Leading Indicators: Key Economies and the BRICs

A month ago, I examined the information content of the OECD’s Composite Leading Indicators. The August release (for June data) is out. There’s substantial variation in the implied outlook across economies. Figure 1: Normalized Composite Leading Indicators for US (blue), euro area (salmon) and Japan (green). Above 100 indicates expansion, below contraction. Dashed line at […]

Impressive Piece of Work

I am ordinarily gloomy about the public policy process in India. But for a welcome change, the quality of staff work in the draft direct tax code, which has been put out for discussion, is outstanding. Originally published at Ajay Shah’s blog and reproduced here with the author’s permission.

China Rising, Rent-Seeking Version

The usual concern about the US-China balance of economic and political power is couched in terms of our relative international payments positions.  We’ve run a large current account deficit in recent years (imports above exports); they still have – by some measures – the largest current account surplus (exports above imports) even seen in a major […]

Will China Collapse?

Here are more predictions of bust or even doom for China.  I doubt any of this is founded on adequate information or analysis, so these are just WAGs.  But interesting. “The Coming Collapse of The Chinese Economy“, Professor Ching-hsi Chang, The Epoch Times, 25 August 2005 “China has become a giant ponzi scheme“, Andy Xie, […]

1 74 75 76