The Most Common Error in Stock Market Research

There is a very common research mistake. It is pervasive in Wall Street research, even that presented by the big-name firms. My academic friends are not immune, partly because they have their own set of incentives. My mission in this post is fourfold: Explain the problem in a way that it can be readily understood; […]

2013 Investment Preview

This post originally appeared on Seeking Alpha last week.  I enjoy a wide following there, and I appreciate the opportunity to participate in their annual series.  As I note at the beginning of the interview, this is a very valuable resource.  I share the interview with readers of “A Dash” with the permission of Seeking […]

The Market in a Minute

If the old saying on Wall Street “as January goes, so does the rest of the year” holds true, investors ought to be in good shape in 2013, as the S&P 500 logged its second week of gains, rising 0.4% last week for a YTD gain of 3.22%. As earnings season kicks into high gear […]

The Rich Got $17 Trillion Richer

Despite the many negative headlines, 2012 was a good year for markets. Listed below is a rough snapshot of total returns in USD – most asset classes returned double-digits. 2012 was a year to look through pessimism – how did your PA do? I would estimate that Global Financial Wealth rose by $17,500,000,000,000 to $162 trillion (I ignore […]

A Word About Portfolio Rebalancing

On Tuesday’s Bloomberg Surveillance show, Tom Keene referenced some of my bullet points from Keep Investing Simple. (One bullet was to Ignore the Chattering Class, but I was not referring to Tom, whom I have a great deal of respect for). Live TV being what it is, we briefly touched upon rebalancing, but gave it short shrift. A few […]

Mediocrity Strikes Again

It’s true for stocks, it’s true for bonds—yes, it’s even true for hedge funds. As The Economist reminds, delivering market-beating performance over time relative to a conventional asset mix is tough, and the financial wizards in the land of hedge funds aren’t immune. “A simple-minded investment portfolio—60% of it in shares and the rest in sovereign bonds—has delivered […]

Review of Major Asset Classes

The fiscal cliff is drawing closer in the US as the recession in Europe rolls on, but the major asset classes overall posted a modest gain for November. The Global Market Index (GMI) earned 0.8% last month and is up 9.8% on the year. The big winner in November: foreign stocks in developed markets as […]

The Market In a Minute

In spite of starting on the downside, markets managed to eke out gains last week, with the S&P 500 SPY +0.45%  gaining a fraction of a percent, behind the prior weeks’ strong gains. Headline risks from Europe and the U.S. fiscal-cliff are being offset by stronger U.S. GDP data, home sales and consumer confidence figures. […]

QE4 vs. Dead Cat Bounce

click for updated futures   Since the market began its retrenchment a month ago, we have seen rallies on weak volume and selloffs on stronger volume. Historically, these are the characteristics of Dead Cat Bounces and softer rallies destined to fail. But over the past few years, we have also seen markets rally on expectations […]