China’s Financial Risk

Three years ago I called attention to the NYU Stern Volatility Laboratory. Since then it’s grown into an even more amazing resource, giving anyone access to constantly updated information about financial conditions in dozens of countries around the globe. Of particular interest are recent changes in their measure of the systemic risk posed by financial institutions. The basic […]

Can Abe Build Support for Security Reforms?

Even as regional challenges to Japan’s security have intensified, the domestic debate over security reforms continues to reveal deep divisions in Japan. Since coming into office a year and a half ago, the Shinzo Abe cabinet has sought an overhaul of its security policy, including a revision of the U.S.-Japan Defense Cooperation guidelines that shape alliance military […]

The Yen Continues to Surprise

There have arguably been two significant surprises in the capital markets this year, the strength of the yen and US Treasuries.  The two are related. The dollar-yen rate appears particularly sensitive to US interest rates.    The yen (not dollar) moves in the opposite direction of US 10-year Treasury yield two-thirds of the time of the past […]

Japan May Strike Trade Deal With Europe Before the U.S.

Some US officials have suggested that if Japan does not cede to US demands that it should be dropped from the Trans-Pacific Partnership negotiations. This might be a rhetorical zeal and part of the negotiating process. If it is genuine, it is a risky course and could be a self-defeating exercise. Prime Minister Abe did not appear […]