Summer Vigour

After having corrected somewhat in June, stock markets across Eastern Europe developed very positively in July. But the picture is not uniform and a few interesting observations emerge when analyzing the performance during the past month and the first half of the year. The most obvious conclusion is that Turkey outperformed during the first half […]

Shanghai Cracks

As mentioned in yesterday’s edition of “Words from the Wise“, the Chinese Shanghai Composite Index has now recorded four consecutive down-weeks. The Index witnessed another massive sell-off this morning, declining by a further 6.7% to take its total loss since the peak of August 4 to 23.2%. The losses happened on concerns of large Chinese […]

In this Difficult to Trade Market, You have to be More than Just Right…

From Bloomberg: Sears Holdings Reports Unexpected Loss After Pension Plan, Severance Costs Aug. 20 (Bloomberg) — Sears Holdings Corp., the biggest U.S. department-store company, reported an unexpected second- quarter loss on pension-plan expenses, severance payments to fired employees and costs to close stores. The net loss was $94 million, or 79 cents per share, compared […]

The China Effect

Today we present an abridged version of a new report examining China’s direct and indirect influences on global asset markets, and particularly equity, commodity and FX markets. The full version of the report is available to RGE Monitor premium subscribers. It takes a more in-depth look at Chinese commodity demand, the place of commodities within China’s foreign asset portfolio, as well as an update of our Chinese economic outlook. The full version also includes graphical analysis that should help readers parse recent trends in Chinese markets.  Enjoy the preview!

Chinese Equities

Zombie GM Stock is Proof Humans Are Not Rational

I have mentioned this in the past, but its one of those absurdities that refuses to die: “Whether it’s a matter of ignorance or greed, people are still buying General Motors stock, even though the company and the government have warned that the shares will someday be worthless. Investors are picking up millions of shares […]

Getting Bearish Again

You have probably noticed a change in tone at Credit Writedowns since about June, but a lot more in the past month or so. Once mildly bullish due to the deeply oversold levels this Spring, I have become increasingly alarmed at the unjustified strength of the recent market rally. My most recent post explaining my […]

Global Stock Markets – Pop ‘N Drop

I have written a fair bit over the past few days about the overbought level of most global stock markets and also how China – a leading market on the way up – could be the catalyst for triggering a reversal of fortune. It would seem the expected downward correction is now squarely under way […]

Ain’t Misbehavioral

No kidding, I received an abstract of this paper in an email newsletter recently: Effect of wind on stock market returns: evidence from European markets …………… Applied Financial Economics, 2009, vol. 19, issue 11, pages 893-904 Abstract: Environmental psychology studies have found evidence that wind speed has a strong influence on mood and comfort. This […]

Bob Farrell’s 10 Rules for Investing

Wall Street “gurus” come and go, but in the case of Bob Farrell legendary status was achieved. He spent several decades as chief stock market analyst at Merrill Lynch & Co. and had a front-row seat at the go-go markets of the late 1960s, mid-1980s and late 1990s, the brutal bear market of 1973-74, and […]

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