Critical Week for the Turkish economy

At first look, the domestic economic agenda looks light this week, with purchasing managers’ indices, preliminary exports and inflation being the main data releases. However, it may end up being the make-or-break week for Turkish assets, and eventually for the economy. The intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column pretty much sums up […]

The tsar and the sultan (queen) meddle with monetary policy

Governor Erdem Başçı did indeed save the best for last during his briefing on the Central Bank’s first Inflation Report of the year on Jan. 28. At the Q&A session, he said the monetary policy committee (MPC) would cut interest rates at an emergency meeting on Feb. 4 if annual inflation fell more than one percentage point in January. Here is […]

Turkish Economy Living on Borrowed Time

I looked at emerging market (EM) exchange rates against the dollar on the night of Dec. 17, right before the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) interest rate decision. The Turkish Lira was the second most depreciated currency against the dollar, right after the Russian ruble. Here the into. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Turkey: The markets’ Cinderella Man

Seen as one of the most vulnerable emerging markets (EMs) not too long ago, Turkey is on a Cinderella run, attracting significant capital inflows. Foreigners’ net equity and bond investments rose by $0.9 and 1.4 billion respectively during the last four weeks. Here is the intro. to my latest Hurriyet Daily News (HDN) column, where […]

Can Russia Escape Dollar Dependence?

Russian president Vladimir Putin is determined to wean his country off the dollar, or so he says. In July, after insisting that the international monetary system depended too much “on the U.S. dollar, or, to be precise, on the monetary and financial policy of the U.S. authorities,” Putin signed off on a new BRICS development […]

Beware of Corrective Forces

The US dollar rose against most of the major currencies over the past week.  The main exception was the Japanese yen.  The combination of the decline in US yields to new 12-month lows, the drop in equities (S&P 500 reached 3-month lows, and the heightened geopolitical anxiety appears to have prompted a further reduction of short […]

Great Graphic: Growing Currency Mismatch?

Investors and policy makers generally seem to recognize that the prolonged period of low interest rates and low volatility provides fertile ground for its opposite.  It facilitates excessive risk taking.  The excessive risk taking can take on many forms and employs various vehicles. Recently Yellen singled out a couple of sectors in the equity market […]

Hurling BRICS at the World Bank and the $

Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa (the “BRICS”) made a splash last week with the official launch of their new development bank.  The backers made no secret of their intention to challenge the way things are done in the established international financial and monetary architecture. The irony is that India and China are the […]

An Independent Scotland Risks a Greek Tragedy

This will not be my last look at Scottish independence between now and the September 18 referendum but it will keep us going for now. I urge readers in other parts of the UK not to switch off now. It matters, and it matters rather a lot. Independence is not all about economics but if […]

Don’t Blame ‘Superpound’ for Britain’s Export Woes

Official figures a few days ago for industrial production in Britain produced a surprise. And, for once, it was not a pleasant one. Overall industrial output fell by 0.7% between April and May and within that manufacturing recorded a hefty 1.3% drop. It was not the only disappointment. Britain’s trade deficit widened from £2.1bn in […]

1 2 3 35