Back to the Future: Euro, Sterling Bid, Dollar-Bloc Heavy

There has been a dominant theme in the foreign exchange market that had seemed to waver in recent days, but has returned in force today.  That theme is about the divergent performance of the dollar, which makes it difficult to discuss the greenback in general.  Essentially, that theme is for the euro and sterling to […]

Japan, Canada and Australia Bear Brunt of US Dollar Strength

The US dollar is broadly higher.  While the euro and sterling are confined to recent ranges, the yen and dollar-bloc currencies are breaking down.  The Canadian dollar is slipping to new multi-year lows ahead of tomorrow’s central bank meeting.   The Australian dollar is poised to set new multi-year lows itself ahead of tomorrow’s CPI report. […]

The Pound Is Sterling as Retail Sales Surge

In a mostly quiet pre-weekend session, sterling jumped more than a cent in response to news of a shockingly strong retail sales increase of 2.6%.  The consensus was for less than 0.5%.  On a year-over-year basis, the 5.3% increase is the best nearly a decade. There had been some concern that the UK economic momentum was […]

The Best Introduction to the Woes of the Turkish economy

Nope, it is not one of my columns. It is an article by University of Maryland’s Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan. Here is how my friend Murat Ucer summarized it in his Turkish economic data program Turkey Data Monitor: Open F/X positions or so-called “currency mismatches” are always a source of concern in emerging markets.  This recent Voxeu […]

Short Take on Latest Turkish Data: General Themes

We had/are having important data this week in Turkey. I already wrote about consumer confidence in my latest post, and let me try to bring out a few general themes from the other releases rather than try to examine each in detail; after all, you have the analyst/market economist reports for that. External Rebalancing: The […]

Turkish Energy Undersecretary’s “read my lips” moment

Turkish Energy Undersecretary Metin Kilci was quoted by Turkish daily Hurriyet as saying that natural gas prices would not be hiked this year. Since Turkey imports its natural gas, the government has to raise prices when the lira depreciates, as you can see in a graph of natural gas prices and USDTRY: The Undersecretary is […]

Sterling Pounded, Euro Resilient in Face of Dovish Draghi

The main development in the foreign exchange market, as participants await the US jobs data, has been the drop in sterling following the disappointing industrial output data.   Recall that in November, the UK’s manufacturing PMI rose to a new 2-year high of 58.1 from 56.5. It had encouraged economists to look for a gain of […]

Japan’s Market Re-Opens, Taking Yen Up and Nikkei Down

The Japanese market re-opened after an extended holiday closure and pushed the dollar down against the yen to test the pre-weekend low near the 20-day moving average (~JPY104.15), below which it has not traded since early November.  The Nikkei gapped lower and proceeded to shed 2.3%, led by consumer services and telecoms.  It is the sharpest […]