Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy

Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is […]

Turkey: The markets’ Cinderella Man

Seen as one of the most vulnerable emerging markets (EMs) not too long ago, Turkey is on a Cinderella run, attracting significant capital inflows. Foreigners’ net equity and bond investments rose by $0.9 and 1.4 billion respectively during the last four weeks. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Risk-Off Momentum Rolls On

Treasury yields fell again yesterday, with the benchmark 10-year rate slipping to 2.43% at Thursday’s close—marking a 13-month low. More of the same is on tap at the moment: Early trading on Friday shows the yield dipping below 2.40%. Lower yields at this stage are a warning sign, of course, albeit inspired by a hodgepodge […]

Argentina’s Default: A Not-So-Illogical Move

Argentina failed to reach an agreement with its holdout creditors last week, defaulting on its debt for the second time in thirteen years. In this piece for Foreign Policy, I explain why this outcome is not so surprising. You can read the beginning of the piece below:  On July 30, Argentina defaulted on its outstanding debt. The technical […]

Argentina Defaults: The Day After

Argentina has defaulted. The long-running court drama that ran for over ten years and pitted Argentina against a small group of holdout creditors was decided decisively in favor of the holdouts in June, and Argentina subsequently refused to make payments as required by the courts. As a result, neither the holdouts nor the holders of […]

‘Should’ Turkish Monetary Policy

In my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, I discuss what the Central Bank of Turkey should do at Thursday’s rate-setting meeting- versus what it will actually do. You can read the whole thing at the HDN website, and I have a few additional points to make. First of all, I was planning to write […]

Closing Dinner Remarks — The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar — June 21, 2014

Closing Dinner Remarks The Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar June 21, 2014 Daniel Alpert The Levy Economics Institute of Bard College Annandale-on-Hudson, New York This past weekend I was very honored to give the closing dinners remarks at the Levy Economic Institute’s Hyman P. Minsky Summer Seminar, which talk is set forth below.  The Summer […]

Argentina Wins/Loses

Argentina won an important contest last night at the World Cup, on a fine Messi goal.  However, while I’m a firm believer that nothing is more important than football, Argentina’s loss at the U.S. Supreme Court this morning may have larger long-term consequences. Without comment, the court rejected Argentina’s appeal of an earlier lower court […]

U.S. Interest Rates: The Potential Shock Heard Around the World

By Serkan Arslanalp and Yingyuan Chen: As the financial market turbulence of May 2013 demonstrated, the timing and management of the U.S. Fed exit from unconventional monetary policy is critical. Ouranalysis in the latest Global Financial Stability Report  suggests that if the U.S. exit is bumpy (Figure 1), although this is a tail risk and not our prediction, the result […]

1 2 3 18