about to head down. Federal Reserve economist Jeremy Nalewaik has an interesting new paper exploring whether the same is true for the U.S. economy. Nalewaik notes first that the 4 quarters prior to recessions were usually characterized by slower real GDP growth than is typically […]

More Worries About the Foreclosure Overhang

The New York Times provides a workmanlike update on the impact of current and probable foreclosures on the housing market. The odd bit is that even though the article is downbeat, it manages to be relatively optimistic compared to industry sources. For instance, consider this section of the article: Over all, economists project that it […]

Measuring Systemic Financial Risk

On a recent visit to UCSD, NYU Professor and Nobel Laureate Rob Engle called my attention to the NYU Stern Volatility Laboratory, a great resource that anyone can use to get some very interesting real-time analysis. Here I’d like to describe some of the features available for assessing the systemic risk posed by financial institutions. […]

The War on Inflation

During World War II, advertisements warning against inflationary behavior were common.  One example: This is a simple description of a wage-price spiral, something that was a real threat at the time as massive resources were being directed at the war effort.  Some members of the Federal Reserve appear to believe this threat is as real […]

In The Beginning

It seems appropriate to start off our new home at EconoMonitor with a post rapture “tip of the hat” to the weekend that was (or was not).  As we sit pondering another bout with the East Coast deluge of rain, we are wondering if the Arc metaphors of last week are not about to have […]

Welcome to EconoMonitor

Our new EconoMonitor is the result of many months of contributor and reader feedback. But, while our site has been upgraded, our goal of creating a platform for the exchange of ideas has not changed. Founded by economist Nouriel Roubini in 2006, the EconoMonitor continues to feature the insight of some of the most respected […]

Are We on the Brink of High Inflation?

Core CPI: Blips or Trends Here’s a plot of three measures of core m/m inflation. I don’t see hyper (or even high ) inflation on the horizon, as some do [0] [1]. Since one observation doesn’t make a trend, for good measure I include also 3 month inflation. Figure 1: Month on month annualized inflation […]

Keeping Asia from Overheating

Asia’s vigorous pace of growth has seen the region play a leading role in the global recovery. But, there are also now growing signs of price pressure across the region’s goods and asset markets. Headline inflation in Asia has accelerated since October 2010, mainly owing to higher commodity prices. There are, of course, variations in […]

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