A month ago, I examined the information content of the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators. The August release (for June data) is out. There’s substantial variation in the implied outlook across economies. Figure 1: Normalized Composite Leading Indicators for US (blue), euro area (salmon) and Japan (green). Above 100 indicates expansion, below contraction. Dashed line at […]
It has been my thesis for some time that we are seeing a secular change in consumption patterns in the United States. This will have grave implications for a world economy used to seeing the American consumer as an economic growth engine and consumer of first choice. Retail sales in the United States have fallen […]
I am ordinarily gloomy about the public policy process in India. But for a welcome change, the quality of staff work in the draft direct tax code, which has been put out for discussion, is outstanding. Originally published at Ajay Shah’s blog and reproduced here with the author’s permission.
The usual concern about the US-China balance of economic and political power is couched in terms of our relative international payments positions. We’ve run a large current account deficit in recent years (imports above exports); they still have – by some measures – the largest current account surplus (exports above imports) even seen in a major […]
In my last entry I tried to set out the necessary shifts over the next few years as the world, and especially China and the US, works out its imbalances. These shifts will take place, I am pretty sure, but they can do so under a “good” scenario and a “bad” scenario. So what does […]
By coincidence I had two OpEd pieces that came out last week, one in the WSJ and the other in the Financial Times. The latter came about because about a month ago Martin Wolf asked me to write a piece based on my June 20 entry. The former came about on the previous Friday when […]
Here are more predictions of bust or even doom for China. I doubt any of this is founded on adequate information or analysis, so these are just WAGs. But interesting. “The Coming Collapse of The Chinese Economy“, Professor Ching-hsi Chang, The Epoch Times, 25 August 2005 “China has become a giant ponzi scheme“, Andy Xie, […]