2013 Investment Preview

This post originally appeared on Seeking Alpha last week.  I enjoy a wide following there, and I appreciate the opportunity to participate in their annual series.  As I note at the beginning of the interview, this is a very valuable resource.  I share the interview with readers of “A Dash” with the permission of Seeking […]

A Trap of My Own Making

Steve Waldman at interfluidity catches me in a trap of my own making.  Waldman focuses on this quote of mine: Ultimately, I don’t believe deficit spending should be directly monetized as I believe that Paul Krugman is correct – at some point in the future, the US economy will hopefully exit the zero bound, and at that point cash and […]

The Rich Got $17 Trillion Richer

Despite the many negative headlines, 2012 was a good year for markets. Listed below is a rough snapshot of total returns in USD – most asset classes returned double-digits. 2012 was a year to look through pessimism – how did your PA do? I would estimate that Global Financial Wealth rose by $17,500,000,000,000 to $162 trillion (I ignore […]

Drawing the Wrong Lessons From Argentina’s Debt Mess

The Financial Times  has joined the chorus of those calling for a new statutory sovereign debt restructuring mechanism (SDRM), citing Argentina’s legal battle with holdout creditors as evidence of a broken system for restructuring sovereign debt. The SDRM, as most commonly understood, envisages a formal restructuring process, analogous to national bankruptcy law, to deal with the […]

A Word About Portfolio Rebalancing

On Tuesday’s Bloomberg Surveillance show, Tom Keene referenced some of my bullet points from Keep Investing Simple. (One bullet was to Ignore the Chattering Class, but I was not referring to Tom, whom I have a great deal of respect for). Live TV being what it is, we briefly touched upon rebalancing, but gave it short shrift. A few […]

The Monti Legacy

Today I gave a talk at the Conference RENCONTRES ECONOMIQUES 2012 “L’ajustement des déséquilibres en zone euro” at the Ministry of Finance in Paris. I discussed the legacy of the Monti government, the positive and negative aspects of the economic reforms,  and some implications of the current governmernt crisis. I was very surprised to see how little the […]

Review of Major Asset Classes

The fiscal cliff is drawing closer in the US as the recession in Europe rolls on, but the major asset classes overall posted a modest gain for November. The Global Market Index (GMI) earned 0.8% last month and is up 9.8% on the year. The big winner in November: foreign stocks in developed markets as […]

Mr Market Feeling Better

Mr. Market is feeling a bit better today, and the dollar and yen’s safe havens are not as needed.  Global equities and emerging markets generally doing better.   Peripheral bond yields are mostly lower, and core bond yields marginally higher. The news stream has been favorable for risk taking.  The recovery in US shares yesterday, perhaps on […]

Social Security and the National Debt

In this season of fiscal brinksmanship, the topic of Social Security has once again come to the fore. Republicans are generally in favor of cutting benefits, although they are bit afraid to say so after the demise of George W. Bush’s privatization “plan”; Democrats are generally in favor of not cutting benefits. But many liberals […]